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Volume 41, Issue 2 (2026)
GeoRes 2026, 41(2): 1001-1011 |
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History
Received: 2026/08/2 | Accepted: 2026/08/23 | Published: 2026/07/19
Received: 2026/08/2 | Accepted: 2026/08/23 | Published: 2026/07/19
How to cite this article
Ejtemaei B, Moghtaderi G. Spatial Analysis of Demographic Changes and Socio-Economic Indicators of Rural Settlements in Farashband County during the Period 1996 to 2016. GeoRes 2026; 41 (2) :1001-1011
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Abstract (68 Views)
Aims: Demographic changes and transformations in socio-economic indicators of rural settlements are critical for spatial planning and sustainable rural development. This study spatially analyzes demographic changes and socio-economic indicators in the rural settlements of Farashband County during the period from 1996 to 2016, aiming to identify the prevailing spatial patterns governing these transformations.
Methodology: This applied research adopts a descriptive-analytical methodology. The statistical population comprises 35 rural settlements with complete data from the general population and housing censuses of 1996, 2006, and 2016. Demographic and socio-economic indicators including population growth rate, literacy rate, employment rate, and unemployment rate were extracted from census datasets. Spatial patterns were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Moran's I autocorrelation index, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, which enabled the identification of spatial clusters, hotspots, and underlying determinants of population change.
Findings: Results revealed that most rural settlements experienced population decline or negligible growth, with only a limited number exhibiting positive trends. Spatial analysis indicated the presence of distinct concentrations in population distribution and socio-economic indicators, highlighting notable disparities among settlements. Furthermore, OLS regression confirmed that employment and literacy rates have a statistically significant relationship with demographic changes, accounting for a substantial portion of the variance observed in rural population dynamics.
Conclusion: The spatial pattern of demographic changes and socio-economic indicators across Farashband County is markedly non-uniform, with considerable heterogeneity among rural settlements. Thus, development planning must be tailored to each settlement's spatial context, requiring strengthened employment opportunities, improved public services, and special attention to declining areas. Such targeted interventions are essential to curb the intensification of spatial inequalities and reverse the ongoing trend of rural depopulation, thereby fostering more balanced and sustainable development countywide.
Methodology: This applied research adopts a descriptive-analytical methodology. The statistical population comprises 35 rural settlements with complete data from the general population and housing censuses of 1996, 2006, and 2016. Demographic and socio-economic indicators including population growth rate, literacy rate, employment rate, and unemployment rate were extracted from census datasets. Spatial patterns were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Moran's I autocorrelation index, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, which enabled the identification of spatial clusters, hotspots, and underlying determinants of population change.
Findings: Results revealed that most rural settlements experienced population decline or negligible growth, with only a limited number exhibiting positive trends. Spatial analysis indicated the presence of distinct concentrations in population distribution and socio-economic indicators, highlighting notable disparities among settlements. Furthermore, OLS regression confirmed that employment and literacy rates have a statistically significant relationship with demographic changes, accounting for a substantial portion of the variance observed in rural population dynamics.
Conclusion: The spatial pattern of demographic changes and socio-economic indicators across Farashband County is markedly non-uniform, with considerable heterogeneity among rural settlements. Thus, development planning must be tailored to each settlement's spatial context, requiring strengthened employment opportunities, improved public services, and special attention to declining areas. Such targeted interventions are essential to curb the intensification of spatial inequalities and reverse the ongoing trend of rural depopulation, thereby fostering more balanced and sustainable development countywide.