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Volume 40, Issue 1 (2025)
GeoRes 2025, 40(1): 11-22 |
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Received: 2024/11/23 | Accepted: 2025/01/8 | Published: 2025/01/25
Received: 2024/11/23 | Accepted: 2025/01/8 | Published: 2025/01/25
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Tahmas Nezhad M, Saberi H, Khademolhoseiny A, Mahkoui H. Event-Oriented Scenario Planning of Isfahan Metropolis. GeoRes 2025; 40 (1) :11-22
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1- “Department of Geography and Urban Planning” and “Tourism Research Center”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2- “Department of Geography” and “Tourism Research Center”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2- “Department of Geography” and “Tourism Research Center”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
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Background
In recent years, cities have increasingly moved toward event-oriented development to enhance infrastructure, drive economic growth, and improve their public image. Global competition, economic changes, and the growing importance of culture as a driver of development have led cities to place special emphasis on hosting cultural and social events. In Iran, despite its rich cultural potential, urban event-oriented development has received relatively little research attention, highlighting the need for comprehensive planning.
Previous Studies
Various domestic and international studies have examined different aspects of urban event-oriented development. Heo et al. (2022) have demonstrated that recognizing and managing seasonal events can enhance the vibrancy of host cities. Maguire (2019) has warned that poor planning and management of events can lead to significant economic and social damages. Fernandez et al. (2015) have confirmed the positive impact of infrastructure, events, tourist attractions, and cultural heritage on the urban image. Rasoli et al. (2023) proposed event-based regeneration as a strategy for organizing deteriorated urban fabrics. Jangjoo et al. (2021) also emphasized the importance of comprehensive planning regarding the city’s vision, stakeholder relations, event resources, marketing, monitoring, and sustainability. Furthermore, Mahjoub Jalali et al. (2020), Alimardani and Khabaz (2018), and Nooraie and Sattari (2018) have discussed the role of cultural, social, and infrastructural components in the success or failure of the urban event-oriented process.
Aim(s)
The main objective of this study was to develop event-oriented scenarios for the metropolis of Isfahan. The secondary objectives included identifying the most important factors influencing the development of event-oriented approaches in Isfahan and assessing the degree of influence and dependency of key drivers in formulating scenarios related to the future state of event-oriented development in the metropolis.
Research Type
This study was applied in terms of its objective, future-oriented in terms of its timeframe, and qualitative in nature regarding the type of data collected.
Research Society, Place, and Time
This study was conducted in 2024 in the metropolis of Isfahan. The statistical population consisted of experts (professors, specialists, and practitioners) in the fields of land use planning, geography and tourism planning, and urban geography and planning.
Sampling Method and Number
In this study, a purposive non-random sampling method was used for sample selection. The statistical population consisted of 10 experts (professors, specialists, and practitioners) in the fields of land use planning, geography and tourism planning, and urban geography and planning. The samples were selected purposively
Used Devices & Materials
To develop the research literature, a documentary and library-based method was employed, utilizing sources such as the internet, books, articles, theses, and project reports. The main tool for data collection in the fieldwork section was a questionnaire, which was designed based on five criteria and 26 items, and measured using a five-point Likert scale. Additionally, the MICMAC software was used to analyze the relationships among variables, and Scenario Wizard software was employed during the scenario development stage. In-depth interviews with experts and the organization of specialized panels were also used to collect and complete the data
Findings by Text
In this study, a two-round Delphi method was employed, involving the participation of 10 experts in the fields of land use planning, urban geography and planning, and tourism (Table 1), with the aim of identifying the key drivers influencing event-oriented development in the metropolis of Isfahan. Factors such as amenities and facilities, ease of access, the attractiveness of historical sites, security, diversity of activities, and environmental quality were among the most important elements affecting the attraction and presence of participants at events.
Table 1) Demographic information of interviewees
Based on the Delphi analysis and the results of expert interviews, 26 parameters were identified across five main dimensions (Table 2), including transportation facilities, accommodation and catering services, event location and space, safety and security, and accessibility criteria. These parameters were then evaluated in a 26×26 cross-impact analysis matrix (Table 3), with the matrix filling rate calculated at 66.77%.
Table 2) Factors influencing event-orientation in Isfahan metropolis
Table 3) The direct and indirect effects of parameters on each other
The analysis of the degree of influence and dependency of each variable showed that certain factors, such as the number of historical sites, open spaces, parks, and religious centers, played a key role (Table 4). Furthermore, the distribution of variables based on their influence and dependency was also examined in a two-dimensional space (Table 5 and Figure 1)
Table 4) Distribution of parameters based on their classification
Figure 1. The status of parameters based on the direct changes of the parameters
Table 5. Key Drivers Directly and Indirectly Influencing Urban Prosperity in Isfahan Metropolis
The direct and indirect relationships among the variables were analyzed based on the intensity and nature of the relationships between the variables. Their clustering was determined accordingly, and the key drivers and strategic variables influencing the event-oriented system of the metropolis of Isfahan were identified (Table 6 for direct relationships; Table 7 for indirect relationships). In the MICMAC software analyses, the distribution map of variables affecting event-oriented development in Isfahan was also plotted (Figure 2 for direct relationships and Figure 3 for indirect relationships)
Table 6. Key factors, scenarios, status, and assumptions for event-orientation of Isfahan metropolis
Figure 2. Direct relationships between the parameters
Figure 3. Distribution of parameters based on indirect impacts between the parameters.
Table 7. Status of each key factor by scenario - Isfahan metropolis
Finally, the key drivers affecting the future of event-oriented development in the city were identified, which could determine the direction of future policymaking (Table 8).
In recent years, cities have increasingly moved toward event-oriented development to enhance infrastructure, drive economic growth, and improve their public image. Global competition, economic changes, and the growing importance of culture as a driver of development have led cities to place special emphasis on hosting cultural and social events. In Iran, despite its rich cultural potential, urban event-oriented development has received relatively little research attention, highlighting the need for comprehensive planning.
Previous Studies
Various domestic and international studies have examined different aspects of urban event-oriented development. Heo et al. (2022) have demonstrated that recognizing and managing seasonal events can enhance the vibrancy of host cities. Maguire (2019) has warned that poor planning and management of events can lead to significant economic and social damages. Fernandez et al. (2015) have confirmed the positive impact of infrastructure, events, tourist attractions, and cultural heritage on the urban image. Rasoli et al. (2023) proposed event-based regeneration as a strategy for organizing deteriorated urban fabrics. Jangjoo et al. (2021) also emphasized the importance of comprehensive planning regarding the city’s vision, stakeholder relations, event resources, marketing, monitoring, and sustainability. Furthermore, Mahjoub Jalali et al. (2020), Alimardani and Khabaz (2018), and Nooraie and Sattari (2018) have discussed the role of cultural, social, and infrastructural components in the success or failure of the urban event-oriented process.
Aim(s)
The main objective of this study was to develop event-oriented scenarios for the metropolis of Isfahan. The secondary objectives included identifying the most important factors influencing the development of event-oriented approaches in Isfahan and assessing the degree of influence and dependency of key drivers in formulating scenarios related to the future state of event-oriented development in the metropolis.
Research Type
This study was applied in terms of its objective, future-oriented in terms of its timeframe, and qualitative in nature regarding the type of data collected.
Research Society, Place, and Time
This study was conducted in 2024 in the metropolis of Isfahan. The statistical population consisted of experts (professors, specialists, and practitioners) in the fields of land use planning, geography and tourism planning, and urban geography and planning.
Sampling Method and Number
In this study, a purposive non-random sampling method was used for sample selection. The statistical population consisted of 10 experts (professors, specialists, and practitioners) in the fields of land use planning, geography and tourism planning, and urban geography and planning. The samples were selected purposively
Used Devices & Materials
To develop the research literature, a documentary and library-based method was employed, utilizing sources such as the internet, books, articles, theses, and project reports. The main tool for data collection in the fieldwork section was a questionnaire, which was designed based on five criteria and 26 items, and measured using a five-point Likert scale. Additionally, the MICMAC software was used to analyze the relationships among variables, and Scenario Wizard software was employed during the scenario development stage. In-depth interviews with experts and the organization of specialized panels were also used to collect and complete the data
Findings by Text
In this study, a two-round Delphi method was employed, involving the participation of 10 experts in the fields of land use planning, urban geography and planning, and tourism (Table 1), with the aim of identifying the key drivers influencing event-oriented development in the metropolis of Isfahan. Factors such as amenities and facilities, ease of access, the attractiveness of historical sites, security, diversity of activities, and environmental quality were among the most important elements affecting the attraction and presence of participants at events.
Table 1) Demographic information of interviewees
Based on the Delphi analysis and the results of expert interviews, 26 parameters were identified across five main dimensions (Table 2), including transportation facilities, accommodation and catering services, event location and space, safety and security, and accessibility criteria. These parameters were then evaluated in a 26×26 cross-impact analysis matrix (Table 3), with the matrix filling rate calculated at 66.77%.
Table 2) Factors influencing event-orientation in Isfahan metropolis
Table 3) The direct and indirect effects of parameters on each other
The analysis of the degree of influence and dependency of each variable showed that certain factors, such as the number of historical sites, open spaces, parks, and religious centers, played a key role (Table 4). Furthermore, the distribution of variables based on their influence and dependency was also examined in a two-dimensional space (Table 5 and Figure 1)
Table 4) Distribution of parameters based on their classification
Figure 1. The status of parameters based on the direct changes of the parameters
Table 5. Key Drivers Directly and Indirectly Influencing Urban Prosperity in Isfahan Metropolis
The direct and indirect relationships among the variables were analyzed based on the intensity and nature of the relationships between the variables. Their clustering was determined accordingly, and the key drivers and strategic variables influencing the event-oriented system of the metropolis of Isfahan were identified (Table 6 for direct relationships; Table 7 for indirect relationships). In the MICMAC software analyses, the distribution map of variables affecting event-oriented development in Isfahan was also plotted (Figure 2 for direct relationships and Figure 3 for indirect relationships)
Table 6. Key factors, scenarios, status, and assumptions for event-orientation of Isfahan metropolis
Figure 2. Direct relationships between the parameters
Figure 3. Distribution of parameters based on indirect impacts between the parameters.
Table 7. Status of each key factor by scenario - Isfahan metropolis
Finally, the key drivers affecting the future of event-oriented development in the city were identified, which could determine the direction of future policymaking (Table 8).
Table 8. Coefficients, number, and percentage of each status by scenario based on the Three-Stage spectrum
Main Comparisons to Similar Studies
The findings of this study align with previous research by Zare et al. (2022), Nooraie & Sattari (2018), Shirmohammadi et al. (2020), Nazari et al. (2016), Arjang (2012), Hosseini et al. (2023), Oppermann (1996), and Crouch & Brent Ritchie (1997), particularly in identifying key drivers and structural factors influencing event-oriented urban development. However, while prior studies mainly described event-orientation in individual communities and focused on social, economic, and physical impacts or management and cultural issues, this study uniquely identifies and evaluates key drivers and probable scenarios for event-driven urban development, filling a notable research gap. Consistent with Nooraie & Sattari (2018), this research highlights weaknesses in hotel infrastructure, parking facilities, museums, and public spaces as critical issues for Isfahan’s event development. Additionally, similar to Shirmohammadi et al. (2020), the present study emphasized the significant impact of structural elements (infrastructure, attractions, facilities, and services) on the emotional image of tourist destinations. Despite slight differences in some indicators and the integration of both qualitative and quantitative criteria in previous works, the overall methodological approach and focus on strategic factors are in strong agreement with this study's outcomes.
Suggestions
To enhance event-oriented development in Isfahan and prevent a critical scenario, recommendations include focusing on key drivers and factors, revising event management, improving infrastructure and services, identifying potential areas, increasing business opportunities and investment, improving accessibility and streets, creating historical pedestrian pathways, raising residents' awareness of the value of historical fabric, and promoting cultural events. These actions can create a foundation for better event-oriented development.
Conclusion
Among the four scenarios for Isfahan, the first and second scenarios represent ideal and favorable conditions (the driving scenario), the third scenario is relatively favorable and intermediate, and the fourth scenario indicates a critical and undesirable future for Isfahan’s event-oriented development. Among these, environmental quality had the greatest impact, highlighting the importance of this factor in event-oriented development to increase the likelihood of scenario one and avoid scenario four.
Acknowledgments: The authors express their gratitude to the participants of the questionnaire, the supervising and consulting professors, and all those who contributed to the field operations of the research.
Ethical Permission: The authors have adhered to the principles and standards of academic ethics, such as integrity, confidentiality, honesty, and others.
Conflict of Interest: This article is derived from part of the doctoral dissertation of the first author titled "Futures Research on Urban Prosperity with a Focus on Event-Oriented Development (Case Study: Isfahan Metropolis)," supervised by Dr. Hamid Saberi and Dr. Ahmad Khadem-Hosseini at Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch. The advisor for this dissertation is Dr. Hojjat Mahkouei, Associate Professor at Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch.
Author Contributions: Tahmas Nazhad M (First Author): Introduction writer, methodologist, Main researcher (40%); Saberi H (Second Author): Principal researcher, statistical analyst, discussion writer (40%); Khademolhosseini A (Third Author); Assistant researcher (10%); Mahkoei H(Fourth Author): Assistant researcher (10%)
Funding: No funding sources to report.
Keywords:
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