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Volume 40, Issue 1 (2025)
GeoRes 2025, 40(1): 11-22 |
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Received: 2024/11/23 | Accepted: 2025/01/8 | Published: 2025/01/25
Received: 2024/11/23 | Accepted: 2025/01/8 | Published: 2025/01/25
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Tahmas Nezhad M, Saberi H, Khademolhoseiny A, Mahkoui H. Event-Oriented Scenario Planning of Isfahan Metropolis. GeoRes 2025; 40 (1) :11-22
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1- “Department of Geography and Urban Planning” and “Tourism Research Center”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2- “Department of Geography” and “Tourism Research Center”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2- “Department of Geography” and “Tourism Research Center”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
Abstract (434 Views)
Aims: The main goal of this research is to develop event-based scenarios in the Isfahan metropolis, and the secondary goals include identifying the most important factors affecting the development of event-based development in the Isfahan metropolis, estimating the degree of influence and impact of key drivers in developing scenarios regarding the future status of event-based development in the Isfahan metropolis.
Methodology: This qualitative research was carried out in 2024 in the metropolis of Isfahan. In order to identify drivers using targeted non-random sampling, the opinions of 10 urban planning experts and specialists were taken and analyzed in Mic Mac software. In order to compile the scenarios facing the metropolis of Isfahan in the event-oriented field, the opinions of 10 experts in foresight were used to score the matrix of the states facing the descriptors.
Findings: The key factors influencing the event orientation of Isfahan city included 13 factors: environmental quality, open spaces, public parking, number of parks, permeability, number of historical sites, shopping centers, number of religious centers, area of passages, number of restaurants, street pattern, visual appeal, and number of hotels. Of the four possible scenarios, the first and second scenarios were favorable and ideal conditions (leading scenario), scenario 3 was a relatively favorable scenario and had an intermediate state, and the fourth scenario showed a critical and unfavorable situation for the future of Isfahan's event-oriented situation. Among these, environmental quality and open spaces factors had the most impact, indicating the importance of these factors in the event management of Isfahan city in order to increase the probability of the first scenario occurring and avoid the fourth scenario.
Conclusion: The factors "environmental quality" and "open spaces" have the highest level of influence, and the factors "permeability", "street pattern" and "natural surveillance" have the highest influence on other indicators, and the distribution and dispersion of the indicators in the direct effect matrix diagram indicates the instability of the system.
Methodology: This qualitative research was carried out in 2024 in the metropolis of Isfahan. In order to identify drivers using targeted non-random sampling, the opinions of 10 urban planning experts and specialists were taken and analyzed in Mic Mac software. In order to compile the scenarios facing the metropolis of Isfahan in the event-oriented field, the opinions of 10 experts in foresight were used to score the matrix of the states facing the descriptors.
Findings: The key factors influencing the event orientation of Isfahan city included 13 factors: environmental quality, open spaces, public parking, number of parks, permeability, number of historical sites, shopping centers, number of religious centers, area of passages, number of restaurants, street pattern, visual appeal, and number of hotels. Of the four possible scenarios, the first and second scenarios were favorable and ideal conditions (leading scenario), scenario 3 was a relatively favorable scenario and had an intermediate state, and the fourth scenario showed a critical and unfavorable situation for the future of Isfahan's event-oriented situation. Among these, environmental quality and open spaces factors had the most impact, indicating the importance of these factors in the event management of Isfahan city in order to increase the probability of the first scenario occurring and avoid the fourth scenario.
Conclusion: The factors "environmental quality" and "open spaces" have the highest level of influence, and the factors "permeability", "street pattern" and "natural surveillance" have the highest influence on other indicators, and the distribution and dispersion of the indicators in the direct effect matrix diagram indicates the instability of the system.
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