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:: Volume 35, Issue 4 (2020) ::
geores 2020, 35(4): 0-0 Back to browse issues page
Impact analysis of the environmental changes index of urban sprawl on the severe weather storm (Case studies: Tehran, Mashhad, Ankara and Istanbul)
Ghazaleh Rabbani *
Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh , ghazaleh.rabbani@gmail.com
Abstract:   (128 Views)
Aims and Backgrounds: The main aim of this paper is to analyze the environmental change index of urban sprawls and its relationship with the severe weather threat index (SWEAT). This issue, as the main challenge, provides a way for research by studying the severity of climate change and providing a quantitative approach to correlate it with the expanded urban sprawl ratio within four major cities of Iran and Turkey in the current situation (2018) and future probabilities (2030).
Methodology: For this purpose, severe weather storm index data were extracted from upper-air level data in the radiosonde stations of Tehran, Mashhad, Ankara, and Istanbul. Also, urban sprawl data were obtained from global data of the extent of the human settlements. Analysis of urban sprawl data revealed that the cities of Ankara and Istanbul have the highest physical development, respectively.
Findings: However, according to the model of urban sprawl prospect, the most severe rate of urban sprawl is predicted for the city of Tehran. Based on the calculation of the environmental change index (ΔY) caused by sprawl dispersion in the future, it was determined that the values ​​of this index will be estimated between 0.61 to 1.98 for the 4 urban case studies, where the most severe index (1.98) can be calculated for the city Tehran.
Conclusion: Calculation of SWEAT in 2018 showed that the urban sprawl development and its resulting environmental changes had a significant effect on increasing occurrences of severe weather storms in all urban areas with a correlation rate of 0.913. The forecast of this index also showed that the average severe weather storm index will increase between 19 to 118 percent by 2030 in all urban areas, in which the most value is predictable for the city of Tehran.
Keywords: Urban Sprawl, Statistical Analysis, Urban Development, Environmental Change Index, Severe Weather Threat Index
     
Article Type: Original Research | Subject: Urban Planning
Received: 2020/08/9 | Accepted: 2020/09/2 | Published: 2020/09/8
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Rabbani G. Impact analysis of the environmental changes index of urban sprawl on the severe weather storm (Case studies: Tehran, Mashhad, Ankara and Istanbul). geores. 2020; 35 (4)
URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-957-en.html


Volume 35, Issue 4 (2020) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal
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