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Received: 2025/08/2 | Accepted: 2025/08/31
Received: 2025/08/2 | Accepted: 2025/08/31
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1- Department of Geography and Urban Planning and Tourism Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2- Department of Geography and Urban Planning and Tourism Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran. ,H_saberi@par.iaun.ac.ir
2- Department of Geography and Urban Planning and Tourism Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran. ,
Abstract (134 Views)
Aims: The main objective of this study is to develop scenarios for the development of smart tourism in the metropolis of Isfahan. The secondary objectives include: identifying the most influential factors affecting smart tourism, assessing the degree of influence and dependence of key driving forces in the scenario-building process, and utilizing the capabilities of analytical software such as MICMAC and Scenario Wizard to analyze the future status of smart tourism in the metropolis of Isfahan.
Methodology: This research is of a mixed-methods nature and was conducted in the year (2025). To identify the key drivers, a purposive non-random sampling method (snowball sampling) was employedand. The perspectives of 15 experts in the fields of urban planning as well as domestic and international tourism were examined. This was done through scoring the possible states of the descriptors within a scenario matrix, which was subsequently analyzed using the MICMAC software.
Findings: Smart tourism in Isfahan is influenced by ten key driving forces. Three plausible scenarios have been identified for the future development of smart tourism in the city. The first scenario represents an ideal and desirable state; the second reflects a relatively favorable and moderate condition; and the third depicts an undesirable and critical future. The key factors with the highest level of influence play a decisive role in increasing the likelihood of realizing the first scenario and in preventing the occurrence of the third scenario, highlighting their strategic importance in the policymaking of smart tourism in Isfahan.
Conclusion: Tourism websites and applications had the greatest direct impact, while investment in smart tourism projects had the highest indirect impact. In contrast, online advertising and the use of GPS had the least influence. Moreover, the distribution pattern of the indicators in the direct effects matrix reflects an unstable condition in the system’s structure.
Methodology: This research is of a mixed-methods nature and was conducted in the year (2025). To identify the key drivers, a purposive non-random sampling method (snowball sampling) was employedand. The perspectives of 15 experts in the fields of urban planning as well as domestic and international tourism were examined. This was done through scoring the possible states of the descriptors within a scenario matrix, which was subsequently analyzed using the MICMAC software.
Findings: Smart tourism in Isfahan is influenced by ten key driving forces. Three plausible scenarios have been identified for the future development of smart tourism in the city. The first scenario represents an ideal and desirable state; the second reflects a relatively favorable and moderate condition; and the third depicts an undesirable and critical future. The key factors with the highest level of influence play a decisive role in increasing the likelihood of realizing the first scenario and in preventing the occurrence of the third scenario, highlighting their strategic importance in the policymaking of smart tourism in Isfahan.
Conclusion: Tourism websites and applications had the greatest direct impact, while investment in smart tourism projects had the highest indirect impact. In contrast, online advertising and the use of GPS had the least influence. Moreover, the distribution pattern of the indicators in the direct effects matrix reflects an unstable condition in the system’s structure.
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