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Volume 40, Issue 1 (2025)
GeoRes 2025, 40(1): 1001-1020 |
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Received: 2025/05/25 | Accepted: 2025/06/7
Received: 2025/05/25 | Accepted: 2025/06/7
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Vakili H. Foresight of Regeneration of Degraded Urban Areas in the Peripheral Regions of Metropolitan Cities. GeoRes 2025; 40 (1) :1001-1020
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URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-1716-en.html
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Authors
Hamideh Vakili *
Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran , vakiliihamideh3@gmail.com
Abstract (58 Views)
Aims: The main objective of this study was to identify key drivers, critical uncertainties, and to develop potential future scenarios for the regeneration of degraded urban areas in the peripheral regions of Mashhad.
Methodology: This applied research was conducted with a future studies approach and a descriptive-analytical method. Semi-structured interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data. Snowball sampling was applied, and ultimately 25 individuals were selected as the sample. The data were analyzed using a two-stage Delphi method, MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplication Applied to Classification) analysis, and multi-criteria statistical analysis. In the next step, future scenarios were designed using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis methods. The validity of the scenario writing results was evaluated by reviewing a panel of experts.
Findings: The drivers were categorized into key, sensitive, crisis-inducing, and low-impact groups based on two criteria: average importance and average uncertainty. Key drivers with high uncertainty included land and housing price changes, the rate of private investment absorption, and construction technology developments. Some drivers, such as government support policies and Mashhad Municipality policies, were categorized as sensitive. Drivers such as the development of the public transport network were considered crisis-inducing, while cultural regeneration policies had a low impact. The impact of drivers on various dimensions, such as infrastructure quality and social participation, was examined, revealing that drivers like government support policies and private investment absorption had the greatest impact. Finally, future scenarios for the regeneration of degraded urban areas were developed using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis methods.
Conclusion: Using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis methods, future scenarios for the regeneration of degraded urban areas in the peripheral regions of Mashhad were mapped, which can help decision-makers predict future trends and adopt more effective policies to enhance urban regeneration.
Methodology: This applied research was conducted with a future studies approach and a descriptive-analytical method. Semi-structured interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data. Snowball sampling was applied, and ultimately 25 individuals were selected as the sample. The data were analyzed using a two-stage Delphi method, MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplication Applied to Classification) analysis, and multi-criteria statistical analysis. In the next step, future scenarios were designed using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis methods. The validity of the scenario writing results was evaluated by reviewing a panel of experts.
Findings: The drivers were categorized into key, sensitive, crisis-inducing, and low-impact groups based on two criteria: average importance and average uncertainty. Key drivers with high uncertainty included land and housing price changes, the rate of private investment absorption, and construction technology developments. Some drivers, such as government support policies and Mashhad Municipality policies, were categorized as sensitive. Drivers such as the development of the public transport network were considered crisis-inducing, while cultural regeneration policies had a low impact. The impact of drivers on various dimensions, such as infrastructure quality and social participation, was examined, revealing that drivers like government support policies and private investment absorption had the greatest impact. Finally, future scenarios for the regeneration of degraded urban areas were developed using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis methods.
Conclusion: Using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis methods, future scenarios for the regeneration of degraded urban areas in the peripheral regions of Mashhad were mapped, which can help decision-makers predict future trends and adopt more effective policies to enhance urban regeneration.
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