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Volume 40, Issue 1 (2025)
GeoRes 2025, 40(1): 85-93 |
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Received: 2025/03/15 | Accepted: 2025/04/28 | Published: 2025/05/3
Received: 2025/03/15 | Accepted: 2025/04/28 | Published: 2025/05/3
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Vakili H. Foresight of Regeneration of Degraded Urban Areas in the Peripheral Regions of Mashhad Metropolis. GeoRes 2025; 40 (1) :85-93
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Authors
H. Vakili *
Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
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Background
The peripheral deteriorated urban fabrics of metropolises, especially in developing countries like Iran, face extensive physical, social, and economic challenges. Traditional renewal approaches are often ineffective, highlighting the need for forward-looking strategies for the effective regeneration of these areas. Futures studies can contribute to enhancing resilience, anticipating changes, and ensuring the long-term success of regeneration projects.
Previous Studies
Previous studies have shown that over 40% of urban expansion in developing countries takes place informally and without proper planning [UN-Habitat, 2022], and many traditional urban renewal approaches have failed to address this phenomenon effectively [Alpopi & Manole, 2013]. Recent researchers emphasize the need for integrated strategies that consider physical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions [Rogers, 2020]. Moreover, the experience of similar metropolises demonstrates that community participation plays a key role in the success of regeneration projects [Yang et al., 2022]. In the field of urban futures studies, recent research highlights the use of approaches such as strategic scenario planning and system dynamics modeling to improve planning accuracy and increase the likelihood of project success [Albrechts, 2005]. These studies indicate that the absence of foresight increases the risk of failure in regeneration projects and heightens the vulnerability of targeted areas [Healey, 2004].
Aim(s)
The main objective of this study was to identify key drivers, critical uncertainties, and develop plausible future scenarios for the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics in the peripheral areas of Mashhad.
Research Type
This study is an applied research and was conducted using a descriptive-analytical method with a futures studies approach.
Research Society, Place and Time
This study was conducted in the year 2024 in the city of Mashhad. The statistical population consisted of experts and specialists in the fields of urban planning, urban regeneration, and futures studies. The selection criteria for participants included a minimum of five years of relevant professional experience and familiarity with futures studies concepts.
Sampling Method and Number
In this study, a purposive (non-probability) sampling method was employed using the snowball technique.
In the first stage, 15 individuals were selected, including faculty members from Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, researchers in the field of urban regeneration, and senior experts from Mashhad Municipality.
Subsequently, additional participants were identified through referrals from these initial individuals, and the sampling process continued until theoretical saturation was reached. In total, the number of participants increased to 25.
Used Devices & Materials
For data collection, semi-structured interviews and specialized questionnaires using a five-point Likert scale were employed. The interviews were designed based on Inayatullah's (2008) standard protocol and were conducted with audio recording. After the interviews, the recordings were transcribed, and the validity of the data was assessed using member checking and double coding methods. In the analysis phase, the Micmac v6.1 software was used to map the Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI) in order to examine the relationships among the key drivers. For scenario development and evaluation, a combination of exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis was applied. Additionally, the data from the questionnaires were processed using multi-criteria statistical analysis methods.
Findings by Text
In this study, the key drivers influencing the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics in the peripheral areas of Mashhad were first identified and assessed using the MICMAC method (Cross-Impact Matrix). The statistical analysis categorized the drivers into four groups based on two indicators: "average importance" and "average uncertainty": Key drivers (high importance and high uncertainty), Sensitive drivers (high importance and low uncertainty), Crisis-prone drivers (low importance and high uncertainty), and Low-impact drivers (low importance and low uncertainty) (Table 1) presents this classification. Drivers such as changes in land and housing prices, private sector investment, developments in construction technologies, and government support policies were identified as key and sensitive factors determining the success or failure of regeneration efforts.
Table 1. Analysis of key drivers influencing the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics in the peripheral areas of Mashhad
In the next step, the impacts of these drivers on various dimensions of regeneration, such as infrastructure quality, social participation, social security, and sustainable development were examined (Table 2). Specifically, government support policies, policies of Mashhad Municipality, and the level of social security in neighborhoods had the highest average impact on regeneration indicators. Moreover, the standard deviation analysis revealed greater disagreement among experts regarding certain drivers, such as climate change.
Subsequently, using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis, three main scenarios were developed: "Bright Future" – where all drivers are in optimal condition, and the regeneration process is fully successful. "Fragile Future" – reflecting a general weakness in all drivers, leading to complete failure of the regeneration process. "Cautious Path" – representing a moderate and unstable situation, where success depends on precise decision-making and timely interventions. Finally, a ranking technique was used to evaluate the scenarios in terms of desirability and likelihood. The results showed that the "Cautious Path", with an average score of 4.2, was considered the most probable and programmatically feasible scenario. Although its attractiveness (3.9) was slightly lower than the "Bright Future" (4.8), it ranked higher in terms of likelihood (4.5). In contrast, the "Fragile Future" had the lowest desirability (2.1) and a low likelihood (3.7), making it the least favorable scenario. These findings underscore the necessity of planned and foresight-based interventions in the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics.
Table 2. Evaluation of the impact of drivers on the assessed dimensions using the Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI)
Main Comparisons to Similar Studies
In comparison with similar studies, the present research aligns with previous findings in emphasizing the importance of government support policies, attracting private sector investment, and infrastructure quality in the success of urban regeneration [Mirkatoli et al., 2012; Sorooshan, 2017; Soltani et al., 2015]. Similar to the work of Soltani et al., this study also demonstrated that infrastructure conditions, such as transportation, energy, and public services play a fundamental role in the effective implementation of regeneration programs. Furthermore, the findings are consistent with the views of Rasoli et al. (2023) regarding the necessity of resident participation and social acceptance of regeneration plans. In line with Amini et al. (2018), this research highlighted the significance of household economic conditions and internal migration as key challenges affecting regeneration success. At the urban policy level, the study echoes Farhadian et al. (2014) by addressing the role of municipalities and transparency in decision-making in improving the quality of redevelopment. It also identifies the development of smart services and cultural revitalization, similar to the findings of Shafaati et al. (2022), as crucial factors for the future of regeneration efforts.
Suggestions
Recommendations include expanding data sources to include up-to-date information from both governmental and private sectors to improve the accuracy of driver analysis. It is also suggested to analyze drivers at local, urban, and national levels to better understand their distinct impacts on regeneration. Evaluating the long-term effects of drivers can clarify future trends. Moreover, developing practical policies based on the driver analysis and scenarios can support urban decision-making. Finally, using multi-criteria analysis methods is recommended to improve the precision of driver classification and forecasting.
Conclusion
The key drivers influencing the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics are classified into four main categories including critical, sensitive, crisis-prone, and low-impact. Land price changes and private sector investment are among the most important critical drivers with high uncertainty. Government and municipal policies, though important, are more predictable and fall into the sensitive category. In contrast, factors such as public transportation development and cultural policies are categorized as crisis-prone and low-impact, respectively. For the regeneration of deteriorated areas in the peripheral zones of Mashhad, three future scenarios were developed: Bright Future, Fragile Future, and Cautious Path. Among them, the Cautious Path scenario received the highest score and was considered the most likely to occur.
Acknowledgments: None reported by the authors.
Ethical Permission: None reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: None reported by the authors.
Authors’ Contributions: Vakili H (First author), Main Researcher/Introduction Writer/Discussion Writer/ Methodologist/Statistical Analyst (100%)
Funding: None reported by the authors.
The peripheral deteriorated urban fabrics of metropolises, especially in developing countries like Iran, face extensive physical, social, and economic challenges. Traditional renewal approaches are often ineffective, highlighting the need for forward-looking strategies for the effective regeneration of these areas. Futures studies can contribute to enhancing resilience, anticipating changes, and ensuring the long-term success of regeneration projects.
Previous Studies
Previous studies have shown that over 40% of urban expansion in developing countries takes place informally and without proper planning [UN-Habitat, 2022], and many traditional urban renewal approaches have failed to address this phenomenon effectively [Alpopi & Manole, 2013]. Recent researchers emphasize the need for integrated strategies that consider physical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions [Rogers, 2020]. Moreover, the experience of similar metropolises demonstrates that community participation plays a key role in the success of regeneration projects [Yang et al., 2022]. In the field of urban futures studies, recent research highlights the use of approaches such as strategic scenario planning and system dynamics modeling to improve planning accuracy and increase the likelihood of project success [Albrechts, 2005]. These studies indicate that the absence of foresight increases the risk of failure in regeneration projects and heightens the vulnerability of targeted areas [Healey, 2004].
Aim(s)
The main objective of this study was to identify key drivers, critical uncertainties, and develop plausible future scenarios for the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics in the peripheral areas of Mashhad.
Research Type
This study is an applied research and was conducted using a descriptive-analytical method with a futures studies approach.
Research Society, Place and Time
This study was conducted in the year 2024 in the city of Mashhad. The statistical population consisted of experts and specialists in the fields of urban planning, urban regeneration, and futures studies. The selection criteria for participants included a minimum of five years of relevant professional experience and familiarity with futures studies concepts.
Sampling Method and Number
In this study, a purposive (non-probability) sampling method was employed using the snowball technique.
In the first stage, 15 individuals were selected, including faculty members from Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, researchers in the field of urban regeneration, and senior experts from Mashhad Municipality.
Subsequently, additional participants were identified through referrals from these initial individuals, and the sampling process continued until theoretical saturation was reached. In total, the number of participants increased to 25.
Used Devices & Materials
For data collection, semi-structured interviews and specialized questionnaires using a five-point Likert scale were employed. The interviews were designed based on Inayatullah's (2008) standard protocol and were conducted with audio recording. After the interviews, the recordings were transcribed, and the validity of the data was assessed using member checking and double coding methods. In the analysis phase, the Micmac v6.1 software was used to map the Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI) in order to examine the relationships among the key drivers. For scenario development and evaluation, a combination of exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis was applied. Additionally, the data from the questionnaires were processed using multi-criteria statistical analysis methods.
Findings by Text
In this study, the key drivers influencing the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics in the peripheral areas of Mashhad were first identified and assessed using the MICMAC method (Cross-Impact Matrix). The statistical analysis categorized the drivers into four groups based on two indicators: "average importance" and "average uncertainty": Key drivers (high importance and high uncertainty), Sensitive drivers (high importance and low uncertainty), Crisis-prone drivers (low importance and high uncertainty), and Low-impact drivers (low importance and low uncertainty) (Table 1) presents this classification. Drivers such as changes in land and housing prices, private sector investment, developments in construction technologies, and government support policies were identified as key and sensitive factors determining the success or failure of regeneration efforts.
Table 1. Analysis of key drivers influencing the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics in the peripheral areas of Mashhad
In the next step, the impacts of these drivers on various dimensions of regeneration, such as infrastructure quality, social participation, social security, and sustainable development were examined (Table 2). Specifically, government support policies, policies of Mashhad Municipality, and the level of social security in neighborhoods had the highest average impact on regeneration indicators. Moreover, the standard deviation analysis revealed greater disagreement among experts regarding certain drivers, such as climate change.
Subsequently, using exploratory scenario writing and morphological analysis, three main scenarios were developed: "Bright Future" – where all drivers are in optimal condition, and the regeneration process is fully successful. "Fragile Future" – reflecting a general weakness in all drivers, leading to complete failure of the regeneration process. "Cautious Path" – representing a moderate and unstable situation, where success depends on precise decision-making and timely interventions. Finally, a ranking technique was used to evaluate the scenarios in terms of desirability and likelihood. The results showed that the "Cautious Path", with an average score of 4.2, was considered the most probable and programmatically feasible scenario. Although its attractiveness (3.9) was slightly lower than the "Bright Future" (4.8), it ranked higher in terms of likelihood (4.5). In contrast, the "Fragile Future" had the lowest desirability (2.1) and a low likelihood (3.7), making it the least favorable scenario. These findings underscore the necessity of planned and foresight-based interventions in the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics.
Table 2. Evaluation of the impact of drivers on the assessed dimensions using the Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI)
Main Comparisons to Similar Studies
In comparison with similar studies, the present research aligns with previous findings in emphasizing the importance of government support policies, attracting private sector investment, and infrastructure quality in the success of urban regeneration [Mirkatoli et al., 2012; Sorooshan, 2017; Soltani et al., 2015]. Similar to the work of Soltani et al., this study also demonstrated that infrastructure conditions, such as transportation, energy, and public services play a fundamental role in the effective implementation of regeneration programs. Furthermore, the findings are consistent with the views of Rasoli et al. (2023) regarding the necessity of resident participation and social acceptance of regeneration plans. In line with Amini et al. (2018), this research highlighted the significance of household economic conditions and internal migration as key challenges affecting regeneration success. At the urban policy level, the study echoes Farhadian et al. (2014) by addressing the role of municipalities and transparency in decision-making in improving the quality of redevelopment. It also identifies the development of smart services and cultural revitalization, similar to the findings of Shafaati et al. (2022), as crucial factors for the future of regeneration efforts.
Suggestions
Recommendations include expanding data sources to include up-to-date information from both governmental and private sectors to improve the accuracy of driver analysis. It is also suggested to analyze drivers at local, urban, and national levels to better understand their distinct impacts on regeneration. Evaluating the long-term effects of drivers can clarify future trends. Moreover, developing practical policies based on the driver analysis and scenarios can support urban decision-making. Finally, using multi-criteria analysis methods is recommended to improve the precision of driver classification and forecasting.
Conclusion
The key drivers influencing the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics are classified into four main categories including critical, sensitive, crisis-prone, and low-impact. Land price changes and private sector investment are among the most important critical drivers with high uncertainty. Government and municipal policies, though important, are more predictable and fall into the sensitive category. In contrast, factors such as public transportation development and cultural policies are categorized as crisis-prone and low-impact, respectively. For the regeneration of deteriorated areas in the peripheral zones of Mashhad, three future scenarios were developed: Bright Future, Fragile Future, and Cautious Path. Among them, the Cautious Path scenario received the highest score and was considered the most likely to occur.
Acknowledgments: None reported by the authors.
Ethical Permission: None reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: None reported by the authors.
Authors’ Contributions: Vakili H (First author), Main Researcher/Introduction Writer/Discussion Writer/ Methodologist/Statistical Analyst (100%)
Funding: None reported by the authors.
Keywords: