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:: Volume 29, Issue 3 (2014) ::
geores 2014, 29(3): 61-72 Back to browse issues page
The Comparison of the Seasonal Rainfall Forecast precision by Box-Jenkins Models(case study: Selected stations of khozestan province)
Mohammad Reza Golabi *1, Ali Mohammad Akhondali Dr2, Feridon Radmanesh Dr2, Mahmod Kashefipor Dr2
1- Shahid Chamran university of Ahvaz , hamid_golabi65@yahoo.com
2- Shahid Chamran university of Ahvaz
Abstract:   (1011 Views)
Because of the increasing importance of supplying water for the country، water resource management is of paramount importance. Predicting precipitation، as one of the most important climatic parameters، is especially important in using water supplies. Time series can be used to predict precipitation. Time series analysis seems to be a suitable tool for such forecasting. The present work studies the comparison of the rainfall forecast precision by Box-Jenkins Time Series at three stations in Khuzestan province. The monthly rainfall data of three Meteorological stations in province for 48 years، i.e. (1961-2008) were used. The accuracy and precision of models are evaluated based on AIC statistics and the analysis of the graphs of Autocorrelation Function and Partial Autocorrelation Function. The obtained suitable seasonal rainfall model was (0،1،2)*(2،1،0)12 for Ahwaz، (0،1،2)*(0،1،1)12 for Abadan and (1،1،2)*(0،1،1)12 for Dezful. The results of this study show that these models accurately predict seasonal rainfall almost well.
Keywords: Rainfall Forecast, Time Series, Box, Jenkins, Khozestan, Iran
Full-Text [PDF 377 kb]   (294 Downloads)    
Article Type: Original Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2018/02/18 | Accepted: 2018/02/18 | Published: 2018/02/18
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Golabi M R, Akhondali A M, Radmanesh F, Kashefipor M. The Comparison of the Seasonal Rainfall Forecast precision by Box-Jenkins Models(case study: Selected stations of khozestan province). geores. 2014; 29 (3) :61-72
URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-344-en.html


Volume 29, Issue 3 (2014) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal
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