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:: Volume 33, Issue 3 (2018) ::
geores 2018, 33(3): 73-87 Back to browse issues page
Prediction of Land Cover Changes in Horizon of 2028 through a Hybrid Model of Markov Chain and Cellular Automata;Catchment Area around Bazangan Lake Case Study
Marzieh Alikhah Asl *1, Farzaneh Rezvani2
1- Department of Natural Resources And Enviromental Engineering,Payame Noor University, Tehran,Iran , Alikhahasl@pnu.ac.ir
2- Department of Natural Resources And Enviromental Engineering,Payame Noor University, Tehran,Iran
Abstract:   (1052 Views)
Introduction and Background Detection and prediction of changes are necessary for maintenance of an ecosystem particularly in rapidly-changing and often unplanned regions in developing countries.
Aims This study predicts the land use changes in catchment area around Bazangan Lake for the year of 2028 with the aim of investigating the evelopment in Bazangan Lake ecosystem based on the observeddegradation from 2002 to 2015.
Methodology The classification of studied area was carried out based on five categories of irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, rangeland, water zones and residential areas through TM, ETM and OLI sensors and utilization of independent component analysis (ICA) with an overall accuracy of 92.23% and
kappa coefficient of 0.89% for the years of 1999, 2002 and 2015. Afterwards, the land use changes were predicted by a hybrid model of Markov chain and cellular automata. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficient were determined in IDRISI software by the help of ERRMAT Module to verify mode.
Conclusion According to error matrix, the overall accuracy of performance was 71 percent and kappa coefficient 0.87 percent which proved Markov chain and cellular automaton (CA-Markov) for predicting the land use classes in upcoming 13 years. According to results, the continued current process of land
use changes in this region will change Bazangan Lake area to 12.81 hectares, the irrigated agriculture land area to 495.91 hectares, rainfed agriculture land area to 5764.42 hectares, rangelands to 4592.15 hectares, and residential land area to 94.74 hectares in the next 13 years.
Keywords: Markov Chain Model, Cellular Automata, Bazangan Lake, Remote Sensing
Full-Text [PDF 1504 kb]   (351 Downloads)    
Article Type: Original Research | Subject: GIS
Received: 2018/01/18 | Accepted: 2018/10/1 | Published: 2018/12/19
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Alikhah Asl M, Rezvani F. Prediction of Land Cover Changes in Horizon of 2028 through a Hybrid Model of Markov Chain and Cellular Automata;Catchment Area around Bazangan Lake Case Study. geores. 2018; 33 (3) :73-87
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Volume 33, Issue 3 (2018) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal
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