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دوره 41، شماره 1 - ( 1405 )
جلد 41 شماره 1 صفحات 67-59 |
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دریافت: 1404/8/22 | پذیرش: 1404/10/19 | انتشار: 1405/1/15
دریافت: 1404/8/22 | پذیرش: 1404/10/19 | انتشار: 1405/1/15
How to cite this article
Khudhair H, Azizi Z, Neshat A, Imani Harsini J. Spatial Patterns of Road Traffic Crashes in Baghdad with an Emphasis on Road Network Topology Metrics. GeoRes 2026; 41 (1) :59-67
URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-1864-fa.html
URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-1864-fa.html
Spatial Patterns of Road Traffic Crashes in Baghdad with an Emphasis on Road Network Topology Metrics. فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی. 1405; 41 (1) :59-67
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چکیده (1243 مشاهده)
Aims: Urban traffic safety was understood to be shaped by the spatial organization of street networks. For Baghdad, this study examined the relationships between network-topological metrics and crash risk, addressing the limited evidence base in the Middle East.
Methodology: Data from Baghdad City, Iraq, between 2024 and 2025 were assembled and quality-controlled. Crash rates were normalized by vehicle-kilometers traveled. A global ordinary least squares model with robust errors was estimated; When residual autocorrelation was detected, spatial lag/spatial error/spatial Durbin models were fitted. Geographically weighted regression with adaptive bandwidth was applied to capture spatial non-stationarity.
Findings: Significant clustering of crash rates was observed (Moran’s I=0.22; p<0.001). In ordinary least squares, positive effects were observed for annual average daily traffic, building area, openness, and meshedness, and a negative effect for betweenness. The selected spatial Durbin model confirmed spatial spillovers (ρ≈0.19) and large total effects of annual average daily traffic (~0.36) and building area (~0.26), while betweenness remained negative (~−0.12). Geographically weighted regression revealed broad spatial consistency: Betweenness was significantly negative across ~48% of cells, whereas annual average daily traffic and building area were significantly positive across ~68% and ~61% of cells, respectively. Crash rates peaked within 1-3km of hospitals (~310 per 100m vehicle-kilometers traveled) and declined beyond 5km (~170).
Conclusion: These patterns indicate that corridor-scale, network-oriented safety strategies are needed, with priority given to speed management, protected intersection design, and access control in high-exposure, highly meshed and more open sections, especially around hospitals.
Methodology: Data from Baghdad City, Iraq, between 2024 and 2025 were assembled and quality-controlled. Crash rates were normalized by vehicle-kilometers traveled. A global ordinary least squares model with robust errors was estimated; When residual autocorrelation was detected, spatial lag/spatial error/spatial Durbin models were fitted. Geographically weighted regression with adaptive bandwidth was applied to capture spatial non-stationarity.
Findings: Significant clustering of crash rates was observed (Moran’s I=0.22; p<0.001). In ordinary least squares, positive effects were observed for annual average daily traffic, building area, openness, and meshedness, and a negative effect for betweenness. The selected spatial Durbin model confirmed spatial spillovers (ρ≈0.19) and large total effects of annual average daily traffic (~0.36) and building area (~0.26), while betweenness remained negative (~−0.12). Geographically weighted regression revealed broad spatial consistency: Betweenness was significantly negative across ~48% of cells, whereas annual average daily traffic and building area were significantly positive across ~68% and ~61% of cells, respectively. Crash rates peaked within 1-3km of hospitals (~310 per 100m vehicle-kilometers traveled) and declined beyond 5km (~170).
Conclusion: These patterns indicate that corridor-scale, network-oriented safety strategies are needed, with priority given to speed management, protected intersection design, and access control in high-exposure, highly meshed and more open sections, especially around hospitals.
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