fa پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری/پوشش زمین در حوزه آبخیز گرگان‌رود با استفاده از سنجه‌ها و فرآیندهای تغییر سیمای سرزمین جغرافیای طبیعی Natural Geography پژوهشی اصیل Original Research <span style="font-size:14px;"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اهداف:</span></span></span></b> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پژوهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">حاضر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">با</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">هدف</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">بررسی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پیش&shy;بینی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییرات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سنجه&shy;ها</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">فرآیندهای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سیمای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سرزمین</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">حوزه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">آبخیز</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">گرگان‌رود</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">استان</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">گلستان</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">انجام</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">شد.</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"><span cambria="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d"></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">روش&shy;شناسی:</span></span></span></b> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">نقشه&shy;های</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاربری/پوشش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">زمین</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سال&shy;های</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">1990،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">2000،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">2010</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">2020</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">میلادی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تهیه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">شد.</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سپس</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پیش&shy;بینی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییرات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاربری/پوشش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">زمین</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">برای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">شرایط</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">آینده،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تحت</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">دو</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سناریوی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(1)</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تداوم</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">روند</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">فعلی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">برای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سال</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">2040</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(2)</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییرات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاربری/پوشش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">زمین</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">برای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سال2040</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">بر اساس توان</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اکولوژیکی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سرزمین،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">با</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">استفاده</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">از</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مدل&shy;ساز</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سرزمین</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">انجام</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پذیرفت.</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سنجه‌ها</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">فرآیندهای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سیمای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سرزمین</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سال&shy;های</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مورد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مطالعه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سناریوهای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">نظر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">با</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">استفاده</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">از</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">نرم</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">افزار</span></span></span> <span dir="LTR"><span cambria="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">Fragstats</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">استخراج</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییرات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">آن‌ها</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">طی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">دوره</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مورد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مطالعه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(1990</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تا</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">2020)</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تحلیل</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">شد.</span></span></span> <span dir="LTR"><span cambria="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d"></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">یافته&shy;ها:</span></span></span></b> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">طی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">دوره</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مورد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">بررسی،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">جنگل‌زدایی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(53/279</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع)،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اراضی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مرتعی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(98/542</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع)،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">توسعه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کشاورزی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(413</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع)</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">توسعه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مناطق</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مسکونی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(81/133</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع)</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">آبخیز</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">گرگان‌رود</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اتفاق</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">افتاده</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">بود.</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">بر اساس نقشه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پیش‌بینی‌شده کاربری</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اراضی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">برای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سال</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">2040</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تحت</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">دو</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سناریوی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مدیریتی،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مساحت</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاربرهای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">جنگل،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کشاورزی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مرتع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سناریوی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اول</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(بر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اساس</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">روند</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییرات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">فعلی)</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">با</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">37/58-،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">8/35،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">28/8</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">به</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">98/1364،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">09/2396</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">18/3481</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">خواهد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">رسید.</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">این</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">حالی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">است</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">که</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سناریوی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">دوم</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">(بر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اساس</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">توان</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">اکولوژیک)</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مساحت</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاربرهای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">جنگل،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کشاورزی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مرتع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">با</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تغییر</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">27/4،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">86/100-</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">58/96</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">به</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">54/1427،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">55/2258</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">49/3567</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">‌کیلومتر </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مربع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">خواهد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">رسید.</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"><span cambria="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d"></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span lang="FA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">نتیجه&shy;گیری:</span></span></span></b> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">افزایش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تعداد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">لکه‌ها</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">به&lrm;ترتیب</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کاربری‌های</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">انسان‌ساخت</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">طبیعی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">بیانگر روند</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تخریبی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سیمای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">سرزمین</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">طی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">دوره</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پژوهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">است.</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">فرآیند‌های</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تنزل</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">جنگل،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">تفکیک</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مرتع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">ایجاد</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">کشاورزی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مناطق</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">مسکونی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">طی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">دوره</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">30ساله</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پژوهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">آبخیز</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">گرگان‌رود</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">به</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">وقوع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">پیوسته</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span iransharp="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d">است.</span></span></span> <span dir="LTR"><span cambria="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:#0d0d0d"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span cambria="" style="font-family:">Aims:</span></b><span cambria="" style="font-family:"> The present study aimed to investigate and predict the changes in metrics and Landscape change processes in the Gorganrood watershed in Golestan province.</span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span cambria="" style="font-family:">Methodology: </span></b><span cambria="" lang="EN" style="font-family:">First, land cover maps were prepared in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Then predict land cover changes for future conditions, under two scenarios (1) continuation of the current trend of change for 2040 and (2) land cover changes for 2040 based on the ecological potential of the land, using land change modeling. </span><span cambria="" style="font-family:">Metrics </span><span cambria="" lang="EN" style="font-family:">and processes of land change in the studied years and scenarios were extracted using Fragstats software and their changes were analyzed during the study period (1990 to 2020). According to the results obtained during the study period, deforestation (279.53km²), reduction of rangeland lands (542.598km²), agricultural development (413 km²), and development of residential areas (133.81km²) have occurred in the Gorganrood watershed.</span><span lang="FA" dir="RTL" style="font-family:"IRANSharpSmall Light",sans-serif"></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span cambria="" style="font-family:">Findings:</span></b><b> </b><span cambria="" lang="EN" style="font-family:">According to the </span><span cambria="" style="font-family:">p</span><span cambria="" lang="EN" style="font-family:">redicted land cover for 2040 under two management scenarios, the area of ​​forest, agriculture, and rangeland in the first scenario (based on the current trend of change) with a change of -5</span><span cambria="" style="font-family:">8</span><span cambria="" lang="EN" style="font-family:">.37, 35.8, 8.28 km² to 1364.98, 2396.09 and 3481.18km²will be reached. Meanwhile, in the second scenario (based on ecological potential), the area of ​​forest, agriculture, and rangeland changed by 4.27, -100.86, and 96.58 km² to 1427.54, 2258.55 and 3567.49km² will receive. </span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span cambria="" style="font-family:">Conclusion:</span></b><b> </b><span cambria="" lang="EN" style="font-family:">Increasing and decreasing the number of patches in human and natural uses, respectively, indicate the destructive trend of the landscape during the research period. Forest degradation, rangeland segregation and creation processes in agriculture and residential areas have occurred during the 30-year research period in the Gorganrood watershed</span><span cambria="" style="font-family:">.</span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری/پوشش زمین, مدل LCM, سنجه‌های سیمای سرزمین, توان اکولوژیک, حوزه آبخیز گرگان‌رود Prediction of Land Cover Changes,LCM Model,Landscape Metrics,Ecological Potential,Gorganrood Watershed, 381 389 http://georesearch.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1373-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 M. Yaghoobi Bayekolaee معصومه یعقوبی بایعکلایی 100319475328460015386 100319475328460015386 No Department of Water Resources Management Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran گروه مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران-آب-محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران A. Vafaeenejad علیرضا وفایی نژاد 100319475328460015387 100319475328460015387 Yes Department of Geotechnical and Transportation Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran گروه مهندسی ژئوتکنیک و حمل و نقل، دانشکده مهندسی عمران-آب-محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران H. Moradi Darabkalayi حمیدرضا مرادی دارابکلایی 100319475328460015388 100319475328460015388 No Department of Watershed Management and Engineering, College of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران H. Hashemi حسین هاشمی 100319475328460015389 100319475328460015389 No Department of Water Resources Engineering and Center for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Lund, Sweden مرکز مطالعات خاورمیانه و مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه لوند، لوند، سوئد