Bilingual
En/Fa
Geographical Research is Published in both Persian and English Full-text.
Volume 38, Issue 1 (2023)
GeoRes 2023, 38(1): 65-72 |
Back to browse issues page
Article Type:
Subject:
History
Received: 2022/12/26 | Accepted: 2023/03/12 | Published: 2023/04/5
Received: 2022/12/26 | Accepted: 2023/03/12 | Published: 2023/04/5
How to cite this article
Ghasempour A, Arbabi Sabzevari A, Ebadati N, Adibi Sadinezhad F, Rostampisheh M. The Drivers of the Oil Economy Affecting the Spatial Developments of Mahshahr Port, Iran. GeoRes 2023; 38 (1) :65-72
URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-1438-en.html
URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-1438-en.html
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Rights and permissions
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Authors
A. Ghasempour1 
, A. Arbabi Sabzevari *1 , N. Ebadati2 , F. Adibi Sadinezhad1 , M. Rostampisheh3
, A. Arbabi Sabzevari *1 , N. Ebadati2 , F. Adibi Sadinezhad1 , M. Rostampisheh3
1- Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
2- Department of Geology, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
3- Department of Architecture, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
2- Department of Geology, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
3- Department of Architecture, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
Full-Text (HTML) (164 Views)
Introduction
The emergence of cities and the conditions that led to their formation represent one of the most significant periods in human history [Bertolini et al., 2006]. According to Paul Brook, the rise of cities and urbanization is as important as the Industrial Revolution itself; had cities not been established in earlier eras, the Industrial Revolution would most likely not have occurred [Mombeni & Kalantari, 2020]. In this sense, Brook regards the formation of cities as a precursor to industrialization. In the modern era, industry, particularly the oil industry, has played a vital role in population growth and in shaping industrial and modern urban spaces [Tan et al., 2016]. Over the past century, oil and its revenues have exerted a significant and undeniable influence on all economic, political, and social transformations [Pilvar et al., 2013].
In other words, the introduction of industry, especially the oil industry has acted as a powerful catalyst for change in the ecological structure of oil-bearing regions, in economic and social relations, and in people’s livelihoods and lifestyles [Hejazi et al., 2015]. With the advent of the oil industry in oil-rich areas, local inhabitants, alongside their awareness of economic, social, and cultural distinctions, have also experienced environmental consequences, livelihood transformations, lifestyle changes, and shifts in values and norms [Farzi & Azkia, 2016]. These cities, born out of the discovery and exploitation of a finite resource, have flourished economically and socially, becoming leaders of modernization and progress during their lifetimes and ranking among the most prosperous and advanced cities of their time [Ghadami et al., 2011]. Consequently, the spatial structure of oil cities reflects and embodies the characteristics of the oil-based economy. This industry has therefore brought about distinct perspectives and fundamental transformations in their spatial–physical structure and organization [Besharatifar et al., 2017].
Since urban space is considered the outcome of the planning process, its nature and organization have long been a challenging topic and a central focus of geographical and urban sciences as well as various schools of thought. Throughout history, the concept of space has been debated within both classical and contemporary paradigms. Philosophically, three major perspectives regarding space have been proposed: The absolute or substantive view, the relational or relative view, and the epistemological stance. Over time, as the limitations of purely objective approaches to explaining space became evident, the importance of socio-human factors in shaping spatial and physical organization became undeniable, and space increasingly acquired social and sociological dimensions [Imani Shamlou et al., 2018].
The essence of “geographical space” is inseparable from the concept of “space” itself, which is rooted in spatial modes of thought. Thus, a proper understanding of “geographical space” first requires a critical inquiry into the very nature of “space.” Various schools of spatial thought, by broadening the philosophical dimensions of the concept, have allowed space, and geographical space, to be viewed from multiple perspectives. Although simplifying the notion of space may make it easier to comprehend, such a reduction produces an incomplete understanding. Only through a critical and reflective approach can one attain a more comprehensive and less deficient understanding of spatial concepts [Sadeghi et al., 2015].
Urban spaces continuously evolve and expand over time, and these transformations also occur in the nature of spatial order and spatial arrangement. In other words, changes in urban space depend on the diverse and interrelated forces and factors, both internal and external, that exist within the city [Khazli Viznani et al., 2021]. These factors include market forces, activities, urban infrastructure, and various services, which are all intricately and dynamically interlinked [Hosseini et al., 2019]. Urban spaces are shaped and transformed under the influence of natural and climatic conditions, economic and financial forces, political and administrative powers, and socio-cultural dynamics [Shieh et al., 2017]. The social and cultural forces consist of the institutionalized norms and rules of society, which, through shared values, possess the power to regulate social behavior [Njad Ebrahimi et al., 2018].
The general urban processes that influence changes in spatial–physical structures and urban form over time can be classified into three groups: slow processes (occurring over decades or centuries), medium-term processes (less than a decade), and rapid processes (daily or faster). Technical–economic paradigm shifts—such as structural changes in the global economy, demographic transitions, and the introduction of new technologies, occur as slow processes; urban development cycles, business cycles, and industrial relocations occur at medium-term scales; while communication flows and travel patterns unfold as rapid processes [Khazli Viznani et al., 2021].
Today, neoliberal strategies have become deeply entrenched in cities, which are increasingly intertwined with capitalist mechanisms [Imani Shamlou et al., 2016]. As a result, urban spaces are increasingly reproduced in alignment with political and economic forces, serving as arenas that facilitate capitalist relations. Thus, the production of space functions as a mechanism for reinforcing the processes of accumulation, circulation, and profit within capitalist systems [Heidari et al., 2021]. Oil-based economic planning constitutes one of the primary factors influencing the mechanisms and relationships that define urban economic and physical structures. Such spatial management may lead to speculative activities, inefficient resource allocation, neglect of socio-cultural dimensions, and an overly physical and functionalist perspective toward urban space and morphology [Jafari Pabandi et al., 2022].
In this context, oil cities have emerged through the discovery and exploitation of oil resources, initiating their growth and development processes, growths that are oil-dependent and based on a one-dimensional economy. Through reliance on this single resource, they have transformed into modern and prosperous urban centers [Ghadami et al., 2011]. The main characteristics of such cities include a high concentration of industrial and mining activities related to exploration, extraction, refining, and export of subsurface resources; the risk of depletion of non-renewable resources; severe environmental pollution; high production of industrial and domestic waste; unique economic opportunities and extensive employment creation; high rates of in-migration; extensive land-use changes; rapid urban expansion; and social issues resulting from labor migration, cultural dualities, and the spread of various social problems. These characteristics make extractive cities distinctly different from other urban types [Mokhtari Malekabadi et al., 2021].
Capitalism, on the one hand, leads to the production of unequal spaces, and on the other, through the monopoly of advanced technologies, reduces commodity prices, enabling market monopolization and greater profits, which in turn result in the destruction of traditional and local spaces, those often characterized by simpler technologies [Aghaei et al., 2020]. Moreover, the production of capitalist space is not purely an economic phenomenon; it is also inherently gendered and racialized, thereby perpetuating gender and racial inequalities and fragmenting societies into various groups, classes, and strata [Heidari et al., 2021].
Bandar Mahshahr, as one of the cities in Khuzestan Province, has been deeply affected by the spatial transformations driven by oil fields. The rapid spatial–physical expansion of Bandar Mahshahr, influenced by the establishment of a large number of industrial and petrochemical complexes, has led to intense in-migration and unprecedented construction activity. Oil-based urban planning and management have profoundly influenced the city’s economic and physical structures. This mode of spatial management has fostered speculative economic behavior, inefficient resource allocation, disregard for socio-cultural aspects, and a purely physical–functionalist approach to urban space. Consequently, the city’s spatial structure has become disordered and spontaneous in certain areas, juxtaposed with planned corporate neighborhoods, producing dualities within the city’s overall spatial fabric. Such a condition is expected to lead to numerous and severe problems in the near future. Therefore, a comprehensive study and deep understanding of the factors influencing future spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr are essential for proactive and foresighted urban planning. In line with this objective and necessity, the present study aims to identify and interpret the key oil-based economic drivers shaping spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr.
Methodology
This descriptive-analytical study was conducted in 2021 in Bandar Mahshahr, based on new explanatory foresight (futures studies) methods. Bandar Mahshahr, located in Khuzestan Province at 49°13′ E longitude and 30°33′ N latitude, is bordered to the north by Ahvaz, to the west by Abadan and Khorramshahr, to the east by Hendijan and Behbahan, and to the south by the Persian Gulf. The city lies 18 km from Bandar Imam Khomeini, 95 km from Abadan, and 110 km from Ahvaz [Raees Ghanavati et al., 2022]. The population of Bandar Mahshahr increased from 15,694 in 1956 to 162,797 in 2016 [Iran Statistics Center, 2015]. As an industrial city, Bandar Mahshahr, like other industrial and labor-intensive cities, has historically been composed of diverse social groups, attracting people from nearby and distant cities for employment, many of whom have settled permanently.
In the first phase, 40 drivers were extracted across five dimensions using a document-based review.
These drivers were evaluated using expert opinions based on the Delphi method [Sarvari, 2019].
Sampling
Judgmental or purposive sampling was employed. Selection criteria included theoretical expertise, practical experience, willingness and ability to participate, and accessibility. The number of participants was determined to ensure the comprehensiveness of perspectives. Based on these criteria, 20 experts from academic and research centers were selected. After selection, the list of drivers influencing spatial transformations was provided to participants for scoring using a 7-point scale.
To validate the questionnaire, content validity was assessed by having participants classify each item as “essential,” “useful but not essential,” or “unnecessary.” Based on the content validity ratio and a significance level of p < 0.05, the minimum acceptable value for each item was determined. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was used to assess reliability, ensuring internal consistency; the alpha values for all components exceeded 0.7.
Based on expert scores, drivers were analyzed using the Structural Analysis of Cross-Impact Matrices (MICMAC) in software, and an influence–dependence map was created. The classification of drivers in this map is as follows:
Findings
The overall pattern of oil-economy drivers influencing spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr indicates an unstable system. Except for a few drivers with high influence, most drivers exhibit relatively similar status and are positioned near the system’s diagonal axis.
Based on MICMAC analysis, the drivers can be classified into several groups. Influential drivers, such as government assistance for highway construction, inflation and rising living costs, population growth due to in-migration, environmental pollution, decentralized land ownership, and inefficiency of plans and policies, are critical to the system and largely uncontrollable. Bidirectional drivers, including the increasing income gap between city and periphery, low land and housing prices in the periphery, rural-to-urban migration, social segregation, and inefficient urban land use, act both as influential and dependent factors, meaning changes in these drivers can significantly affect system stability. Dependent drivers, such as decreased urban population density, reduced sense of place attachment, threats to habitats, and decreased landscape attractiveness, are highly sensitive to the influential and bidirectional drivers and represent the system’s outputs. Autonomous drivers, including weak occupational skills, household size reduction, environmental and health issues, and lack of affordable housing, are minimally influenced by and have limited influence on the system. Finally, target and risk drivers represent aspects that can either be manipulated to achieve desired system evolution or pose potential challenges to urban development.
Analysis of direct influence identified ten key oil-economy drivers with high impact and low dependence as most critical for shaping the spatial transformations of Bandar Mahshahr. These include population growth due to in-migration, the presence of incompatible urban land uses, expansion of open spaces and urban fragmentation, inefficiency of plans and policies, dominance of private transportation, overall population growth, inefficient use of urban land, rural-to-urban migration, political fragmentation and lack of integration in decision-making, and separation of land uses. These drivers serve as the primary forces guiding the city’s spatial dynamics and are central to understanding future urban transformations.
Discussion
The aim of this study was to identify and cluster the driving factors of the oil-based economy that influence spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr. Previous research indicates that due to its proximity to the Abadan, Omidiyeh, and Gachsaran oil fields, Bandar Mahshahr has acted as a development paradox, experiencing deep and extensive spatial transformations. Overall, since these spatial changes in economic, social, cultural, and physical dimensions, and the formation of new urban functions., have largely occurred spontaneously without planned interventions, they have produced undesirable effects both within the city and in surrounding areas. Consequently, controlling and guiding these transformations, addressing urban sprawl, and preventing the formation of peripheral settlements are essential for achieving integrated and sustainable urban and rural development through proper planning and implementation strategies.
In summary, extractive cities today serve as the primary spatial units of socio-economic activity and are central to the political economy of space. They create continuous and fragmented territories that become development hubs around which regional growth revolves. The spatial structure and organization of cities, including Bandar Mahshahr, are constantly evolving, with changes closely linked to oil revenues. Rising oil revenues, coupled with increased liquidity, generate inflation in land and housing markets due to limited supply, which in turn exacerbates social and class inequalities. Space reflects these social divisions, leading to spatial gaps and eventually socio-economic segregation between rich and poor. These observations highlight that the spatial structure of Bandar Mahshahr should be studied through frameworks such as the political economy of space, as single-dimensional approaches are insufficient for fully explaining its dynamics.
Supporting these findings, previous studies have shown that oil revenues directly influence spatial transformations and construction activities in major Iranian cities such as Tehran and Tabriz. Concentration and polarization of urban development along growth axes not only accelerate urban expansion but also serve speculative objectives, creating uneven distribution of services and contributing to spatial disparities.
The application of identified drivers in this study provides a foundation and guidance for formulating strategic development plans for Bandar Mahshahr. The overall dispersion pattern of the development drivers indicates an unstable system, in which the drivers exhibit complex and intermediate levels of influence and dependence. Cluster analysis further shows a concentration of drivers within the influential and bidirectional categories. Among the 40 drivers examined, ten key oil-economy drivers were identified as most critical for spatial transformations: population growth due to in-migration, presence of incompatible urban land uses (railways and oil warehouses), expansion of open spaces and urban fragmentation, inefficiency of plans and construction policies, dominance of private transportation, overall population growth, inefficient use of urban land, rural-to-urban migration, political fragmentation and lack of integration in decision-making systems, and separation of land uses. These drivers exhibit high systemic influence and low dependence, meaning that the city’s spatial dynamics are highly dependent on their performance.
Population growth due to in-migration is a particularly influential factor, driven by the concentration of employment opportunities in extractive cities. Increased population affects other factors such as urban density, dominance of private transportation (due to inadequate public transport), and the formation of incompatible land uses. Given the functional integration of urban spatial systems, changes in one structural component systematically affect other components, driving transformations throughout the system. Previous research has emphasized the critical role of population migration in destabilizing spatial patterns in urban areas.
The key drivers identified in this study are distributed across all urban dimensions, but six strategic drivers are particularly physical in nature: presence of incompatible urban land uses (railways and oil warehouses), expansion of open spaces and urban fragmentation, dominance of private transportation, inefficient use of urban land, separation of land uses, and linear and dispersed commercial development. These physical drivers play a central role in shaping the spatial configuration of Bandar Mahshahr and represent critical points of intervention for guiding future urban development.
Conclusion
The dispersion of oil-economy drivers influencing spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr predicts an unstable system. Since these spatial changes across economic, social, cultural, and physical dimensions, as well as the emergence of new urban functions, have occurred spontaneously without any planned interventions, they are likely to produce undesirable effects on the city and its surrounding areas.
Acknowledgments: We hereby express our gratitude to all those who assisted us in conducting this research.
Ethical Permission: None reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: None reported by the authors.
Authors’ Contributions: Ghasempour A (first author), Main Researcher (40%); Arbabi Sabzevari A (second author), Methodologist (15%); Ebadati N (third author), Introduction Writer (15%); Adibi Sadinezhad F (fourth author), Statistical Analyst (15%); Rostampisheh M (fifth author), Discussion Writer (15%)
Funding: This article is derived from the first author’s doctoral dissertation, conducted under the supervision of the second and third authors and with consultation from the fourth and fifth authors, in the Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr Branch. The study did not receive any financial support.
The emergence of cities and the conditions that led to their formation represent one of the most significant periods in human history [Bertolini et al., 2006]. According to Paul Brook, the rise of cities and urbanization is as important as the Industrial Revolution itself; had cities not been established in earlier eras, the Industrial Revolution would most likely not have occurred [Mombeni & Kalantari, 2020]. In this sense, Brook regards the formation of cities as a precursor to industrialization. In the modern era, industry, particularly the oil industry, has played a vital role in population growth and in shaping industrial and modern urban spaces [Tan et al., 2016]. Over the past century, oil and its revenues have exerted a significant and undeniable influence on all economic, political, and social transformations [Pilvar et al., 2013].
In other words, the introduction of industry, especially the oil industry has acted as a powerful catalyst for change in the ecological structure of oil-bearing regions, in economic and social relations, and in people’s livelihoods and lifestyles [Hejazi et al., 2015]. With the advent of the oil industry in oil-rich areas, local inhabitants, alongside their awareness of economic, social, and cultural distinctions, have also experienced environmental consequences, livelihood transformations, lifestyle changes, and shifts in values and norms [Farzi & Azkia, 2016]. These cities, born out of the discovery and exploitation of a finite resource, have flourished economically and socially, becoming leaders of modernization and progress during their lifetimes and ranking among the most prosperous and advanced cities of their time [Ghadami et al., 2011]. Consequently, the spatial structure of oil cities reflects and embodies the characteristics of the oil-based economy. This industry has therefore brought about distinct perspectives and fundamental transformations in their spatial–physical structure and organization [Besharatifar et al., 2017].
Since urban space is considered the outcome of the planning process, its nature and organization have long been a challenging topic and a central focus of geographical and urban sciences as well as various schools of thought. Throughout history, the concept of space has been debated within both classical and contemporary paradigms. Philosophically, three major perspectives regarding space have been proposed: The absolute or substantive view, the relational or relative view, and the epistemological stance. Over time, as the limitations of purely objective approaches to explaining space became evident, the importance of socio-human factors in shaping spatial and physical organization became undeniable, and space increasingly acquired social and sociological dimensions [Imani Shamlou et al., 2018].
The essence of “geographical space” is inseparable from the concept of “space” itself, which is rooted in spatial modes of thought. Thus, a proper understanding of “geographical space” first requires a critical inquiry into the very nature of “space.” Various schools of spatial thought, by broadening the philosophical dimensions of the concept, have allowed space, and geographical space, to be viewed from multiple perspectives. Although simplifying the notion of space may make it easier to comprehend, such a reduction produces an incomplete understanding. Only through a critical and reflective approach can one attain a more comprehensive and less deficient understanding of spatial concepts [Sadeghi et al., 2015].
Urban spaces continuously evolve and expand over time, and these transformations also occur in the nature of spatial order and spatial arrangement. In other words, changes in urban space depend on the diverse and interrelated forces and factors, both internal and external, that exist within the city [Khazli Viznani et al., 2021]. These factors include market forces, activities, urban infrastructure, and various services, which are all intricately and dynamically interlinked [Hosseini et al., 2019]. Urban spaces are shaped and transformed under the influence of natural and climatic conditions, economic and financial forces, political and administrative powers, and socio-cultural dynamics [Shieh et al., 2017]. The social and cultural forces consist of the institutionalized norms and rules of society, which, through shared values, possess the power to regulate social behavior [Njad Ebrahimi et al., 2018].
The general urban processes that influence changes in spatial–physical structures and urban form over time can be classified into three groups: slow processes (occurring over decades or centuries), medium-term processes (less than a decade), and rapid processes (daily or faster). Technical–economic paradigm shifts—such as structural changes in the global economy, demographic transitions, and the introduction of new technologies, occur as slow processes; urban development cycles, business cycles, and industrial relocations occur at medium-term scales; while communication flows and travel patterns unfold as rapid processes [Khazli Viznani et al., 2021].
Today, neoliberal strategies have become deeply entrenched in cities, which are increasingly intertwined with capitalist mechanisms [Imani Shamlou et al., 2016]. As a result, urban spaces are increasingly reproduced in alignment with political and economic forces, serving as arenas that facilitate capitalist relations. Thus, the production of space functions as a mechanism for reinforcing the processes of accumulation, circulation, and profit within capitalist systems [Heidari et al., 2021]. Oil-based economic planning constitutes one of the primary factors influencing the mechanisms and relationships that define urban economic and physical structures. Such spatial management may lead to speculative activities, inefficient resource allocation, neglect of socio-cultural dimensions, and an overly physical and functionalist perspective toward urban space and morphology [Jafari Pabandi et al., 2022].
In this context, oil cities have emerged through the discovery and exploitation of oil resources, initiating their growth and development processes, growths that are oil-dependent and based on a one-dimensional economy. Through reliance on this single resource, they have transformed into modern and prosperous urban centers [Ghadami et al., 2011]. The main characteristics of such cities include a high concentration of industrial and mining activities related to exploration, extraction, refining, and export of subsurface resources; the risk of depletion of non-renewable resources; severe environmental pollution; high production of industrial and domestic waste; unique economic opportunities and extensive employment creation; high rates of in-migration; extensive land-use changes; rapid urban expansion; and social issues resulting from labor migration, cultural dualities, and the spread of various social problems. These characteristics make extractive cities distinctly different from other urban types [Mokhtari Malekabadi et al., 2021].
Capitalism, on the one hand, leads to the production of unequal spaces, and on the other, through the monopoly of advanced technologies, reduces commodity prices, enabling market monopolization and greater profits, which in turn result in the destruction of traditional and local spaces, those often characterized by simpler technologies [Aghaei et al., 2020]. Moreover, the production of capitalist space is not purely an economic phenomenon; it is also inherently gendered and racialized, thereby perpetuating gender and racial inequalities and fragmenting societies into various groups, classes, and strata [Heidari et al., 2021].
Bandar Mahshahr, as one of the cities in Khuzestan Province, has been deeply affected by the spatial transformations driven by oil fields. The rapid spatial–physical expansion of Bandar Mahshahr, influenced by the establishment of a large number of industrial and petrochemical complexes, has led to intense in-migration and unprecedented construction activity. Oil-based urban planning and management have profoundly influenced the city’s economic and physical structures. This mode of spatial management has fostered speculative economic behavior, inefficient resource allocation, disregard for socio-cultural aspects, and a purely physical–functionalist approach to urban space. Consequently, the city’s spatial structure has become disordered and spontaneous in certain areas, juxtaposed with planned corporate neighborhoods, producing dualities within the city’s overall spatial fabric. Such a condition is expected to lead to numerous and severe problems in the near future. Therefore, a comprehensive study and deep understanding of the factors influencing future spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr are essential for proactive and foresighted urban planning. In line with this objective and necessity, the present study aims to identify and interpret the key oil-based economic drivers shaping spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr.
Methodology
This descriptive-analytical study was conducted in 2021 in Bandar Mahshahr, based on new explanatory foresight (futures studies) methods. Bandar Mahshahr, located in Khuzestan Province at 49°13′ E longitude and 30°33′ N latitude, is bordered to the north by Ahvaz, to the west by Abadan and Khorramshahr, to the east by Hendijan and Behbahan, and to the south by the Persian Gulf. The city lies 18 km from Bandar Imam Khomeini, 95 km from Abadan, and 110 km from Ahvaz [Raees Ghanavati et al., 2022]. The population of Bandar Mahshahr increased from 15,694 in 1956 to 162,797 in 2016 [Iran Statistics Center, 2015]. As an industrial city, Bandar Mahshahr, like other industrial and labor-intensive cities, has historically been composed of diverse social groups, attracting people from nearby and distant cities for employment, many of whom have settled permanently.
In the first phase, 40 drivers were extracted across five dimensions using a document-based review.
These drivers were evaluated using expert opinions based on the Delphi method [Sarvari, 2019].
Sampling
Judgmental or purposive sampling was employed. Selection criteria included theoretical expertise, practical experience, willingness and ability to participate, and accessibility. The number of participants was determined to ensure the comprehensiveness of perspectives. Based on these criteria, 20 experts from academic and research centers were selected. After selection, the list of drivers influencing spatial transformations was provided to participants for scoring using a 7-point scale.
To validate the questionnaire, content validity was assessed by having participants classify each item as “essential,” “useful but not essential,” or “unnecessary.” Based on the content validity ratio and a significance level of p < 0.05, the minimum acceptable value for each item was determined. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was used to assess reliability, ensuring internal consistency; the alpha values for all components exceeded 0.7.
Based on expert scores, drivers were analyzed using the Structural Analysis of Cross-Impact Matrices (MICMAC) in software, and an influence–dependence map was created. The classification of drivers in this map is as follows:
- Influential Drivers: These are the most critical or strategically important drivers of spatial transformations. They have the greatest influence and the lowest dependence, making them the system’s key drivers. These input drivers are largely uncontrollable, as they exist outside the system and act as stable drivers.
- Bidirectional Drivers: These drivers are both influential and dependent. Any changes in them can affect the stability of the system. They are further classified into risk drivers (with high potential to become key system actors) and target drivers (more dependent than influential, allowing system evolution toward desired outcomes through their manipulation).
- Dependent Drivers: With low influence and high dependence, these drivers are highly sensitive to changes in influential and bidirectional drivers. They are considered system outputs.
- Autonomous Drivers: These drivers are largely unaffected by other system drivers and exert little or no influence on them. They have minimal connection to the system, neither halting main drivers nor contributing to the evolution of any system driver.
Findings
The overall pattern of oil-economy drivers influencing spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr indicates an unstable system. Except for a few drivers with high influence, most drivers exhibit relatively similar status and are positioned near the system’s diagonal axis.
Based on MICMAC analysis, the drivers can be classified into several groups. Influential drivers, such as government assistance for highway construction, inflation and rising living costs, population growth due to in-migration, environmental pollution, decentralized land ownership, and inefficiency of plans and policies, are critical to the system and largely uncontrollable. Bidirectional drivers, including the increasing income gap between city and periphery, low land and housing prices in the periphery, rural-to-urban migration, social segregation, and inefficient urban land use, act both as influential and dependent factors, meaning changes in these drivers can significantly affect system stability. Dependent drivers, such as decreased urban population density, reduced sense of place attachment, threats to habitats, and decreased landscape attractiveness, are highly sensitive to the influential and bidirectional drivers and represent the system’s outputs. Autonomous drivers, including weak occupational skills, household size reduction, environmental and health issues, and lack of affordable housing, are minimally influenced by and have limited influence on the system. Finally, target and risk drivers represent aspects that can either be manipulated to achieve desired system evolution or pose potential challenges to urban development.
Analysis of direct influence identified ten key oil-economy drivers with high impact and low dependence as most critical for shaping the spatial transformations of Bandar Mahshahr. These include population growth due to in-migration, the presence of incompatible urban land uses, expansion of open spaces and urban fragmentation, inefficiency of plans and policies, dominance of private transportation, overall population growth, inefficient use of urban land, rural-to-urban migration, political fragmentation and lack of integration in decision-making, and separation of land uses. These drivers serve as the primary forces guiding the city’s spatial dynamics and are central to understanding future urban transformations.
Discussion
The aim of this study was to identify and cluster the driving factors of the oil-based economy that influence spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr. Previous research indicates that due to its proximity to the Abadan, Omidiyeh, and Gachsaran oil fields, Bandar Mahshahr has acted as a development paradox, experiencing deep and extensive spatial transformations. Overall, since these spatial changes in economic, social, cultural, and physical dimensions, and the formation of new urban functions., have largely occurred spontaneously without planned interventions, they have produced undesirable effects both within the city and in surrounding areas. Consequently, controlling and guiding these transformations, addressing urban sprawl, and preventing the formation of peripheral settlements are essential for achieving integrated and sustainable urban and rural development through proper planning and implementation strategies.
In summary, extractive cities today serve as the primary spatial units of socio-economic activity and are central to the political economy of space. They create continuous and fragmented territories that become development hubs around which regional growth revolves. The spatial structure and organization of cities, including Bandar Mahshahr, are constantly evolving, with changes closely linked to oil revenues. Rising oil revenues, coupled with increased liquidity, generate inflation in land and housing markets due to limited supply, which in turn exacerbates social and class inequalities. Space reflects these social divisions, leading to spatial gaps and eventually socio-economic segregation between rich and poor. These observations highlight that the spatial structure of Bandar Mahshahr should be studied through frameworks such as the political economy of space, as single-dimensional approaches are insufficient for fully explaining its dynamics.
Supporting these findings, previous studies have shown that oil revenues directly influence spatial transformations and construction activities in major Iranian cities such as Tehran and Tabriz. Concentration and polarization of urban development along growth axes not only accelerate urban expansion but also serve speculative objectives, creating uneven distribution of services and contributing to spatial disparities.
The application of identified drivers in this study provides a foundation and guidance for formulating strategic development plans for Bandar Mahshahr. The overall dispersion pattern of the development drivers indicates an unstable system, in which the drivers exhibit complex and intermediate levels of influence and dependence. Cluster analysis further shows a concentration of drivers within the influential and bidirectional categories. Among the 40 drivers examined, ten key oil-economy drivers were identified as most critical for spatial transformations: population growth due to in-migration, presence of incompatible urban land uses (railways and oil warehouses), expansion of open spaces and urban fragmentation, inefficiency of plans and construction policies, dominance of private transportation, overall population growth, inefficient use of urban land, rural-to-urban migration, political fragmentation and lack of integration in decision-making systems, and separation of land uses. These drivers exhibit high systemic influence and low dependence, meaning that the city’s spatial dynamics are highly dependent on their performance.
Population growth due to in-migration is a particularly influential factor, driven by the concentration of employment opportunities in extractive cities. Increased population affects other factors such as urban density, dominance of private transportation (due to inadequate public transport), and the formation of incompatible land uses. Given the functional integration of urban spatial systems, changes in one structural component systematically affect other components, driving transformations throughout the system. Previous research has emphasized the critical role of population migration in destabilizing spatial patterns in urban areas.
The key drivers identified in this study are distributed across all urban dimensions, but six strategic drivers are particularly physical in nature: presence of incompatible urban land uses (railways and oil warehouses), expansion of open spaces and urban fragmentation, dominance of private transportation, inefficient use of urban land, separation of land uses, and linear and dispersed commercial development. These physical drivers play a central role in shaping the spatial configuration of Bandar Mahshahr and represent critical points of intervention for guiding future urban development.
Conclusion
The dispersion of oil-economy drivers influencing spatial transformations in Bandar Mahshahr predicts an unstable system. Since these spatial changes across economic, social, cultural, and physical dimensions, as well as the emergence of new urban functions, have occurred spontaneously without any planned interventions, they are likely to produce undesirable effects on the city and its surrounding areas.
Acknowledgments: We hereby express our gratitude to all those who assisted us in conducting this research.
Ethical Permission: None reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: None reported by the authors.
Authors’ Contributions: Ghasempour A (first author), Main Researcher (40%); Arbabi Sabzevari A (second author), Methodologist (15%); Ebadati N (third author), Introduction Writer (15%); Adibi Sadinezhad F (fourth author), Statistical Analyst (15%); Rostampisheh M (fifth author), Discussion Writer (15%)
Funding: This article is derived from the first author’s doctoral dissertation, conducted under the supervision of the second and third authors and with consultation from the fourth and fifth authors, in the Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr Branch. The study did not receive any financial support.
References
1. Aghaei P, Tavakolinia J, Kalantari M, Fanni Z (2020). Production and reproduction of space in the second cycle of capital accumulation: A critique of everyday life in lived space. Bagh-e Nazar. 16(80):29-40. [Persian] [Link]
2. Bertolini M, Braglia M, Carmignani G (2006). Application of the AHP methodology in making a proposal for a public work contract. International Journal of Project Management. 24(5):422-430. [Link] [DOI:10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.01.005]
3. Besharatifar S, Ghaderi E, Pishgahifard Z (2017). The study of the effects of the oil industry on the spatial structure of the city (Case study: Abadan). Human Geography Research Quarterly. 49(3):657-673. [Persian] [Link]
4. Farzi S, Azkia M (2016). Sociological analysis of oil industry consequences on the social, economic and cultural development from oil-rich regions inhabitants' perspectives: A case study of the Darkhovein oil field indigenous. Journal of Community Development (Rural And Urban Communities). 8(2):221-244. [Persian] [Link]
5. Ghadami M, Meshkini A, Pajoohan M, Pakdoost N (2011). Strategy formulation for sustainable development of oil based cities using SWOT method, iea analysis and QSPM matrix. Journal of Spatial Planning (Modares Human Sciences). 15(3):39-58. [Persian] [Link]
6. Heidari MT, Rashidi Ebrahim Hesari A, Ranjbarnia B, Rahmani M (2021). Explaining the drivers of oil economy and its effects on the quality of livablity of local communities in extracted cities (Case study: Behbahan). Journal of Geographical Urban Planning Research. 8(4):737-760. [Persian] [Link]
7. Hejazi N, Fazel R, Vahida F (2015). Impacts of economic development of assaluyeh on quality of life (By industrial development aprroach). Journal: The Socio- Cultural Strategy. 4(1):87-113. [Persian] [Link]
8. Hosseini A, Poorahmad A, Ziari K (2019). Analysis of urban spatial structure with emphasis on the demographic dimension of the morphological approach of multicore city (Case study: Tehran). Journal of Geographical Planning Of Space. 8(30):19-38. [Persian] [Link]
9. Imani Shamlou J, Pourjafar MR, Rafieian M (2018). role of oil-based economic components in spatial transformations Of Tehran and Tabriz metropolises. Political Organizing Of Space. 1(1):1-9. [Persian] [Link]
10. Imani Shamlou J, Rafieian M, Dadashpour H (2016). Urban speculation and segregation (Analysis of spatial evolution of tehran metropolis in the context of oil-based economy). Journal of Geopolitics. 12(41):104-135. [Persian] [Link]
11. Iran Statistics Center [Internet]. The results of the general population and housing census of Bandar Mahshahr City (2015). Tehran: Publications of the Directorate of Public Relations and International Cooperation [Cited 2021, 14 July]. Available from: https://amar.org.ir/. [Persian] [Link]
12. Jafari Pabandi MH, Darskhan R, Mousavi M (2022). Structural-functional analysis of urban morphology under the influence of rents from the oil economy (Case study: Zanjan city). Research And Urban Planning. 12(47):203-218. [Persian] [Link]
13. Khazli Viznani S, AliAkbari E, Adibi Saadinejad F, Judaki H, Tavakolnia J (2021). Structural analysis of the driving force the spatial developments of the southwest of the metropolis of Tehran (Case study: Islamshahr city). Journal of Regional Planning. 11(42):220-237. [Persian] [Link]
14. Kheiroldin R, Taghvaee AA, Imani shamlou J (2013). Analyzing the spatial evolution of large cities in relation to price changes oil in Iran (Study sample: Tabriz city). Journal of Iranian architecture and urbanism. 4(2):17-36. [Persian] [Link]
15. Mokhtari Malekabadi R, Marsousi N, Hosseini A, Gholami M (2021). Assessing social-culyural sustainability in the extractive cities (Case: Extractive city Asalooyeh). Research and Urban Planning. 5(19):91-110. [Persian] [Link]
16. Nejad Ebrahimi A, Farshchian A, Khoshrokh P (2018). Investigating the theoretical framework of the urban space and the effects of existing forces in the formation of the city (With an aesthetic perspective). Journal of Green Architecture. 3(9):69-61. [Persian] [Link]
17. Pilvar M, Rafiee H, Abbasian Z (2013). Relationship between social welfare in iran and oil revenues during 1374-1388. Social Welfare Quarterly. 13(49):57-87. [Persian] [Link]
18. Raees Ghanavati K, Shamsoddini A, Heidari AA (2022). explaining the key drivers affecting the sustainable development of Mahshahr port city based on futures research approach. Spatial Planning. 26(1):173-199. [Persian] [Link]
19. Sadeghi M, Javan J, Rahnama MR (2015). What is the geographical space? A thinking on the nature of the geographical space from the perspective of hermeneutic phenomenology. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies. 5(19):12-28. [Persian] [Link]
20. Sarvari H (2019). Prioritizing the effective urban space qualities in providing investors expectations, using Delphi technique. case study: Central district of Mashhad city. Geographical Researches. 34(1):21-27. [Persian] [Link] [DOI:10.29252/geores.34.1.21]
21. Shieh E, Behzadfar M, Namdarian AA (2017). Theoretical framework codification for urban scape using the production of space theory and influential forces on scape. Motaleate Shahri. 6(24):81-94. [Persian] [Link]
22. Sadeghzadeh M (2002). Investigating the trend of population increase and its role in spatial changes and urban bottlenecks in Zahedan [Dissertation]. Sistan and Balouchestan: Sistan and Balouchestan University. [Link]
23. Mombeni I, Kalantari A (2020). Experience stability-instability in an oil city (Study of Abadan urban experience). Quarterly Journal of Social Development. 15(2):211-246. [Persian] [Link]
24. Tan J, Zhang P, Lo K, Li J, Liu S (2016). The urban transition performance of resource-based cities in northeast China. Journal of Sustainability. 8(10):1-17. [Link] [DOI:10.3390/su8101022]
25. Yusefi S, Rafieian M, Taghavaea AA (2020). Spatial analysis of the impacts economic and physical capacities of triple areas have on violations of construction, Qazvin city. Geographical Urban Planning Resesrach. 7(4):655-676. [Persian] [Link]