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Volume 37, Issue 4 (2022)
GeoRes 2022, 37(4): 565-573 |
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Received: 2022/10/10 | Accepted: 2022/12/6 | Published: 2022/12/16
Received: 2022/10/10 | Accepted: 2022/12/6 | Published: 2022/12/16
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Rezaei S, Karimian Bostani M, Miri G. Driving Indicators in the Regeneration of Informal Settlements in Zahedan City, Iran. GeoRes 2022; 37 (4) :565-573
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1- Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Zahedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran
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Introduction
Since the end of World War II, one of the most critical social issues in developing countries has been the rapid and uneven growth of urbanization. In other words, urban expansion has constituted one of the most significant social transformations of the past half-century (Heidari Noshahr & Nazarian, 2011). The rise of urbanization has turned the search for a form of urban development conducive to a sustainable and livable human environment into one of humanity’s greatest challenges. Through a continuous process, the physical boundaries and built spaces of cities have expanded both vertically and horizontally in terms of quantity and quality; however, if this trend is rapid and unplanned, it leads to an imbalanced combination of problematic urban spaces (Ebrahimzadeh et al., 2004).
Within this context, one of the most prominent consequences of contemporary urbanization has been the emergence and expansion of vulnerable neighborhoods (informal settlements) in central or peripheral parts of cities (Yazdani et al., 2019). Informal or spontaneous settlement, the prevalent form of urban growth in most developing countries, refers to living environments that do not comply with formal planning, legal regulations, or institutional standards (Oljide et al., 2013). In Iran as well, informal settlement constitutes a major manifestation of urban poverty, formed within or adjacent to cities in a spontaneous manner, lacking building permits and formal urban planning, and inhabited by low-income groups experiencing poor living conditions. These areas are commonly referred to as “marginal settlements,” “informal settlements,” “spontaneous and unregulated settlements,” and “squatter communities.” Such environments are susceptible to social disorders and provoke various social harms. In essence, informal settlement reflects the failure of formal policies and the inability to meet the shelter needs of low-income populations (Haghvardian, 2011).
Urban disadvantaged settlements, as one of the pressing issues in developing countries, have long been influenced by short-term planning and policy interventions that have provided only temporary relief. Therefore, what is needed is a reconsideration of current approaches and the adoption of more precise planning methods—such as urban regeneration informed by futures studies, along with an orientation towards embracing complexity, diversity, and comprehensive understanding of all relevant elements and factors (Mohammadnezhad & Hananchi, 2014). Urban regeneration, as an endogenous development strategy, involves harnessing both the potential and existing capacities within urban planning, striving to create a balanced spatial distribution of population, ensuring coherence among social life foundations, addressing urban poverty, and ultimately fostering public participation and social dynamism (Nourian & Ariana, 2012). This approach is not solely aimed at revitalizing abandoned areas; rather, it also engages with broader concerns such as competitive urban economies and improvements in quality of life, particularly for residents of impoverished neighborhoods. Urban regeneration entails formulating political objectives, implementing them through executive programs, and continuously evaluating performance, ultimately seeking to improve deprived areas across economic, physical, social, and cultural dimensions (Pourahmad et al., 2010).
Consequently, planning for disadvantaged urban areas and understanding the future trajectory of housing and settlement conditions, as well as developing strategies to achieve desirable futures, must rely on appropriate planning mechanisms grounded in contemporary theoretical perspectives. Futures studies, in this regard, serve as a versatile tool applicable for a wide range of purposes. For this reason, several countries have designed foresight programs to address specific national challenges.
During the 1990s, urban restoration with a regeneration-oriented perspective became a central policy concern. This interventionist approach emphasized learning from the past and creating an identity compatible with contemporary life without erasing historical layers (Hajipour, 2005). Accordingly, regeneration policies took shape in Western countries, leading to the emergence of a new policy in the 1990s known as the “City Challenge.” Purely physical redevelopment approaches were criticized by local governments, and municipalities were encouraged to propose regeneration projects, developed in partnership with private, public, and volunteer sectors, to the central government (Kalantari, 2005). The “City Challenge” policy placed particular emphasis on the issues faced by urban social groups. Drawing on community-centered approaches of the 1960s and early 1970s, the 1994 complementary “Single Regeneration Budget” policy fostered the integration of financial resources for such initiatives (Izadi, 2006). A practical definition of urban regeneration requires understanding the relationships between physical characteristics and social responses; recognizing the necessity of relocating certain urban elements; emphasizing improvements in economic conditions as the foundation of urban welfare and quality of life; preventing excessive urban sprawl; and acknowledging the influence of dominant community organizations, political forces, and the emerging discourse of “sustainable development.” Ultimately, urban regeneration has become a major socio-economic development strategy worldwide, shifting gradually from large-scale physical interventions toward addressing diversity, sustainability, and spatial justice in cities (Xiaoliang et al., 2020).
The Commission for the Study of Urban Marginality within Iran’s Planning Organization defines marginal settlements as households and individuals residing within the socio-economic boundary of a city but not integrated into its economic and social systems, thereby remaining on the margins of urban life. Although Iran became familiar with this phenomenon after the land reforms, the broader issue of informal settlement has resulted primarily from inappropriate spatial and housing policies toward low-income groups and the implicit exclusion of these populations from full urban citizenship (Taherkhani & Yazdanfar, 2020).
Zahedan, due to its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, shares strong ethnic, racial, and religious similarities with many groups from these countries. Moreover, political and economic instability in Afghanistan has driven large numbers of Afghan migrants into Zahedan. The city’s service-oriented and commercial functions, along with its strategic location along routes connecting Khorasan, Kerman, and other regional centers, have attracted diverse groups including Sistanis, Baluchis, Kermanis, Khorasanis, and others. These factors have made Zahedan one of the most migration-receiving cities in Iran. The scarcity and high cost of land and housing in the main urban fabric have pushed many migrants, who have built unauthorized mud-brick dwellings in the city’s outskirts without adhering to urban planning regulations, to the urban periphery. Approximately one-third of the city’s population and built-up area now consists of informal settlements and marginalized communities. The target neighborhoods in the present study include Shirabad, Karimabad, Namak Factory, Babaeian, Moradgholi, Cheliabad, Posht-e Garage, and Posht-e Forudgah.
Despite numerous plans in recent decades, such as comprehensive plans, regeneration programs, empowerment initiatives, and physical improvement projects, these efforts have largely failed due to their idealistic and impractical nature, insufficient attention to the needs and preferences of residents, lack of strong and coordinated executive institutions, physical isolation of the neighborhoods, inadequate funding, unresolved legal and property constraints, and specific challenges such as ownership disputes and building deterioration. Addressing the complex challenges of deteriorated urban fabrics requires adopting new planning approaches and decision-making frameworks (Ziari et al., 2016).
Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify the influential factors, understand the interrelationships among these factors, and determine how deteriorated urban fabrics can be guided and reduced in the future.
Methodology
This applied–exploratory research was conducted in 2021 in the city of Zahedan and consisted of two major components. In the first phase, in order to establish a database of the primary factors associated with the fabric of informal settlements (data and information collection), the study employed the environmental scanning technique, which involved reviewing academic articles and printed materials, interviewing experts, and monitoring conferences and symposia, alongside a comprehensive literature review. Accordingly, information was gathered through documentary, library-based, and survey methods and then integrated with parameters derived from interviews with specialists and experts in deteriorated urban fabrics. This process resulted in the development of a database of factors influencing the system of deteriorated urban areas.
The system’s factors were categorized into four subsets:
In the second phase, the components and elements of the deteriorated urban fabric system were classified and analyzed. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) framework were used to analyze research findings.
Zahedan is one of Iran’s major metropolitan areas and the capital of Sistan and Baluchestan Province, located in the southeastern part of the country. As a border city, it holds a strategic geographic, commercial–military, and geopolitical position: the Pakistan railway enters Iran through Mirjaveh and terminates in Zahedan, and the city lies close to the tri-border point between Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Zahedan represents a classic example of the formation of informal settlements driven by urban population overflow and the influx of new migrants. For instance, over the past decade, the surplus population of the disadvantaged neighborhood of Babaeian, located within the urban boundary, has expanded outward into settlements such as Darreh Panjshir, Nookabad, and Qasemabad, all situated outside the official city limits. Newly arrived migrants continue to fuel the growth of such informal settlements. Both new and long-term migrants are in continuous social and cultural interaction with one another.
Findings
The appropriate indicators within the socio-cultural and demographic parameter included ethnic cohesion and solidarity among residents of informal settlements, the activity of institutions influencing urban regeneration processes and their strong engagement with local communities, the adoption of a participatory approach in planning at the managerial level, the presence of professional capacity for fostering cohesion and participation, the strengthening of social capital in marginalized neighborhoods, and the special attention of urban management institutions to existing social and cultural issues. These indicators, respectively, ranked highest among the assessed factors. Overall, the mean value of indicators within this parameter was 3.12, corresponding to a moderate condition.
All indicators related to the economic parameter were found to be in poor condition. Indicators associated with the environmental–physical parameter, such as physical organization and environmental enhancement (3.49), the development of participatory-oriented improvement schemes in deteriorated urban fabrics (3.42), and effective communication among urban service-providing institutions (3.12) were classified as being in a moderate state, while the remaining indicators required strengthening and targeted planning. Within the managerial–institutional and legal parameter, coordination among centers responsible for making key organizational decisions had the highest score, with an average of 3.42 .
Weighting of Indicators and Driving Parameters of Urban Regeneration in Zahedan Using the AHP Model
The weights of the indicators and their corresponding parameters were calculated using Expert Choice software. The inconsistency rate for all pairwise comparisons was below 0.05, indicating a highly acceptable level of consistency based on the evaluation objectives.
According to the analytical hierarchy model, the socio-cultural parameter held the highest importance with a weight of 0.582. The economic parameter ranked second (0.238), followed by the managerial–institutional and legal parameter (0.107), while the environmental–physical parameter had the lowest importance with a weight of 0.072.
Based on the model’s outputs, within the socio-cultural and demographic dimension, improving living conditions through neighborhood-based planning was identified as the most significant indicator. Within the economic dimension, increasing educational attainment among residents of marginalized neighborhoods ranked highest. In the environmental–physical dimension, effective communication among urban service-providing institutions carried the most importance. Within the managerial–institutional and legal dimension, coordinated actions and joint executive efforts among organizations responsible for urban regeneration were determined to be the most critical.
Final Evaluation of Sustainable Urban Regeneration Principles in Target Neighborhoods of Zahedan Using the Balanced Scorecard (BSC)
Based on the assessment of existing conditions and the weighted importance of criteria and indicators, the overall evaluation of urban regeneration principles in the target neighborhoods scored 57.29%, placing the area within the moderate performance category.
Among the main parameters, the socio-cultural and demographic dimension achieved the highest score (62.03%), indicating favorable performance. The environmental–physical dimension ranked next (54.23%), followed by the economic parameter (50.74%) and the managerial–institutional and legal parameter (48.20%), both of which were in the moderate range.
Detailed Indicator Analysis
Within the socio-cultural and demographic parameter, the indicator “special attention of urban management institutions to existing social challenges” achieved the highest score (77.20%), followed by “strengthening social capital in marginalized neighborhoods” (71.80%), placing both in a favorable condition. Other indicators performing well included “professional capacity for enhancing cohesion and participation” (69.80%), “adoption of a participatory approach in planning within target neighborhoods” (68.40%), and “ethnic cohesion among residents of informal settlements” combined with “active engagement of institutions influencing urban regeneration” (66.40%). Remaining indicators of this parameter were in the moderate range, requiring strategic reinforcement.
In the economic parameter, the indicator “employment of the household head as the primary source of income” scored the lowest at 38.40%, reflecting significant socio-economic challenges such as the prevalence of child labor. Other economic indicators fell within the moderate range, requiring policy interventions for improvement.
Environmental–physical indicators were also in the moderate range. The strongest indicators included “physical organization and environmental enhancement” (69.80%), “development of participatory improvement schemes” (68.40%), and “effective communication among service-providing institutions” (62.40%). The weakest indicators included “area improvement toward integration with other city zones” and “enhancing sense of security through appropriate land-use planning.”
Indicators associated with the managerial–institutional and legal parameter were generally weak. The best-performing indicators included “effective and goal-oriented cooperation between executive and managerial bodies” (62.80%) and “coordination in joint executive activities among regeneration stakeholders” (62.40%). The lowest scores were assigned to “coordination among key decision-making centers” and “effective utilization of institutional capacity within NGOs”.
Discussion
The aim of the present study was to identify the key drivers influencing the regeneration of informal urban settlements in Zahedan through a futures studies approach. Based on the findings, the main parameters of the study indicated that the socio-cultural parameter was in a favorable condition, while the economic and environmental–physical parameters were in a moderate condition, and the managerial–institutional and legal parameter was in a weak condition. In line with these results, Behzadfar et al. have identified the social dimension as the most important factor in the assessment of empowerment indicators in informal settlements. Accordingly, accountability, institutional trust, participation, and institutional capacity building are among the effective indicators in the regeneration of informal settlements and contribute to improving the living conditions of vulnerable groups in society [Behzadfar et al., 2018]. Therefore, managerial–institutional, economic, and environmental–physical parameters require greater attention and enhancement as critical drivers in the regeneration of informal settlements in Zahedan.
Overall, the regeneration status of informal settlements in Zahedan required significant attention across all examined dimensions. Informal and spontaneously formed settlements, often developed without proper planning, infrastructure, or urban design principles, not only suffer from physical deficiencies but are also highly influenced by broader national economic growth, macro-level political economy, and regional spatial equity policies. Indeed, the growth or decline of each parameter affects the others. According to Ghorbani et al., socioeconomic parameters are the primary drivers of informal settlement expansion in Mashhad [Ghorbani et al., 2019]. The causal relationships between parameters demonstrate the interactive influence they exert on one another. Strong economic cycles, functioning as initial triggers, can lead to shifts in social parameters and influence decisions to migrate, ultimately contributing to displacement from ancestral lands. Consequently, this cycle fosters the spread of marginalization and the expansion of informal settlements. As Ghanbari et al. [2014] also have noted, rural migration due to the lack of agricultural land, inadequate services and infrastructure, unemployment, and rural poverty is one of the main causes of marginalization and the formation of informal settlements on the urban peripheries.
From an economic perspective, marginalization often results from migrants’ limited access to the urban economy, economic deprivation, and lack of specialized skills, forcing them to reside in makeshift shelters and slums that frequently lack basic urban services such as electricity and telecommunications. Therefore, merely improving housing quality does not constitute a comprehensive solution. Instead, appropriate analysis of the economic and social conditions governing these areas is needed to address underlying socioeconomic issues [Ghazanfarpour et al., 2012]. Similarly, Rezaie and Kamandari have found that migration from small rural and rural-urban settlements, motivated by urban economic attractions such as employment opportunities and higher income, and rural economic repulsions such as low income and limited amenities, plays a pivotal role in forming informal neighborhoods. Such migration leads to the dominance of a poverty culture, subsequently contributing to various urban disorders (e.g., informal employment, unauthorized construction, increased crime rates, adverse cultural and social consequences, economic difficulties, and environmental pollution) [Rezaie & Kamandari, 2014]. Furthermore, inadequate urban planning and shortcomings in comprehensive plans have also contributed to the emergence of these communities. Neglecting low-income groups and failing to provide affordable housing options results in the social exclusion and displacement of the urban poor to peripheral areas [Hataminezhad, 2001].
Addressing economic factors, such as reducing income inequality among households in these areas, improving income and employment levels, and raising educational attainment, can play a substantial role in reducing informal settlements and preventing their expansion, as well as promoting their regeneration. Economic stagnation is clearly reflected in the physical condition of these neighborhoods. Economic revitalization can be expected to initiate positive physical transformations, and, in turn, improvements in physical structure can further stimulate economic vibrancy. Informal settlements possess significant potential for regeneration. Implementing participatory upgrading plans in deteriorated areas, enhancing infrastructure networks, strengthening collaboration among responsible institutions, NGOs, and local residents to mitigate environmental pollution, and improving the quality of housing support services are among the actions required to enhance the environmental-physical dimension of informal settlements in Zahedan. Achieving these policy goals is contingent upon strengthening the managerial–institutional and legal dimensions.
From a social perspective, due to inadequate educational and welfare facilities and low levels of literacy and education in peripheral areas of Iranian cities, education is often provided at the most basic level. Insufficient budget allocation for education in these areas results in incomplete socialization processes among children and adolescents, contributing significantly to high rates of social deviance. In this regard, the findings of Salehi Amiri and Khodaie highlight the role of inadequate educational facilities as a factor promoting crime and delinquency in marginalized urban areas [Salehi Amiri & Khodaie, 2010]. Enhancing socio-cultural dimensions is therefore a critical component of regenerating informal settlements. As previously noted, contemporary urban rehabilitation approaches emphasize social interaction and prioritize the role of social groups. Indeed, the peripheral areas of cities, particularly rural settlements recently incorporated into urban boundaries, represent key sources of latent social capital due to their strong rural social networks. Strengthening these social ties to support urban development objectives highlights the importance of social capital. These peripheral and newly incorporated rural neighborhoods, endowed with robust traditional social networks, can significantly facilitate and accelerate regeneration efforts through effective and collaborative participation. In this context, Zhai and Ng have found that strong religious and ethnic social capital among residents influenced the trajectory of informal settlement regeneration in China, compelling local governments to respect and preserve community lifestyles during the regeneration process [Zhai & Ng, 2013]. Similarly, Colantonio and Dixon emphasize participation, social mix, and social capital as core themes in the concept of urban regeneration [Colantonio & Dixon, 2011]. Bevilacqua et al. further have demonstrated that community participation in decision-making is essential for ensuring high-quality sustainable regeneration, suggesting that increased public participation and public–private partnerships improve regeneration outcomes [Bevilacqua, 2013].
Informal settlement development is a significant socio-economic and political challenge affecting many cities worldwide, particularly in developing countries such as Iran and cities like Zahedan. Addressing this phenomenon requires avoiding unilateral approaches and simultaneously pursuing preventive and rehabilitative interventions at both macro and micro levels. Urban regeneration in informal settlements is inherently a long-term, strategic, and sustainability-oriented process. Based on the findings of this study, several actions are recommended for the regeneration of Zahedan, including: enhancing the technical and professional capacity of urban management and institutions involved in regeneration; integrating policies across urban sectors (transportation, housing, environment, etc.); establishing a centralized body for coordinating policies and planning related to informal settlement regeneration; enabling citizen participation in the regeneration of Zahedan; developing standards for evaluating urban management services; regularly assessing the performance of city officials and management systems in regeneration; mandating cooperation among all formal and informal institutions involved in regeneration; increasing NGO engagement in regeneration activities; improving mechanisms for citizen participation and obligating all relevant organizations to collaborate and coordinate in urban regeneration initiatives.
Conclusion
Numerous factors influence the regeneration of informal settlements. Identifying and examining the key parameters, along with determining the indicators that affect the redevelopment of these areas, constitute an essential step toward rehabilitating such settlements and transforming them into formal residential zones that contribute to urban growth and development.
The peripheral location of informal settlements in Zahedan has led to undesirable spatial expansion of the city. Among the parameters influencing the regeneration of these informal settlements, the managerial–institutional dimension requires greater attention, as it significantly affects the status of other parameters, including socio-cultural and demographic, economic, and environmental–physical factors.
Acknowledgments: Nothing has been reported by the authors.
Ethical Permission: Nothing has been reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: No conflicts of interest were present.
Authors’ Contributions: Rezaei S (First Author), Introduction Writer/Methodologist/Principal Researcher (40%); Karimian Bostani M (Second Author), Discussion Writer/Introduction Writer/Methodologist (30%);
Miri Gh (Third Author), Discussion Writer/Statistical Analyst (30%)
Funding: The financial resources for this research were provided through personal funds.
Since the end of World War II, one of the most critical social issues in developing countries has been the rapid and uneven growth of urbanization. In other words, urban expansion has constituted one of the most significant social transformations of the past half-century (Heidari Noshahr & Nazarian, 2011). The rise of urbanization has turned the search for a form of urban development conducive to a sustainable and livable human environment into one of humanity’s greatest challenges. Through a continuous process, the physical boundaries and built spaces of cities have expanded both vertically and horizontally in terms of quantity and quality; however, if this trend is rapid and unplanned, it leads to an imbalanced combination of problematic urban spaces (Ebrahimzadeh et al., 2004).
Within this context, one of the most prominent consequences of contemporary urbanization has been the emergence and expansion of vulnerable neighborhoods (informal settlements) in central or peripheral parts of cities (Yazdani et al., 2019). Informal or spontaneous settlement, the prevalent form of urban growth in most developing countries, refers to living environments that do not comply with formal planning, legal regulations, or institutional standards (Oljide et al., 2013). In Iran as well, informal settlement constitutes a major manifestation of urban poverty, formed within or adjacent to cities in a spontaneous manner, lacking building permits and formal urban planning, and inhabited by low-income groups experiencing poor living conditions. These areas are commonly referred to as “marginal settlements,” “informal settlements,” “spontaneous and unregulated settlements,” and “squatter communities.” Such environments are susceptible to social disorders and provoke various social harms. In essence, informal settlement reflects the failure of formal policies and the inability to meet the shelter needs of low-income populations (Haghvardian, 2011).
Urban disadvantaged settlements, as one of the pressing issues in developing countries, have long been influenced by short-term planning and policy interventions that have provided only temporary relief. Therefore, what is needed is a reconsideration of current approaches and the adoption of more precise planning methods—such as urban regeneration informed by futures studies, along with an orientation towards embracing complexity, diversity, and comprehensive understanding of all relevant elements and factors (Mohammadnezhad & Hananchi, 2014). Urban regeneration, as an endogenous development strategy, involves harnessing both the potential and existing capacities within urban planning, striving to create a balanced spatial distribution of population, ensuring coherence among social life foundations, addressing urban poverty, and ultimately fostering public participation and social dynamism (Nourian & Ariana, 2012). This approach is not solely aimed at revitalizing abandoned areas; rather, it also engages with broader concerns such as competitive urban economies and improvements in quality of life, particularly for residents of impoverished neighborhoods. Urban regeneration entails formulating political objectives, implementing them through executive programs, and continuously evaluating performance, ultimately seeking to improve deprived areas across economic, physical, social, and cultural dimensions (Pourahmad et al., 2010).
Consequently, planning for disadvantaged urban areas and understanding the future trajectory of housing and settlement conditions, as well as developing strategies to achieve desirable futures, must rely on appropriate planning mechanisms grounded in contemporary theoretical perspectives. Futures studies, in this regard, serve as a versatile tool applicable for a wide range of purposes. For this reason, several countries have designed foresight programs to address specific national challenges.
During the 1990s, urban restoration with a regeneration-oriented perspective became a central policy concern. This interventionist approach emphasized learning from the past and creating an identity compatible with contemporary life without erasing historical layers (Hajipour, 2005). Accordingly, regeneration policies took shape in Western countries, leading to the emergence of a new policy in the 1990s known as the “City Challenge.” Purely physical redevelopment approaches were criticized by local governments, and municipalities were encouraged to propose regeneration projects, developed in partnership with private, public, and volunteer sectors, to the central government (Kalantari, 2005). The “City Challenge” policy placed particular emphasis on the issues faced by urban social groups. Drawing on community-centered approaches of the 1960s and early 1970s, the 1994 complementary “Single Regeneration Budget” policy fostered the integration of financial resources for such initiatives (Izadi, 2006). A practical definition of urban regeneration requires understanding the relationships between physical characteristics and social responses; recognizing the necessity of relocating certain urban elements; emphasizing improvements in economic conditions as the foundation of urban welfare and quality of life; preventing excessive urban sprawl; and acknowledging the influence of dominant community organizations, political forces, and the emerging discourse of “sustainable development.” Ultimately, urban regeneration has become a major socio-economic development strategy worldwide, shifting gradually from large-scale physical interventions toward addressing diversity, sustainability, and spatial justice in cities (Xiaoliang et al., 2020).
The Commission for the Study of Urban Marginality within Iran’s Planning Organization defines marginal settlements as households and individuals residing within the socio-economic boundary of a city but not integrated into its economic and social systems, thereby remaining on the margins of urban life. Although Iran became familiar with this phenomenon after the land reforms, the broader issue of informal settlement has resulted primarily from inappropriate spatial and housing policies toward low-income groups and the implicit exclusion of these populations from full urban citizenship (Taherkhani & Yazdanfar, 2020).
Zahedan, due to its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, shares strong ethnic, racial, and religious similarities with many groups from these countries. Moreover, political and economic instability in Afghanistan has driven large numbers of Afghan migrants into Zahedan. The city’s service-oriented and commercial functions, along with its strategic location along routes connecting Khorasan, Kerman, and other regional centers, have attracted diverse groups including Sistanis, Baluchis, Kermanis, Khorasanis, and others. These factors have made Zahedan one of the most migration-receiving cities in Iran. The scarcity and high cost of land and housing in the main urban fabric have pushed many migrants, who have built unauthorized mud-brick dwellings in the city’s outskirts without adhering to urban planning regulations, to the urban periphery. Approximately one-third of the city’s population and built-up area now consists of informal settlements and marginalized communities. The target neighborhoods in the present study include Shirabad, Karimabad, Namak Factory, Babaeian, Moradgholi, Cheliabad, Posht-e Garage, and Posht-e Forudgah.
Despite numerous plans in recent decades, such as comprehensive plans, regeneration programs, empowerment initiatives, and physical improvement projects, these efforts have largely failed due to their idealistic and impractical nature, insufficient attention to the needs and preferences of residents, lack of strong and coordinated executive institutions, physical isolation of the neighborhoods, inadequate funding, unresolved legal and property constraints, and specific challenges such as ownership disputes and building deterioration. Addressing the complex challenges of deteriorated urban fabrics requires adopting new planning approaches and decision-making frameworks (Ziari et al., 2016).
Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify the influential factors, understand the interrelationships among these factors, and determine how deteriorated urban fabrics can be guided and reduced in the future.
Methodology
This applied–exploratory research was conducted in 2021 in the city of Zahedan and consisted of two major components. In the first phase, in order to establish a database of the primary factors associated with the fabric of informal settlements (data and information collection), the study employed the environmental scanning technique, which involved reviewing academic articles and printed materials, interviewing experts, and monitoring conferences and symposia, alongside a comprehensive literature review. Accordingly, information was gathered through documentary, library-based, and survey methods and then integrated with parameters derived from interviews with specialists and experts in deteriorated urban fabrics. This process resulted in the development of a database of factors influencing the system of deteriorated urban areas.
The system’s factors were categorized into four subsets:
- economic,
- social and cultural,
- legal and managerial, and
- environmental and physical.
- Organizations that directly participate in drafting and implementing regeneration plans in the area, including various departments of the municipality, the Municipal Cultural–Social and Sports Organization, the Urban Development and Renovation Organization, the provincial Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts Organization of Sistan and Baluchestan, the Islamic City Council, and the Endowments and Charity Affairs Organization;
- Voluntary associations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) involved in socio-cultural and physical regeneration of the region;
- Religious and security institutions influential in regeneration processes, as well as the provincial law enforcement agency;
- Selected private-sector organizations directly involved in developing and implementing regeneration plans in the study area.
In the second phase, the components and elements of the deteriorated urban fabric system were classified and analyzed. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) framework were used to analyze research findings.
Zahedan is one of Iran’s major metropolitan areas and the capital of Sistan and Baluchestan Province, located in the southeastern part of the country. As a border city, it holds a strategic geographic, commercial–military, and geopolitical position: the Pakistan railway enters Iran through Mirjaveh and terminates in Zahedan, and the city lies close to the tri-border point between Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Zahedan represents a classic example of the formation of informal settlements driven by urban population overflow and the influx of new migrants. For instance, over the past decade, the surplus population of the disadvantaged neighborhood of Babaeian, located within the urban boundary, has expanded outward into settlements such as Darreh Panjshir, Nookabad, and Qasemabad, all situated outside the official city limits. Newly arrived migrants continue to fuel the growth of such informal settlements. Both new and long-term migrants are in continuous social and cultural interaction with one another.
Findings
The appropriate indicators within the socio-cultural and demographic parameter included ethnic cohesion and solidarity among residents of informal settlements, the activity of institutions influencing urban regeneration processes and their strong engagement with local communities, the adoption of a participatory approach in planning at the managerial level, the presence of professional capacity for fostering cohesion and participation, the strengthening of social capital in marginalized neighborhoods, and the special attention of urban management institutions to existing social and cultural issues. These indicators, respectively, ranked highest among the assessed factors. Overall, the mean value of indicators within this parameter was 3.12, corresponding to a moderate condition.
All indicators related to the economic parameter were found to be in poor condition. Indicators associated with the environmental–physical parameter, such as physical organization and environmental enhancement (3.49), the development of participatory-oriented improvement schemes in deteriorated urban fabrics (3.42), and effective communication among urban service-providing institutions (3.12) were classified as being in a moderate state, while the remaining indicators required strengthening and targeted planning. Within the managerial–institutional and legal parameter, coordination among centers responsible for making key organizational decisions had the highest score, with an average of 3.42 .
Weighting of Indicators and Driving Parameters of Urban Regeneration in Zahedan Using the AHP Model
The weights of the indicators and their corresponding parameters were calculated using Expert Choice software. The inconsistency rate for all pairwise comparisons was below 0.05, indicating a highly acceptable level of consistency based on the evaluation objectives.
According to the analytical hierarchy model, the socio-cultural parameter held the highest importance with a weight of 0.582. The economic parameter ranked second (0.238), followed by the managerial–institutional and legal parameter (0.107), while the environmental–physical parameter had the lowest importance with a weight of 0.072.
Based on the model’s outputs, within the socio-cultural and demographic dimension, improving living conditions through neighborhood-based planning was identified as the most significant indicator. Within the economic dimension, increasing educational attainment among residents of marginalized neighborhoods ranked highest. In the environmental–physical dimension, effective communication among urban service-providing institutions carried the most importance. Within the managerial–institutional and legal dimension, coordinated actions and joint executive efforts among organizations responsible for urban regeneration were determined to be the most critical.
Final Evaluation of Sustainable Urban Regeneration Principles in Target Neighborhoods of Zahedan Using the Balanced Scorecard (BSC)
Based on the assessment of existing conditions and the weighted importance of criteria and indicators, the overall evaluation of urban regeneration principles in the target neighborhoods scored 57.29%, placing the area within the moderate performance category.
Among the main parameters, the socio-cultural and demographic dimension achieved the highest score (62.03%), indicating favorable performance. The environmental–physical dimension ranked next (54.23%), followed by the economic parameter (50.74%) and the managerial–institutional and legal parameter (48.20%), both of which were in the moderate range.
Detailed Indicator Analysis
Within the socio-cultural and demographic parameter, the indicator “special attention of urban management institutions to existing social challenges” achieved the highest score (77.20%), followed by “strengthening social capital in marginalized neighborhoods” (71.80%), placing both in a favorable condition. Other indicators performing well included “professional capacity for enhancing cohesion and participation” (69.80%), “adoption of a participatory approach in planning within target neighborhoods” (68.40%), and “ethnic cohesion among residents of informal settlements” combined with “active engagement of institutions influencing urban regeneration” (66.40%). Remaining indicators of this parameter were in the moderate range, requiring strategic reinforcement.
In the economic parameter, the indicator “employment of the household head as the primary source of income” scored the lowest at 38.40%, reflecting significant socio-economic challenges such as the prevalence of child labor. Other economic indicators fell within the moderate range, requiring policy interventions for improvement.
Environmental–physical indicators were also in the moderate range. The strongest indicators included “physical organization and environmental enhancement” (69.80%), “development of participatory improvement schemes” (68.40%), and “effective communication among service-providing institutions” (62.40%). The weakest indicators included “area improvement toward integration with other city zones” and “enhancing sense of security through appropriate land-use planning.”
Indicators associated with the managerial–institutional and legal parameter were generally weak. The best-performing indicators included “effective and goal-oriented cooperation between executive and managerial bodies” (62.80%) and “coordination in joint executive activities among regeneration stakeholders” (62.40%). The lowest scores were assigned to “coordination among key decision-making centers” and “effective utilization of institutional capacity within NGOs”.
Discussion
The aim of the present study was to identify the key drivers influencing the regeneration of informal urban settlements in Zahedan through a futures studies approach. Based on the findings, the main parameters of the study indicated that the socio-cultural parameter was in a favorable condition, while the economic and environmental–physical parameters were in a moderate condition, and the managerial–institutional and legal parameter was in a weak condition. In line with these results, Behzadfar et al. have identified the social dimension as the most important factor in the assessment of empowerment indicators in informal settlements. Accordingly, accountability, institutional trust, participation, and institutional capacity building are among the effective indicators in the regeneration of informal settlements and contribute to improving the living conditions of vulnerable groups in society [Behzadfar et al., 2018]. Therefore, managerial–institutional, economic, and environmental–physical parameters require greater attention and enhancement as critical drivers in the regeneration of informal settlements in Zahedan.
Overall, the regeneration status of informal settlements in Zahedan required significant attention across all examined dimensions. Informal and spontaneously formed settlements, often developed without proper planning, infrastructure, or urban design principles, not only suffer from physical deficiencies but are also highly influenced by broader national economic growth, macro-level political economy, and regional spatial equity policies. Indeed, the growth or decline of each parameter affects the others. According to Ghorbani et al., socioeconomic parameters are the primary drivers of informal settlement expansion in Mashhad [Ghorbani et al., 2019]. The causal relationships between parameters demonstrate the interactive influence they exert on one another. Strong economic cycles, functioning as initial triggers, can lead to shifts in social parameters and influence decisions to migrate, ultimately contributing to displacement from ancestral lands. Consequently, this cycle fosters the spread of marginalization and the expansion of informal settlements. As Ghanbari et al. [2014] also have noted, rural migration due to the lack of agricultural land, inadequate services and infrastructure, unemployment, and rural poverty is one of the main causes of marginalization and the formation of informal settlements on the urban peripheries.
From an economic perspective, marginalization often results from migrants’ limited access to the urban economy, economic deprivation, and lack of specialized skills, forcing them to reside in makeshift shelters and slums that frequently lack basic urban services such as electricity and telecommunications. Therefore, merely improving housing quality does not constitute a comprehensive solution. Instead, appropriate analysis of the economic and social conditions governing these areas is needed to address underlying socioeconomic issues [Ghazanfarpour et al., 2012]. Similarly, Rezaie and Kamandari have found that migration from small rural and rural-urban settlements, motivated by urban economic attractions such as employment opportunities and higher income, and rural economic repulsions such as low income and limited amenities, plays a pivotal role in forming informal neighborhoods. Such migration leads to the dominance of a poverty culture, subsequently contributing to various urban disorders (e.g., informal employment, unauthorized construction, increased crime rates, adverse cultural and social consequences, economic difficulties, and environmental pollution) [Rezaie & Kamandari, 2014]. Furthermore, inadequate urban planning and shortcomings in comprehensive plans have also contributed to the emergence of these communities. Neglecting low-income groups and failing to provide affordable housing options results in the social exclusion and displacement of the urban poor to peripheral areas [Hataminezhad, 2001].
Addressing economic factors, such as reducing income inequality among households in these areas, improving income and employment levels, and raising educational attainment, can play a substantial role in reducing informal settlements and preventing their expansion, as well as promoting their regeneration. Economic stagnation is clearly reflected in the physical condition of these neighborhoods. Economic revitalization can be expected to initiate positive physical transformations, and, in turn, improvements in physical structure can further stimulate economic vibrancy. Informal settlements possess significant potential for regeneration. Implementing participatory upgrading plans in deteriorated areas, enhancing infrastructure networks, strengthening collaboration among responsible institutions, NGOs, and local residents to mitigate environmental pollution, and improving the quality of housing support services are among the actions required to enhance the environmental-physical dimension of informal settlements in Zahedan. Achieving these policy goals is contingent upon strengthening the managerial–institutional and legal dimensions.
From a social perspective, due to inadequate educational and welfare facilities and low levels of literacy and education in peripheral areas of Iranian cities, education is often provided at the most basic level. Insufficient budget allocation for education in these areas results in incomplete socialization processes among children and adolescents, contributing significantly to high rates of social deviance. In this regard, the findings of Salehi Amiri and Khodaie highlight the role of inadequate educational facilities as a factor promoting crime and delinquency in marginalized urban areas [Salehi Amiri & Khodaie, 2010]. Enhancing socio-cultural dimensions is therefore a critical component of regenerating informal settlements. As previously noted, contemporary urban rehabilitation approaches emphasize social interaction and prioritize the role of social groups. Indeed, the peripheral areas of cities, particularly rural settlements recently incorporated into urban boundaries, represent key sources of latent social capital due to their strong rural social networks. Strengthening these social ties to support urban development objectives highlights the importance of social capital. These peripheral and newly incorporated rural neighborhoods, endowed with robust traditional social networks, can significantly facilitate and accelerate regeneration efforts through effective and collaborative participation. In this context, Zhai and Ng have found that strong religious and ethnic social capital among residents influenced the trajectory of informal settlement regeneration in China, compelling local governments to respect and preserve community lifestyles during the regeneration process [Zhai & Ng, 2013]. Similarly, Colantonio and Dixon emphasize participation, social mix, and social capital as core themes in the concept of urban regeneration [Colantonio & Dixon, 2011]. Bevilacqua et al. further have demonstrated that community participation in decision-making is essential for ensuring high-quality sustainable regeneration, suggesting that increased public participation and public–private partnerships improve regeneration outcomes [Bevilacqua, 2013].
Informal settlement development is a significant socio-economic and political challenge affecting many cities worldwide, particularly in developing countries such as Iran and cities like Zahedan. Addressing this phenomenon requires avoiding unilateral approaches and simultaneously pursuing preventive and rehabilitative interventions at both macro and micro levels. Urban regeneration in informal settlements is inherently a long-term, strategic, and sustainability-oriented process. Based on the findings of this study, several actions are recommended for the regeneration of Zahedan, including: enhancing the technical and professional capacity of urban management and institutions involved in regeneration; integrating policies across urban sectors (transportation, housing, environment, etc.); establishing a centralized body for coordinating policies and planning related to informal settlement regeneration; enabling citizen participation in the regeneration of Zahedan; developing standards for evaluating urban management services; regularly assessing the performance of city officials and management systems in regeneration; mandating cooperation among all formal and informal institutions involved in regeneration; increasing NGO engagement in regeneration activities; improving mechanisms for citizen participation and obligating all relevant organizations to collaborate and coordinate in urban regeneration initiatives.
Conclusion
Numerous factors influence the regeneration of informal settlements. Identifying and examining the key parameters, along with determining the indicators that affect the redevelopment of these areas, constitute an essential step toward rehabilitating such settlements and transforming them into formal residential zones that contribute to urban growth and development.
The peripheral location of informal settlements in Zahedan has led to undesirable spatial expansion of the city. Among the parameters influencing the regeneration of these informal settlements, the managerial–institutional dimension requires greater attention, as it significantly affects the status of other parameters, including socio-cultural and demographic, economic, and environmental–physical factors.
Acknowledgments: Nothing has been reported by the authors.
Ethical Permission: Nothing has been reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: No conflicts of interest were present.
Authors’ Contributions: Rezaei S (First Author), Introduction Writer/Methodologist/Principal Researcher (40%); Karimian Bostani M (Second Author), Discussion Writer/Introduction Writer/Methodologist (30%);
Miri Gh (Third Author), Discussion Writer/Statistical Analyst (30%)
Funding: The financial resources for this research were provided through personal funds.
Keywords:
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