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Volume 39, Issue 3 (2024)
GeoRes 2024, 39(3): 289-297 |
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History
Received: 2024/01/18 | Accepted: 2024/07/24 | Published: 2024/09/28
Received: 2024/01/18 | Accepted: 2024/07/24 | Published: 2024/09/28
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Ghezeli Jahromi S, Ahmadi F, Farrokhi M, Talebi Z. Explaining the Revitalization of Historical Areas in Shiraz with a Foresight Approach. GeoRes 2024; 39 (3) :289-297
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1- Department of Urban Planning, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2- “Department of Urban Planning” and “Research Center for New Horizons in Architecture and Urban Planning”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2- “Department of Urban Planning” and “Research Center for New Horizons in Architecture and Urban Planning”, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
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Background
The deterioration of urban fabrics, especially historical ones, due to demographic changes, migration, and physical and social transformations, has led to a decline in the quality of life in these areas. Urban regeneration has emerged as a modern approach to reviving urban functions and addressing the multifaceted problems of these neighborhoods.
Previous Studies
Previous research has explored the many facets of urban deterioration and the strategies for confronting it. Peyvastehgar et al. (2017) have analyzed urban decay through physical, economic, social, cultural, and environmental lenses. Lei et al. (2023) and Yao et al. (2023) underscored the importance of regeneration measures at multiple scales for restoring urban functions. Likewise, Hoseini and Moradian Harandi (2023) and Rousta et al. (2022) present regeneration as an effective response to challenges such as economic recession and social problems. Ghaenoie and Khan Mohammadi (2015) have shown that since the 1990s this approach has shifted toward a more holistic perspective in several countries, including the Netherlands. Additional studies e.g., Karimi Yazdi et al. (2019) have examined how regeneration enhances urban quality of life. Nevertheless, investigations that link urban regeneration with futures studies in historical districts remain very scarce.
Aim(s)
The aim of this study was to examine the key factors influencing the regeneration of historical districts in Shiraz and to evaluate the potential scenarios for the future regeneration of these areas.
Research Type
This study is applied and futures-oriented in nature and was conducted using a mixed-method approach, including both documentary and field research.
Research Society, Place and Time
The research population consisted of experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, with relevant academic backgrounds in urbanism, sociology, management, futures studies, and urban regeneration. This study was conducted in 2023 in the historical fabric of District 8 of Shiraz, covering an area of 378 hectares and comprising 12 traditional neighborhoods.
Sampling Method and Number
The sampling method in this study was purposive, and the sample included 30 experts and specialists in the field of urban planning. Participants were selected based on specific criteria such as their level of education (Master’s and Ph.D.) and relevant expertise.
Used Devices & Materials
The tools and materials used in this study included a researcher-designed questionnaire, future studies software MicMac and Scenario Wizard, as well as study resources and documents for designing the indicators. The questionnaire was finalized after validity assessment by experts and reliability testing with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.89.
Findings by Text
30 experts and specialists in the field of urban planning participated in this study (Table 1)
Table 1. Participant characteristics
In this study, 47 indicators related to the regeneration of the historical fabric of Shiraz were identified, and a 47×47 matrix was developed to analyze the interrelationships among them. The results showed that this matrix, with over 91% density, reflects the high and complex influence of the indicators on each other. Out of 2,022 evaluated relationships, 187 had no effect (value zero), 510 had weak influence (value 1), 409 had moderate influence (value 2), 467 had strong influence (value 3), and 636 had potential influence (value 4). The distribution of influential indicators demonstrated their wide presence across all areas of the influence–influenceability graph (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Distribution of direct factors in the influence–dependency diagram
The structural connectivity of the indicators at 5% and 100% thresholds also revealed different patterns of dependency and impact among them (Figure 2). Among these, 14 indicators were identified as key drivers in the scenario-writing process. Then, through document analysis and expert opinions, a final list of 20 indicators was compiled (Table 2). These indicators covered topics such as destruction of historic buildings, level of urban services, safety against natural disasters, lack of specialized personnel, weak policymaking, budget shortages, and declining residential interest in the fabric.
Figure 2. Graphical diagram of indicator relationships at 100% influence (bottom) and 5% influence (top)
The collected data were entered into the Scenario Wizard software, defining three future states for the city: "Optimal State," "Static State," and "Critical State." The robust scenarios designed included 6 selected scenarios out of 121 possible ones, among which 61 scenarios were favorable, 36 static, and 24 critical. Results showed that Scenario 4, with 13 favorable conditions and no critical issues, was the best option, followed by Scenario 6 with 12 favorable conditions and only one critical indicator, ranked second (Table 3). Conversely, Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 5 were recognized as critical scenarios, with Scenario 5 being the worst, having a critical rate of 33.33%. These scenarios reflected neglect of indicators such as building restoration, investor attraction, improved lighting and urban services, and effective policymaking.
Table 3. Coefficients of possible conditions by six scenarios
Main Comparisons to Similar Studies
The findings of this study align with many previous studies that emphasize the need to identify key drivers and develop realistic scenarios for the regeneration of historical urban fabrics. Similar to the results of this research, which identified critical factors such as lack of funding, weak policymaking, and physical threats, Taghinejad et al. (2020) also identify financial resources and macro-level policies as the most influential factors in regeneration, while considering some incentive policies to have minimal impact. Additionally, Heidari et al. (2022), in a similar study conducted in the city of Kerman, have highlighted the importance of integrated management and the preservation of the cultural identity of the historical fabric which is consistent with those of this research. Pourmohammadi et al. (2020), using a foresight approach, have emphasized the necessity of targeted policymaking for realizing desirable scenarios. Meanwhile, the study by Moaiedfar and Saberi (2020) also showes that without practical solutions and a strategic vision toward the fabric, regeneration efforts cannot succeed. Finally, Rajabi and Rahimian also emphasize the role of public participation and government support in the success of regeneration efforts [Rajabi et al., 2021; Rahimian et al., 2012].
Suggestions
It is recommended that new foresight methods tailored to the characteristics of historical urban fabrics be developed, as this would lead to more accurate and effective approaches to the preservation and management of these areas. Additionally, subsidies, banking facilities, tax exemptions, and reduced permit issuance fees should be allocated to projects located within historical urban areas. Furthermore, the private sector should be encouraged and incentivized to invest in these historical districts.
Conclusion
The key factors influencing the future of the regeneration of Shiraz's historical fabric include the deterioration of valuable historical buildings, insufficient funding for restoration, the loss of historical value in the public’s perception, the underutilization of the area's full tourism potential, the declining tendency of middle- and upper-income groups to reside in the area, and the outmigration of the native population.
Acknowledgments: None reported by the authors.
Ethical Permission: None reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: This article is derived from the first author's dissertation. There is no conflict of interest regarding the writing and publication of this article.
Authors’ Contributions: Ghezeli S (First Author): Introduction Writer/Discussion Writer/Methodologist (25%); Ahmadi F (Second Author): Discussion Writer/Methodologist (25%); Farrokhi M (Third Author): Discussion Writer/Introduction Writer (25%); Talebi Z (Fourth Author): Introduction Writer/Discussion Writer (25%)
Funding: None reported by the authors.
The deterioration of urban fabrics, especially historical ones, due to demographic changes, migration, and physical and social transformations, has led to a decline in the quality of life in these areas. Urban regeneration has emerged as a modern approach to reviving urban functions and addressing the multifaceted problems of these neighborhoods.
Previous Studies
Previous research has explored the many facets of urban deterioration and the strategies for confronting it. Peyvastehgar et al. (2017) have analyzed urban decay through physical, economic, social, cultural, and environmental lenses. Lei et al. (2023) and Yao et al. (2023) underscored the importance of regeneration measures at multiple scales for restoring urban functions. Likewise, Hoseini and Moradian Harandi (2023) and Rousta et al. (2022) present regeneration as an effective response to challenges such as economic recession and social problems. Ghaenoie and Khan Mohammadi (2015) have shown that since the 1990s this approach has shifted toward a more holistic perspective in several countries, including the Netherlands. Additional studies e.g., Karimi Yazdi et al. (2019) have examined how regeneration enhances urban quality of life. Nevertheless, investigations that link urban regeneration with futures studies in historical districts remain very scarce.
Aim(s)
The aim of this study was to examine the key factors influencing the regeneration of historical districts in Shiraz and to evaluate the potential scenarios for the future regeneration of these areas.
Research Type
This study is applied and futures-oriented in nature and was conducted using a mixed-method approach, including both documentary and field research.
Research Society, Place and Time
The research population consisted of experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, with relevant academic backgrounds in urbanism, sociology, management, futures studies, and urban regeneration. This study was conducted in 2023 in the historical fabric of District 8 of Shiraz, covering an area of 378 hectares and comprising 12 traditional neighborhoods.
Sampling Method and Number
The sampling method in this study was purposive, and the sample included 30 experts and specialists in the field of urban planning. Participants were selected based on specific criteria such as their level of education (Master’s and Ph.D.) and relevant expertise.
Used Devices & Materials
The tools and materials used in this study included a researcher-designed questionnaire, future studies software MicMac and Scenario Wizard, as well as study resources and documents for designing the indicators. The questionnaire was finalized after validity assessment by experts and reliability testing with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.89.
Findings by Text
30 experts and specialists in the field of urban planning participated in this study (Table 1)
Table 1. Participant characteristics
In this study, 47 indicators related to the regeneration of the historical fabric of Shiraz were identified, and a 47×47 matrix was developed to analyze the interrelationships among them. The results showed that this matrix, with over 91% density, reflects the high and complex influence of the indicators on each other. Out of 2,022 evaluated relationships, 187 had no effect (value zero), 510 had weak influence (value 1), 409 had moderate influence (value 2), 467 had strong influence (value 3), and 636 had potential influence (value 4). The distribution of influential indicators demonstrated their wide presence across all areas of the influence–influenceability graph (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Distribution of direct factors in the influence–dependency diagram
The structural connectivity of the indicators at 5% and 100% thresholds also revealed different patterns of dependency and impact among them (Figure 2). Among these, 14 indicators were identified as key drivers in the scenario-writing process. Then, through document analysis and expert opinions, a final list of 20 indicators was compiled (Table 2). These indicators covered topics such as destruction of historic buildings, level of urban services, safety against natural disasters, lack of specialized personnel, weak policymaking, budget shortages, and declining residential interest in the fabric.
Figure 2. Graphical diagram of indicator relationships at 100% influence (bottom) and 5% influence (top)
The collected data were entered into the Scenario Wizard software, defining three future states for the city: "Optimal State," "Static State," and "Critical State." The robust scenarios designed included 6 selected scenarios out of 121 possible ones, among which 61 scenarios were favorable, 36 static, and 24 critical. Results showed that Scenario 4, with 13 favorable conditions and no critical issues, was the best option, followed by Scenario 6 with 12 favorable conditions and only one critical indicator, ranked second (Table 3). Conversely, Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 5 were recognized as critical scenarios, with Scenario 5 being the worst, having a critical rate of 33.33%. These scenarios reflected neglect of indicators such as building restoration, investor attraction, improved lighting and urban services, and effective policymaking.
Table 3. Coefficients of possible conditions by six scenarios
Main Comparisons to Similar Studies
The findings of this study align with many previous studies that emphasize the need to identify key drivers and develop realistic scenarios for the regeneration of historical urban fabrics. Similar to the results of this research, which identified critical factors such as lack of funding, weak policymaking, and physical threats, Taghinejad et al. (2020) also identify financial resources and macro-level policies as the most influential factors in regeneration, while considering some incentive policies to have minimal impact. Additionally, Heidari et al. (2022), in a similar study conducted in the city of Kerman, have highlighted the importance of integrated management and the preservation of the cultural identity of the historical fabric which is consistent with those of this research. Pourmohammadi et al. (2020), using a foresight approach, have emphasized the necessity of targeted policymaking for realizing desirable scenarios. Meanwhile, the study by Moaiedfar and Saberi (2020) also showes that without practical solutions and a strategic vision toward the fabric, regeneration efforts cannot succeed. Finally, Rajabi and Rahimian also emphasize the role of public participation and government support in the success of regeneration efforts [Rajabi et al., 2021; Rahimian et al., 2012].
Suggestions
It is recommended that new foresight methods tailored to the characteristics of historical urban fabrics be developed, as this would lead to more accurate and effective approaches to the preservation and management of these areas. Additionally, subsidies, banking facilities, tax exemptions, and reduced permit issuance fees should be allocated to projects located within historical urban areas. Furthermore, the private sector should be encouraged and incentivized to invest in these historical districts.
Conclusion
The key factors influencing the future of the regeneration of Shiraz's historical fabric include the deterioration of valuable historical buildings, insufficient funding for restoration, the loss of historical value in the public’s perception, the underutilization of the area's full tourism potential, the declining tendency of middle- and upper-income groups to reside in the area, and the outmigration of the native population.
Acknowledgments: None reported by the authors.
Ethical Permission: None reported by the authors.
Conflict of Interest: This article is derived from the first author's dissertation. There is no conflict of interest regarding the writing and publication of this article.
Authors’ Contributions: Ghezeli S (First Author): Introduction Writer/Discussion Writer/Methodologist (25%); Ahmadi F (Second Author): Discussion Writer/Methodologist (25%); Farrokhi M (Third Author): Discussion Writer/Introduction Writer (25%); Talebi Z (Fourth Author): Introduction Writer/Discussion Writer (25%)
Funding: None reported by the authors.
Keywords:
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