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Volume 37, Issue 1 (2022)
GeoRes 2022, 37(1): 141-153 |
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Received: 2021/08/29 | Accepted: 2021/11/16 | Published: 2022/01/22
Received: 2021/08/29 | Accepted: 2021/11/16 | Published: 2022/01/22
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Lotfi H, Noori Kermani A, Ziari K. Spatial Analysis of Physical Resilience Components of Ilam City against Earthquake with a Futuristic Approach. GeoRes 2022; 37 (1) :141-153
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1- Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Geography and Urban planning, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Geography and Urban planning, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
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Introduction
Today, the issue of resilience in human settlements is considered one of the most important areas of study worldwide [Jabareen, 2013]. The resilience of urban systems, as the most advanced form of human settlements, has significant impacts on the environment. Consequently, enhancing sustainability and resilience in cities and human settlements has become a priority, which underscores the importance of urban resilience studies and methods for its assessment in cities [Gharei et al., 2017]. In this regard, the persistent presence of threats such as climate change, disease outbreaks, environmental disasters, and natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes and floods) has increasingly drawn public attention to the concept of resilience in settlements. Moreover, particular emphasis on resilience has grown among scholars and policymakers [Seeliger & Turok, 2013; Ingalls & Stedman, 2016]. Among these threats, environmental hazards have attracted greater attention due to their potential to trigger larger and more prolonged crises [Jabareen, 2013; Vale et al., 2014].
In many countries, especially developing ones, rapid population growth combined with slow development, along with infrastructural and physical disorder, has intensified urban problems and raised the issue of resilient urban settlements [Spaans & Waterhout, 2017; Zhang et al., 2019]. Resilience is defined as the capacity of a system, community, or society affected by hazards to resist, absorb, adapt to, and recover in a timely manner from the impacts of hazards, serving as an effective approach for protecting and restoring the essential functions and structures of society [Gasparini et al., 2014]. Today, analyzing and enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerability to natural hazards have become major and extensive fields within disaster planning and management [Ghadiri et al., 2012].
Cutter proposed a place-based model for assessing hazard resilience. In this perspective, resilience is a measure that reflects the flexibility of geographic space in the face of potential hazards, and different locations exhibit varying levels of resilience depending on their spatial position. This place-based approach is particularly important among geographers for understanding resilience. In this model, the inherent vulnerability and resilience of a place are examined, and the shared dimensions influencing both vulnerability and resilience are identified [Kalantari Khalilabad et al., 2007]. Based on this perspective, hazard mitigation programs should focus on creating and strengthening the characteristics of resilient communities and incorporate the concept of resilience throughout the disaster management cycle [Cutter et al., 2008].
In essence, resilience represents a form of foresight due to the dynamic nature of societal responses to hazards, and it contributes to expanding policy options for coping with uncertainty and change. In this way, increasing disaster resilience can lead to sustainable livelihoods by enhancing adaptive capacity within society [Godschalk, 2003; Tompkins & Adger, 2004; Manyena, 2006]. Futures studies approaches in planning emphasize identifying key factors and driving forces of development within the planning environment so that planners, by possessing tools for controlling and managing the future, can design a desirable future architecture [Beheshti & Zali, 2011].
One of the major challenges faced by most human settlements, particularly large cities worldwide, is natural hazards [Alexander, 2011; Pourahmad et al., 2018]. Given that Iran ranks among the 11 most disaster-prone countries in the world and that earthquakes account for the highest number of human casualties [Ahad Nejad Roshti et al., 2015], it can be stated that most Iranian cities are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazards. Ilam City is no exception and, like many cities in the country, is in a vulnerable condition. In addition to having a history of earthquakes, Ilam suffers from physical deterioration and problematic or low-quality urban fabrics within its urban space [Abdali & Rajaei, 2020]. Earthquakes, as a major threat, are closely linked to societal development, and despite improvements in community capacities in hazard management and technology, the risks associated with earthquakes have continued to increase [Maleki et al., 2018]. The consequences of earthquakes, both in terms of frequency and severity, significantly affect societies [Faraji et al., 2017]. Therefore, it is essential to adopt measures to reduce the impacts of such disasters. Ilam City is located within the major seismic zone of western Iran and faces relatively high seismic risk. Nevertheless, according to existing records and statistics over recent decades, the city has remained distant from major seismic epicenters, and earthquakes in neighboring regions or their aftershocks have not caused significant financial or human losses in this area [Mavedat et al., 2020].
Although earthquakes are natural phenomena, they can be highly destructive; however, urban planning and management can play an effective role in reducing earthquake-related damages. Today, hazard analysis is considered a fundamental requirement in planning in general and urban planning in particular [Maleki et al., 2017]. Numerous studies have addressed environmental hazards and settlement resilience. One study indicated that the most important infrastructure for enhancing urban resilience lies in emphasizing knowledge-based approaches and integrated, knowledge-driven management aligned with institutional interaction and civil society participation [Huck & Monstad, 2019]. Another study demonstrated that achieving sustainable urban resilience results from the flexibility of governance systems and continuous adaptation in line with changes in urban structure and contemporary scientific advancements [Shamsuddin, 2020]. Using seismic vulnerability analysis combined with AHP and GIS, the vulnerability of District 10 of Tehran was assessed based on indicators such as construction materials, building age, population density, and transportation networks [Hataminejad et al., 2007]. In another study, the resilience of Ardabil City to environmental hazards was assessed, and a resilient city model was proposed using a futures studies approach [Mohammadi & Pashazadeh, 2017]. The findings indicated that the most influential dimension affecting Ardabil’s resilience was the physical–managerial dimension, highlighting the urgent need to upgrade infrastructure and establish integrated and systemic management to achieve a resilient city.
Since resilience represents a novel approach to coping with natural disasters and guiding policy frameworks, it requires addressing philosophical (ontological) questions, as ambiguity still surrounds this concept. To enhance resilience, it is first necessary to develop a fundamental understanding of what resilience is, the factors influencing it, and how it can be measured.
Mahmoudzadeh et al. have evaluated the residential fabric of Ilam City from an earthquake crisis management perspective and found that approximately 67.9% of the residential area is vulnerable based on the applied indicators [Mahmoudzadeh et al., 2017]. Mavedat et al. have estimated the spatial distribution of urban resilience from an earthquake crisis perspective using a spatial statistics model (case study: Ilam City) and reported that less than 1% resilience exists in Ilam City [Mavedat et al., 2020]. Another study analyzes the spatial distribution of environmental hazards and ecological crises in Iran, revealing that environmental degradation has increased at an unprecedented rate over recent decades, to the extent that Iran leads many other countries in this regard [Kaviani Rad et al., 2010].
Despite the high population density of Ilam City, no study has yet addressed resilience from a futures studies perspective. Therefore, this article analyzes the spatial resilience of physical indicators within the residential fabric of Ilam City and subsequently identifies the key driving forces of Ilam’s physical resilience to earthquakes through expert consultation and the application of MICMAC software
Methodology
The present descriptive–analytical study was conducted during 2020–2021 in Ilam City. Ilam, the capital of Ilam Province, is geographically located at 33°38′ north latitude and 46°26′ east longitude.
To achieve the research objectives, resilience indicators and resilience levels were identified through a systematic and documentary review of relevant studies. The most important indicators were selected and finalized using a Delphi node and extracted in a researcher-made framework. These indicators included five parameters: building structural system, construction material type, number of floors, parcel grain (urban block size), and building age.
For the spatial analysis of physical resilience components of the residential fabric of Ilam City, the five selected indicators were first classified based on the 2019 statistical blocks provided by the Statistical Center of Iran and the existing land-use layer of Ilam City from 2017. Subsequently, quantitative and qualitative comparisons and classifications were carried out using spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.4.1 (2016). AutoCAD 2013 was employed to generate appropriate visual outputs and maps.
To identify spatial patterns and trends, resilience indicators in Ilam City were analyzed using regression tools available in GeoDa 1.20.0.8 (2021) and ArcGIS 10.4.1 (2016). To determine the spatial distribution pattern of physical resilience in the residential fabric (clustered, random, or dispersed), Moran’s I statistic was applied within the ArcGIS environment. This spatial autocorrelation tool produces five values: Moran’s Index, expected index value, Z-score, and P-value, which are interpreted using a bell-shaped curve within a fluctuation range of −2.5 to +2.5.
Given that there is no strict rule regarding the selection method or number of experts and that expert sample size depends on factors such as sample homogeneity or heterogeneity, research objectives, problem scale, decision quality, the research team’s capacity to manage the study, internal and external validity, data collection time, available resources, scope of the issue, and response acceptance the number of participants is typically fewer than 50, most commonly between 15 and 20, and in homogeneous groups usually between 10 and 15. Accordingly, the statistical sample consisted of 44 experts selected through purposive non-random sampling using the convenience method. Participants included university faculty members, executive and administrative experts from Ilam City, and specialists in the fields of resilience and futures studies, based on the following criteria:
Expert selection criteria:
In the final phase of the research, an in-depth review of the literature and theoretical foundations, along with a synthesis of the findings from the first phase, led to the identification, exploration, and extraction of influential components and criteria. To determine the level of consensus among subject-matter and local experts regarding each factor and its relative importance, the criteria were reduced based on their significance. Accordingly, a Delphi questionnaire was distributed among experts and specialists.
The finalized indicators were analyzed using a futures studies approach based on exploratory structural analysis with the MICMAC software (MICMAC 6.1.2, 2004). The Delphi group was asked to assign scores ranging from 0 to 3 to each driving force based on their direct and indirect influence–dependence relationships (pairwise comparison). A score of 0 indicated no influence, 1 low or negligible influence, 2 moderate influence, 3 high influence, and the letter “P” denoted potential influence. This expert-based cross-impact analysis method produces quantitative results and is founded on impact matrices aimed at assessing the stability or instability of the system under study
Findings
The majority of respondents were male, aged between 20 and 30 years, held doctoral degrees, and had between 1 and 5 years of executive experience.
To determine the status of resilience indicators in Ilam City, the type, area, and proportional share of each indicator were extracted and analyzed. For spatial analysis of the resilience indicators, following the identification of existing conditions, the indicators were classified based on their level of resilience and represented as vector layers using a color spectrum. Analysis of building structural systems indicated that 38% of buildings lacked a structural frame, 24% had steel frames, and 37% had reinforced concrete frames. The presence of high-rise buildings during crises, particularly when combined with unstable construction materials and non-resistant structural systems, can significantly increase casualties and damages. Construction material type and composition constitute critical factors in mitigating potential crises, including natural hazards such as earthquakes. Building age and lifespan also represent key factors and serve as indicators of structural deterioration; as buildings age and become more deteriorated, their resilience to crises decreases while potential damage increases.
Trend analysis in the classification of physical resilience indicators within Ilam’s urban fabric revealed that building structural system, construction material type, and building age exhibited the highest coefficients among influencing factors.
The calculated Global Moran’s I value indicated positive spatial autocorrelation, reflecting a clustered spatial pattern. Based on the Z-score, the probability that such a clustered pattern occurred randomly was less than 5%, confirming the statistical significance of spatial clustering.
Following the assessment of existing conditions, pattern detection, and identification of resilience indicator status in Ilam’s urban fabric, residential land uses were selected and differentiated using hotspot analysis based on parcel size, permeability, and accessibility. The physical resilience of Ilam City was classified into seven categories, among which the completely non-resilient condition accounted for both the highest percentage and the largest spatial extent.
Regression analysis of the physical urban fabric demonstrated that the indicators of building structural system, construction material type, and building age had the strongest explanatory power in determining physical resilience, whereas indicators such as number of floors and parcel grain size showed weaker but still significant effects.
After experts evaluated the degree of influence and dependency among the identified parameters, these relationships were incorporated into a cross-impact analysis matrix. Eight strategic parameters contributing to the physical structure of Ilam City were classified and analyzed. Two types of relationships, direct and indirect were considered, with direct classification applied through a cross-impact matrix to identify and evaluate all direct influences among parameters. Pairwise comparisons were conducted to assess the strength of relationships between parameters.
In line with the futures-oriented approach of the study, the eight parameters were identified through a review of relevant literature and interviews with academic experts and specialists. In the final stage, the selected parameters were organized into an 8×8 cross-impact matrix. Structural analysis validation was conducted using expert panels, and following data collection, the MICMAC technique and cross-impact analysis were applied. The matrix filling rate reached 75%, indicating that 75% of the parameters influenced one another. Overall, among the 64 matrix-based relationships, 25% showed no relationship, 6.25% exhibited weak relationships, 21.88% showed moderate relationships, and 46.87% demonstrated strong relationships. No potential relationships were identified.
The objective of the futures-oriented analysis of physical resilience in Ilam’s residential fabric was to identify key driving forces of resilience based on the cross-impact matrix of direct influences. The results indicated that ground conditions, open spaces, and permeability play a critical role in improving the resilience relationships within Ilam’s physical urban fabric. These three parameters exerted the greatest influence on the system and were therefore identified as key system drivers. Conversely, parameters such as population density, structural strength and stability, residential density, accessibility, and incompatible land uses exhibited the highest levels of dependency, indicating that they are most affected by changes within the system.
Parameters positioned in the northeast quadrant of the influence–dependence map were identified as strategic parameters due to their high levels of direct influence. Strategic parameters typically exhibit strong influence and, in many cases, high dependency. Identifying such parameters is essential in futures studies, as they play a decisive role in shaping system dynamics. Accordingly, three parameters, open space, ground conditions, and permeability, were identified as strategic drivers of physical resilience in Ilam’s residential fabric. These parameters represent the most influential components within the system, and the future resilience roadmap of Ilam’s physical urban structure largely depends on them. Furthermore, the spatial structure of direct drivers within the physical resilience roadmap demonstrated a full range of relationship types, confirming that ground conditions, open spaces, and permeability constitute the most significant indicators shaping the spatial framework of physical resilience in Ilam City
Discussion
The present study aimed to conduct a spatial analysis of the physical resilience components of Ilam City against earthquakes using a futures studies approach. Following the extraction of physical resilience indicators of Ilam’s urban fabric, the findings revealed that key influencing factors, namely building structural systems, construction material type, and building age, accounted for the highest coefficients among the resilience indicators. The results indicate that Ilam City is not in a favorable condition in terms of earthquake resilience. These findings are consistent with previous studies conducted by Mahmoudzadeh et al., Mavedat et al., and Abdali and Rajaei [Mahmoudzadeh et al., 2017; Mavedat et al., 2020; Abdali & Rajaei, 2020].
In the present research, eight parameters were identified as key factors within the futures studies framework. Among them, ground conditions, open spaces, and permeability play a critical role in improving the resilience relationships of Ilam’s physical urban fabric. In fact, these three parameters exert the greatest influence on the system and were therefore identified as key system parameters. Conversely, population density, structural strength and stability, residential density, accessibility, and incompatible land uses exhibited the highest levels of dependency and were identified as parameters most affected by changes within the system.
Today, with the availability of advanced information tools, the preparation of hazard hotspot maps and their physical demarcation on the ground can significantly reduce irreversible losses caused by environmental hazards. Among the most important tools in natural hazard management is the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which enable the identification of hazard-prone and vulnerable areas, the simulation of hazards such as earthquakes, and the location of safe areas for emergency sheltering. Collectively, these measures play a vital role in enhancing the resilience of human settlements.
Since improving urban resilience to environmental hazards represents the most effective and sustainable strategy for reducing the impacts of such hazards, identifying the factors that contribute to enhancing community resilience becomes a critical priority. Iranian cities, particularly Ilam City, are among those that face high levels of potential vulnerability to environmental hazards. Accordingly, in addition to conventional crisis management approaches, a resilience-oriented perspective must be adopted to achieve more effective management and mitigation of existing risks and damages. Given that resilience enhancement is influenced by multiple and interrelated factors, the application of a futures studies approach becomes essential. The limited effectiveness of traditional crisis management methods in reducing human and financial losses caused by environmental hazards further underscores the necessity of futures-oriented approaches, which enable anticipation of future conditions and the identification of factors contributing to the resilience of communities and settlements.
From a futures studies perspective, social participation and increased citizen involvement in urban decision-making processes play a fundamental role in identifying and transforming key resilience factors, envisioning alternative futures, and shaping desirable future conditions in contexts of crisis and instability. Such participation constitutes a core source of credibility, validity, and reliability for the data obtained. One of the essential requirements for planning and implementing resilient cities in the face of urban crises, such as earthquakes and floods is the systematic collection of demographic and social data to allocate health, social, and psychological support to affected populations, along with the continuous generation of real-time data on residents’ health status and social and behavioral characteristics during emergencies.
In practice, social support policies in times of crisis have become one of the most effective strategies for coping with disasters and their consequences. Several studies highlight the positive impact of these approaches on enhancing resilience and improving the responsiveness of local communities to crises and external stresses. Such research emphasizes that the success of resilience-oriented programs depends largely on effective planning, adequate allocation of financial resources, provision of social and physical infrastructure, and active citizen participation an approach that has rapidly gained traction in countries confronting both local and global crises
Conclusion
The results of the spatial analysis of the physical resilience of Ilam’s urban fabric indicate that 68.28% of the city’s physical area is vulnerable to earthquakes and requires targeted planning interventions. The analysis of influencing and influenced factors across the dimensions of physical resilience suggests that achieving a resilient city of Ilam necessitates primary attention to influencing factors, particularly subsoil conditions, open spaces, and permeability. In the second stage, emphasis should be placed on population density, structural strength and resistance, residential density, accessibility, and incompatible land uses.
Acknowledgments: The authors report no acknowledgments.
Ethical Approvals: The authors report no ethical approvals.
Conflict of Interest: This article is derived from the doctoral dissertation of Hamdollah Lotfi.
Authors’ Contributions: Lotfi H (first author), Main Researcher (34%); Noori Kermani A (second author), Methodologist (34%); Ziari K (third author), Data Analyst (32%)
Funding: The authors report no funding.
Today, the issue of resilience in human settlements is considered one of the most important areas of study worldwide [Jabareen, 2013]. The resilience of urban systems, as the most advanced form of human settlements, has significant impacts on the environment. Consequently, enhancing sustainability and resilience in cities and human settlements has become a priority, which underscores the importance of urban resilience studies and methods for its assessment in cities [Gharei et al., 2017]. In this regard, the persistent presence of threats such as climate change, disease outbreaks, environmental disasters, and natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes and floods) has increasingly drawn public attention to the concept of resilience in settlements. Moreover, particular emphasis on resilience has grown among scholars and policymakers [Seeliger & Turok, 2013; Ingalls & Stedman, 2016]. Among these threats, environmental hazards have attracted greater attention due to their potential to trigger larger and more prolonged crises [Jabareen, 2013; Vale et al., 2014].
In many countries, especially developing ones, rapid population growth combined with slow development, along with infrastructural and physical disorder, has intensified urban problems and raised the issue of resilient urban settlements [Spaans & Waterhout, 2017; Zhang et al., 2019]. Resilience is defined as the capacity of a system, community, or society affected by hazards to resist, absorb, adapt to, and recover in a timely manner from the impacts of hazards, serving as an effective approach for protecting and restoring the essential functions and structures of society [Gasparini et al., 2014]. Today, analyzing and enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerability to natural hazards have become major and extensive fields within disaster planning and management [Ghadiri et al., 2012].
Cutter proposed a place-based model for assessing hazard resilience. In this perspective, resilience is a measure that reflects the flexibility of geographic space in the face of potential hazards, and different locations exhibit varying levels of resilience depending on their spatial position. This place-based approach is particularly important among geographers for understanding resilience. In this model, the inherent vulnerability and resilience of a place are examined, and the shared dimensions influencing both vulnerability and resilience are identified [Kalantari Khalilabad et al., 2007]. Based on this perspective, hazard mitigation programs should focus on creating and strengthening the characteristics of resilient communities and incorporate the concept of resilience throughout the disaster management cycle [Cutter et al., 2008].
In essence, resilience represents a form of foresight due to the dynamic nature of societal responses to hazards, and it contributes to expanding policy options for coping with uncertainty and change. In this way, increasing disaster resilience can lead to sustainable livelihoods by enhancing adaptive capacity within society [Godschalk, 2003; Tompkins & Adger, 2004; Manyena, 2006]. Futures studies approaches in planning emphasize identifying key factors and driving forces of development within the planning environment so that planners, by possessing tools for controlling and managing the future, can design a desirable future architecture [Beheshti & Zali, 2011].
One of the major challenges faced by most human settlements, particularly large cities worldwide, is natural hazards [Alexander, 2011; Pourahmad et al., 2018]. Given that Iran ranks among the 11 most disaster-prone countries in the world and that earthquakes account for the highest number of human casualties [Ahad Nejad Roshti et al., 2015], it can be stated that most Iranian cities are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazards. Ilam City is no exception and, like many cities in the country, is in a vulnerable condition. In addition to having a history of earthquakes, Ilam suffers from physical deterioration and problematic or low-quality urban fabrics within its urban space [Abdali & Rajaei, 2020]. Earthquakes, as a major threat, are closely linked to societal development, and despite improvements in community capacities in hazard management and technology, the risks associated with earthquakes have continued to increase [Maleki et al., 2018]. The consequences of earthquakes, both in terms of frequency and severity, significantly affect societies [Faraji et al., 2017]. Therefore, it is essential to adopt measures to reduce the impacts of such disasters. Ilam City is located within the major seismic zone of western Iran and faces relatively high seismic risk. Nevertheless, according to existing records and statistics over recent decades, the city has remained distant from major seismic epicenters, and earthquakes in neighboring regions or their aftershocks have not caused significant financial or human losses in this area [Mavedat et al., 2020].
Although earthquakes are natural phenomena, they can be highly destructive; however, urban planning and management can play an effective role in reducing earthquake-related damages. Today, hazard analysis is considered a fundamental requirement in planning in general and urban planning in particular [Maleki et al., 2017]. Numerous studies have addressed environmental hazards and settlement resilience. One study indicated that the most important infrastructure for enhancing urban resilience lies in emphasizing knowledge-based approaches and integrated, knowledge-driven management aligned with institutional interaction and civil society participation [Huck & Monstad, 2019]. Another study demonstrated that achieving sustainable urban resilience results from the flexibility of governance systems and continuous adaptation in line with changes in urban structure and contemporary scientific advancements [Shamsuddin, 2020]. Using seismic vulnerability analysis combined with AHP and GIS, the vulnerability of District 10 of Tehran was assessed based on indicators such as construction materials, building age, population density, and transportation networks [Hataminejad et al., 2007]. In another study, the resilience of Ardabil City to environmental hazards was assessed, and a resilient city model was proposed using a futures studies approach [Mohammadi & Pashazadeh, 2017]. The findings indicated that the most influential dimension affecting Ardabil’s resilience was the physical–managerial dimension, highlighting the urgent need to upgrade infrastructure and establish integrated and systemic management to achieve a resilient city.
Since resilience represents a novel approach to coping with natural disasters and guiding policy frameworks, it requires addressing philosophical (ontological) questions, as ambiguity still surrounds this concept. To enhance resilience, it is first necessary to develop a fundamental understanding of what resilience is, the factors influencing it, and how it can be measured.
Mahmoudzadeh et al. have evaluated the residential fabric of Ilam City from an earthquake crisis management perspective and found that approximately 67.9% of the residential area is vulnerable based on the applied indicators [Mahmoudzadeh et al., 2017]. Mavedat et al. have estimated the spatial distribution of urban resilience from an earthquake crisis perspective using a spatial statistics model (case study: Ilam City) and reported that less than 1% resilience exists in Ilam City [Mavedat et al., 2020]. Another study analyzes the spatial distribution of environmental hazards and ecological crises in Iran, revealing that environmental degradation has increased at an unprecedented rate over recent decades, to the extent that Iran leads many other countries in this regard [Kaviani Rad et al., 2010].
Despite the high population density of Ilam City, no study has yet addressed resilience from a futures studies perspective. Therefore, this article analyzes the spatial resilience of physical indicators within the residential fabric of Ilam City and subsequently identifies the key driving forces of Ilam’s physical resilience to earthquakes through expert consultation and the application of MICMAC software
Methodology
The present descriptive–analytical study was conducted during 2020–2021 in Ilam City. Ilam, the capital of Ilam Province, is geographically located at 33°38′ north latitude and 46°26′ east longitude.
To achieve the research objectives, resilience indicators and resilience levels were identified through a systematic and documentary review of relevant studies. The most important indicators were selected and finalized using a Delphi node and extracted in a researcher-made framework. These indicators included five parameters: building structural system, construction material type, number of floors, parcel grain (urban block size), and building age.
For the spatial analysis of physical resilience components of the residential fabric of Ilam City, the five selected indicators were first classified based on the 2019 statistical blocks provided by the Statistical Center of Iran and the existing land-use layer of Ilam City from 2017. Subsequently, quantitative and qualitative comparisons and classifications were carried out using spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.4.1 (2016). AutoCAD 2013 was employed to generate appropriate visual outputs and maps.
To identify spatial patterns and trends, resilience indicators in Ilam City were analyzed using regression tools available in GeoDa 1.20.0.8 (2021) and ArcGIS 10.4.1 (2016). To determine the spatial distribution pattern of physical resilience in the residential fabric (clustered, random, or dispersed), Moran’s I statistic was applied within the ArcGIS environment. This spatial autocorrelation tool produces five values: Moran’s Index, expected index value, Z-score, and P-value, which are interpreted using a bell-shaped curve within a fluctuation range of −2.5 to +2.5.
Given that there is no strict rule regarding the selection method or number of experts and that expert sample size depends on factors such as sample homogeneity or heterogeneity, research objectives, problem scale, decision quality, the research team’s capacity to manage the study, internal and external validity, data collection time, available resources, scope of the issue, and response acceptance the number of participants is typically fewer than 50, most commonly between 15 and 20, and in homogeneous groups usually between 10 and 15. Accordingly, the statistical sample consisted of 44 experts selected through purposive non-random sampling using the convenience method. Participants included university faculty members, executive and administrative experts from Ilam City, and specialists in the fields of resilience and futures studies, based on the following criteria:
Expert selection criteria:
- Publications related to resilience and futures studies (3 points)
- Number of authored or translated books or review articles related to the field (4 points)
- Number of approved and completed research or scientific projects in the relevant field (4 points)
- Experience of cooperation or membership in relevant councils, associations, institutions, organizations, or professional groups (2 points)
- Specialized executive experience (4 points)
- Research experts in the field (10 individuals)
- Executive experts (15 individuals)
- University faculty members (11 individuals)
- Graduate students (8 individuals)
In the final phase of the research, an in-depth review of the literature and theoretical foundations, along with a synthesis of the findings from the first phase, led to the identification, exploration, and extraction of influential components and criteria. To determine the level of consensus among subject-matter and local experts regarding each factor and its relative importance, the criteria were reduced based on their significance. Accordingly, a Delphi questionnaire was distributed among experts and specialists.
The finalized indicators were analyzed using a futures studies approach based on exploratory structural analysis with the MICMAC software (MICMAC 6.1.2, 2004). The Delphi group was asked to assign scores ranging from 0 to 3 to each driving force based on their direct and indirect influence–dependence relationships (pairwise comparison). A score of 0 indicated no influence, 1 low or negligible influence, 2 moderate influence, 3 high influence, and the letter “P” denoted potential influence. This expert-based cross-impact analysis method produces quantitative results and is founded on impact matrices aimed at assessing the stability or instability of the system under study
Findings
The majority of respondents were male, aged between 20 and 30 years, held doctoral degrees, and had between 1 and 5 years of executive experience.
To determine the status of resilience indicators in Ilam City, the type, area, and proportional share of each indicator were extracted and analyzed. For spatial analysis of the resilience indicators, following the identification of existing conditions, the indicators were classified based on their level of resilience and represented as vector layers using a color spectrum. Analysis of building structural systems indicated that 38% of buildings lacked a structural frame, 24% had steel frames, and 37% had reinforced concrete frames. The presence of high-rise buildings during crises, particularly when combined with unstable construction materials and non-resistant structural systems, can significantly increase casualties and damages. Construction material type and composition constitute critical factors in mitigating potential crises, including natural hazards such as earthquakes. Building age and lifespan also represent key factors and serve as indicators of structural deterioration; as buildings age and become more deteriorated, their resilience to crises decreases while potential damage increases.
Trend analysis in the classification of physical resilience indicators within Ilam’s urban fabric revealed that building structural system, construction material type, and building age exhibited the highest coefficients among influencing factors.
The calculated Global Moran’s I value indicated positive spatial autocorrelation, reflecting a clustered spatial pattern. Based on the Z-score, the probability that such a clustered pattern occurred randomly was less than 5%, confirming the statistical significance of spatial clustering.
Following the assessment of existing conditions, pattern detection, and identification of resilience indicator status in Ilam’s urban fabric, residential land uses were selected and differentiated using hotspot analysis based on parcel size, permeability, and accessibility. The physical resilience of Ilam City was classified into seven categories, among which the completely non-resilient condition accounted for both the highest percentage and the largest spatial extent.
Regression analysis of the physical urban fabric demonstrated that the indicators of building structural system, construction material type, and building age had the strongest explanatory power in determining physical resilience, whereas indicators such as number of floors and parcel grain size showed weaker but still significant effects.
After experts evaluated the degree of influence and dependency among the identified parameters, these relationships were incorporated into a cross-impact analysis matrix. Eight strategic parameters contributing to the physical structure of Ilam City were classified and analyzed. Two types of relationships, direct and indirect were considered, with direct classification applied through a cross-impact matrix to identify and evaluate all direct influences among parameters. Pairwise comparisons were conducted to assess the strength of relationships between parameters.
In line with the futures-oriented approach of the study, the eight parameters were identified through a review of relevant literature and interviews with academic experts and specialists. In the final stage, the selected parameters were organized into an 8×8 cross-impact matrix. Structural analysis validation was conducted using expert panels, and following data collection, the MICMAC technique and cross-impact analysis were applied. The matrix filling rate reached 75%, indicating that 75% of the parameters influenced one another. Overall, among the 64 matrix-based relationships, 25% showed no relationship, 6.25% exhibited weak relationships, 21.88% showed moderate relationships, and 46.87% demonstrated strong relationships. No potential relationships were identified.
The objective of the futures-oriented analysis of physical resilience in Ilam’s residential fabric was to identify key driving forces of resilience based on the cross-impact matrix of direct influences. The results indicated that ground conditions, open spaces, and permeability play a critical role in improving the resilience relationships within Ilam’s physical urban fabric. These three parameters exerted the greatest influence on the system and were therefore identified as key system drivers. Conversely, parameters such as population density, structural strength and stability, residential density, accessibility, and incompatible land uses exhibited the highest levels of dependency, indicating that they are most affected by changes within the system.
Parameters positioned in the northeast quadrant of the influence–dependence map were identified as strategic parameters due to their high levels of direct influence. Strategic parameters typically exhibit strong influence and, in many cases, high dependency. Identifying such parameters is essential in futures studies, as they play a decisive role in shaping system dynamics. Accordingly, three parameters, open space, ground conditions, and permeability, were identified as strategic drivers of physical resilience in Ilam’s residential fabric. These parameters represent the most influential components within the system, and the future resilience roadmap of Ilam’s physical urban structure largely depends on them. Furthermore, the spatial structure of direct drivers within the physical resilience roadmap demonstrated a full range of relationship types, confirming that ground conditions, open spaces, and permeability constitute the most significant indicators shaping the spatial framework of physical resilience in Ilam City
Discussion
The present study aimed to conduct a spatial analysis of the physical resilience components of Ilam City against earthquakes using a futures studies approach. Following the extraction of physical resilience indicators of Ilam’s urban fabric, the findings revealed that key influencing factors, namely building structural systems, construction material type, and building age, accounted for the highest coefficients among the resilience indicators. The results indicate that Ilam City is not in a favorable condition in terms of earthquake resilience. These findings are consistent with previous studies conducted by Mahmoudzadeh et al., Mavedat et al., and Abdali and Rajaei [Mahmoudzadeh et al., 2017; Mavedat et al., 2020; Abdali & Rajaei, 2020].
In the present research, eight parameters were identified as key factors within the futures studies framework. Among them, ground conditions, open spaces, and permeability play a critical role in improving the resilience relationships of Ilam’s physical urban fabric. In fact, these three parameters exert the greatest influence on the system and were therefore identified as key system parameters. Conversely, population density, structural strength and stability, residential density, accessibility, and incompatible land uses exhibited the highest levels of dependency and were identified as parameters most affected by changes within the system.
Today, with the availability of advanced information tools, the preparation of hazard hotspot maps and their physical demarcation on the ground can significantly reduce irreversible losses caused by environmental hazards. Among the most important tools in natural hazard management is the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which enable the identification of hazard-prone and vulnerable areas, the simulation of hazards such as earthquakes, and the location of safe areas for emergency sheltering. Collectively, these measures play a vital role in enhancing the resilience of human settlements.
Since improving urban resilience to environmental hazards represents the most effective and sustainable strategy for reducing the impacts of such hazards, identifying the factors that contribute to enhancing community resilience becomes a critical priority. Iranian cities, particularly Ilam City, are among those that face high levels of potential vulnerability to environmental hazards. Accordingly, in addition to conventional crisis management approaches, a resilience-oriented perspective must be adopted to achieve more effective management and mitigation of existing risks and damages. Given that resilience enhancement is influenced by multiple and interrelated factors, the application of a futures studies approach becomes essential. The limited effectiveness of traditional crisis management methods in reducing human and financial losses caused by environmental hazards further underscores the necessity of futures-oriented approaches, which enable anticipation of future conditions and the identification of factors contributing to the resilience of communities and settlements.
From a futures studies perspective, social participation and increased citizen involvement in urban decision-making processes play a fundamental role in identifying and transforming key resilience factors, envisioning alternative futures, and shaping desirable future conditions in contexts of crisis and instability. Such participation constitutes a core source of credibility, validity, and reliability for the data obtained. One of the essential requirements for planning and implementing resilient cities in the face of urban crises, such as earthquakes and floods is the systematic collection of demographic and social data to allocate health, social, and psychological support to affected populations, along with the continuous generation of real-time data on residents’ health status and social and behavioral characteristics during emergencies.
In practice, social support policies in times of crisis have become one of the most effective strategies for coping with disasters and their consequences. Several studies highlight the positive impact of these approaches on enhancing resilience and improving the responsiveness of local communities to crises and external stresses. Such research emphasizes that the success of resilience-oriented programs depends largely on effective planning, adequate allocation of financial resources, provision of social and physical infrastructure, and active citizen participation an approach that has rapidly gained traction in countries confronting both local and global crises
Conclusion
The results of the spatial analysis of the physical resilience of Ilam’s urban fabric indicate that 68.28% of the city’s physical area is vulnerable to earthquakes and requires targeted planning interventions. The analysis of influencing and influenced factors across the dimensions of physical resilience suggests that achieving a resilient city of Ilam necessitates primary attention to influencing factors, particularly subsoil conditions, open spaces, and permeability. In the second stage, emphasis should be placed on population density, structural strength and resistance, residential density, accessibility, and incompatible land uses.
Acknowledgments: The authors report no acknowledgments.
Ethical Approvals: The authors report no ethical approvals.
Conflict of Interest: This article is derived from the doctoral dissertation of Hamdollah Lotfi.
Authors’ Contributions: Lotfi H (first author), Main Researcher (34%); Noori Kermani A (second author), Methodologist (34%); Ziari K (third author), Data Analyst (32%)
Funding: The authors report no funding.
Keywords:
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