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Volume 37, Issue 1 (2022)
GeoRes 2022, 37(1): 111-125 |
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Received: 2021/05/8 | Accepted: 2021/11/16 | Published: 2022/01/22
Received: 2021/05/8 | Accepted: 2021/11/16 | Published: 2022/01/22
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Mahmoudzadeh H, Aghayari Hir T, Hatami D. Study and Analysis of the Elderly Population of the Iran. GeoRes 2022; 37 (1) :111-125
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1- Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning & Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2- Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2- Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
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Introduction
Population ageing is a phenomenon that has affected, and continues to affect, the vast majority of countries worldwide, including Iran [Sobczak et al., 2020]. In today’s world, where populations are rapidly ageing, issues related to ageing have gained considerable attention and importance. A so-called “silent revolution,” driven by declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, has occurred globally. Compared with developed countries, population ageing in developing countries often emerges at lower levels of economic development, and societies are generally less prepared to cope with its rapid and extensive expansion [Guan et al., 2020]. Population ageing refers to a stage in which elderly individuals constitute an increasing proportion of the total population [Naib Habib, 2012]. Over the past five decades, socioeconomic development, declining fertility, and rising life expectancy have led to substantial changes in the global population structure, shifting age compositions from younger to older cohorts. At present, the growth rate of the elderly population exceeds that of the total global population. The importance of this issue has prompted numerous initiatives by the United Nations and governments worldwide aimed at addressing the conditions of older adults [Mirfallah, 2007].
Iran is not exempt from this global trend. The proportion of individuals aged 65 years and over in Iran has been steadily increasing. According to population censuses conducted in 1986, 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2016, the percentage of the population aged 65 years and above was 3.1%, 4.4%, 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.1%, respectively [amar.org.ir, 2020], and this figure continues to rise.
Over the past three decades, researchers have examined population ageing from demographic, sociological, economic, psychological, and other perspectives. At the macro level, studies have focused on the economic and social impacts of ageing [Guan et al., 2020]. One of the most prominent characteristics of population ageing is its regional nature; consequently, geographical studies addressing spatial disparities both interregional and intraregional have expanded. Research on interregional differences has been conducted at international, national, and subnational levels [Guan et al., 2020]. To analyze regional disparities and the characteristics of ageing dynamics, many scholars have carried out comparative studies at the provincial scale and from the perspective of urban settlements [Shan & Ding, 2013; Wang & Li, 2017]. Furthermore, clear contrasts between ageing conditions in urban and rural areas have been documented across different countries over historical periods [Cheng et al., 2019; Walford & Kurek, 2008]. Studies of interregional differences have shown that the concentration of elderly individuals within cities is higher than in suburban areas [Smith & Hiltner, 1975]. Some research has analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and development trends of ageing at the county level and across multiple spatial scales [Lin & Ma, 2007; Zhang & Chen, 2014; Liu et al., 2016]. Other scholars have extended their analyses to the city and street levels in order to investigate fine-scale spatial differences in ageing [Yuan et al., 2017; Zhou et al., 2018]. In recent years, studies on the spatiotemporal evolution of ageing at micro-spatial scales have increased.
Some studies have examined demographic trends of the elderly population, predicted the level and proportion of ageing in society, and primarily focused on the economic dimensions of the issue. It should be noted that scholars in geography and urban planning have paid relatively limited attention to this topic, and only a small number of theses and journal articles have addressed it. Existing studies have either examined the social conditions of the elderly or focused on the physical and spatial aspects of ageing [Mirfallah Nasiri, 2017; Faraji Sabkbar et al., 2019; Shams Ghahfarkhi, 2019; Nikpour & Hassan Alizadeh, 2020]. In Western countries and Southeast Asia, declining marriage rates, increased life expectancy, and reduced fertility have resulted in a higher proportion of elderly populations compared with Iran, and these regions are also more advanced in terms of urban planning. Consequently, greater attention has been devoted to ageing-related issues. Reviews of studies conducted in these regions indicate that as the elderly population has increased, scholarly and policy attention to ageing has intensified annually. Research has addressed topics such as age-friendly housing, pedestrian environments, transportation systems, climate suitability, insurance and economic security, socio-cultural indicators, physical indicators of elderly-friendly living environments, and the spatial distribution of elderly populations at national, regional, provincial, and urban scales.
For example, some researchers have predicted ageing trends and analyzed corresponding policy responses [Bijak et al., 2008; Edmonston, 2007; Lee & Mason, 2010; Li, 2016]. At the micro level, previous studies have focused on social retirement [Blazer, 1982; Krause, 1987], psychological demands of the elderly [Valdez-Torres & Waite, 2019; Warner & Adams, 2016], and their behaviors and activities [Horner et al., 2015; Rosenbloom, 2001; Schwanen & Paez, 2010]. More recently, housing, ageing support systems, and healthcare-related issues have also attracted scholarly attention [Golant, 2016; Yang et al., 2010; Mark & Cheng, 2015]. Some researchers have found that the elderly population in the United States is concentrated in inner-city areas and remote rural regions, forming so-called “retirement centers” [Cowgill, 1978; Flynn, 1980; Steinfeld & Golant, 1985]. Similar investigations have also been conducted in China [Bai & Lei, 2020; Guan et al., 2020].
Given the fundamental demographic processes currently occurring in Iran namely increasing life expectancy, declining fertility, and shifts in the population pyramid toward ageing the provision, maintenance, and enhancement of well-being and security for this vulnerable group represent one of the country’s most significant challenges and should be addressed within social development planning. According to many social theorists, society is the product of interactive relations among individuals, and each member constitutes a form of social capital; impairment or neglect of any group threatens the sustainability of the entire society [Nemati & Agha Bakhshi, 2013]. Although the elderly population still represents a relatively small share of Iran’s total population, the ongoing age transition from youth toward ageing necessitates increased attention and careful consideration. Effective planning for the elderly requires awareness of their status based on various indicators and an understanding of their spatial distribution across the country. Policymakers, by recognizing the distribution patterns of the elderly population at different spatial levels, can develop more effective strategies to address ageing-related challenges [Nikpour & Hassan Alizadeh, 2020]. Therefore, understanding the dimensions of population ageing and its spatial (geographical) dynamics can contribute to more effective management and enable planners to allocate facilities and services for older adults in an appropriate and equitable manner.
As the concept of the age-friendly city is relatively new in Iran, limited research has been conducted in this field. Most existing studies have focused on medical and nursing aspects of ageing, emphasizing physical, psychological, emotional, and economic health dimensions. In contrast, the present study seeks to examine the status of population ageing in Iran, its spatial distribution, and the spatial patterns of ageing indicators across Iranian provinces. Accordingly, the main objective of this research is to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of the ageing index in Iran’s population and to determine whether the country’s geographical population structure can be classified as youthful, middle-aged, or aged
Methodology
The present study adopts a mixed-methods approach combining descriptive–analytical methods, documentary research, and secondary data analysis, and was conducted in 2021. To analyze and evaluate demographic indicators of the elderly population in Iran, data from the 2016 National Population and Housing Census were used, encompassing the entire elderly population (aged 65 years and over) in both urban and rural areas of the country.
To examine the status of the elderly population and the degree of population ageing across all provinces of Iran (31 provinces), several indicators were employed, including the ageing ratio, the United Nations three-stage population classification (youthful, adult, and aged population), total dependency ratio, elderly dependency ratio, gender composition of the elderly population, and the ageing coefficient (or ageing index). For this purpose, census data for 2016 were obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran, and the total urban and rural population of the country as well as the number of individuals aged 65 years and over were extracted. Subsequently, population data for the 31 provinces were disaggregated, and the size of the elderly population in each province was determined. At this stage, the level and percentage of population ageing for Iran as a whole and for each province were calculated and compared with national averages.
In the second stage, the proportion of the elderly population in Iran and in each of the 31 provinces, as identified in the previous stage, was compared with the United Nations three-stage classification. According to this classification, countries with an elderly population share below 4% are considered youthful, those with a share between 4% and 6% are classified as adult, and those with an elderly population share of 7% or more are regarded as aged societies [Seifisarai, 2018]. Accordingly, Iranian provinces were categorized into youthful, adult, and aged groups.
In the third stage, the population aged 0–14 years and the elderly population of Iran (urban and rural), as well as the corresponding figures for each of the 31 provinces, were extracted. Based on these data, the total dependency ratio was calculated for the country as a whole and separately for each province.
In the fourth stage, the ratio of individuals aged 65 years and over to the economically active population (aged 15–64 years) was determined for Iran overall and for each province. This allowed for the assessment of the elderly dependency ratio at both national and provincial levels.
In the fifth stage, data on the population aged 65 years and over in the 31 provinces were extracted by gender from the 2016 Statistical Yearbook. Using these data, the gender-specific ageing status of Iran was first determined, followed by an analysis of gender-specific ageing conditions in each province.
In the sixth stage, the ageing coefficient (or ageing index) was calculated for Iran as a whole and subsequently for each of the 31 provinces.
Finally, the results obtained from the calculated indicators were transferred to the ArcGIS 10.08 software environment for spatial analysis. Using this software, the spatial distribution and patterns of elderly population indicators across Iran were analyzed, and the results were presented in the form of thematic maps illustrating provincial elderly population levels, population status based on the United Nations classification, spatial distribution of total dependency ratios, comparisons between national and provincial dependency ratios, spatial distribution of elderly dependency ratios, comparisons of national and provincial elderly dependency ratios, gender-based ageing patterns, and the spatial distribution of the ageing coefficient across Iranian provinces
Findings
The total population aged 65 years and over in Iran amounted to 4,868,585 individuals (2,403,898 men and 2,464,687 women), indicating that the number of elderly women exceeded that of elderly men nationwide.
The average proportion of the elderly population in Iran was 6.1%. In 17 provinces, the share of the elderly population was below the national average, reflecting a relatively younger population structure compared to other provinces. In the provinces of Fars and Kurdistan, the proportion of the elderly population (6.1%) was equal to the national average, placing these provinces in the second rank in terms of youthfulness after the first 17 provinces. A total of 12 provinces were in the ageing stage; among them, Gilan was identified as the oldest province, while Sistan and Baluchestan was the youngest province in Iran.
Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan were classified as youthful provinces. Twenty-three provinces, South Khorasan, Tehran, Zanjan, Semnan, Kermanshah, Ardabil, Fars, Kurdistan, Qazvin, Lorestan, Yazd, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Razavi Khorasan, West Azerbaijan, Alborz, Ilam, North Khorasan, Kerman, Golestan, Qom, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Khuzestan, and Bushehr, were categorized as adult provinces. It is noteworthy that among these 23 adult provinces, eight provinces, South Khorasan, Tehran, Zanjan, Semnan, Kermanshah, Ardabil, Fars, and Kurdistan had elderly population shares exceeding 6% and are therefore expected to transition into the aged category in the near future. In particular, South Khorasan, Tehran, Zanjan, Semnan, Kermanshah, and Ardabil are likely to reach this stage sooner than the remaining provinces. In contrast, six provinces including Gilan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Hamedan, East Azerbaijan, and Isfahan were identified as aged provinces.
The total dependency ratio in Iran was 43.06. Among the 31 provinces, Gilan recorded the lowest dependency ratio at 36.43, whereas Sistan and Baluchestan exhibited the highest dependency ratio at 70.94.
The elderly dependency ratio at the national level was 8.73. Gilan had the highest elderly dependency ratio, while Sistan and Baluchestan had the lowest among the 31 provinces.
An examination of gender-specific ageing patterns across provinces revealed that, out of 31 provinces, seven exhibited male-dominated ageing, whereas 24 provinces experienced female-dominated ageing.
According to the 2016 census, the ageing coefficient for Iran as a whole was 25.42, indicating that, on average, the population structure of the country falls within the adult stage. However, this indicator varied considerably across provinces, such that it reflected a youthful population structure in Sistan and Baluchestan and an aged population structure in Gilan
Discussion
Over the past five decades, economic and social development, declining fertility rates, the consequent reduction in population growth, and increasing life expectancy led to substantial changes in the global population structure, resulting in a significant rise in the number of older adults. Iran has not been exempt from this global phenomenon, and the proportion of individuals aged 65 years and over has been steadily increasing. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to examine and analyze the status of population ageing in Iran and to perform a spatial analysis of ageing indicators at the provincial level.
According to the 2016 National Population and Housing Census, the average proportion of the elderly population (urban and rural) in Iran was 6.1%. Among Iranian provinces, Sistan and Baluchestan, with 3.2%, was identified as the youngest province, as it has the lowest proportion of elderly individuals. In contrast, Gilan Province, with 9.8%, was the oldest province in the country. Overall, the spatial distribution of ageing in Iran indicated that the southern and southeastern provinces (Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan) had the lowest proportions of elderly individuals, while the central, northwestern, and particularly northern regions of the country contain the highest shares of the population aged 65 years and over.
A comparison of the findings of this part of the study with international research [Shan & Ding, 2013; Wang & Li, 2017; Li et al., 2017; Guan et al., 2020] and domestic studies [Faraji Sabkbar et al., 2018] shows considerable consistency. These studies similarly emphasize the spatial distribution of the elderly population, regional disparities in ageing, and variations in the proportion and size of elderly populations across different regions and provinces.
Based on the United Nations three-stage population classification, the spatial distribution of ageing across Iran reveals that the southern and southeastern provinces of Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan are classified as youthful; central provinces (Isfahan and Markazi), western provinces (Hamedan), and northern and northwestern provinces (Mazandaran, Gilan, and East Azerbaijan) are categorized as aged; and the majority of the country’s territory, comprising 23 provinces, falls within the adult category. Overall, this spatial pattern indicates that youthful provinces are concentrated in the south and southeast, aged provinces are mainly located in the central and especially northern regions, and most provinces are characterized by an adult population structure. The results of this section are consistent with the findings reported by Faraji Sabkbar et al. (2018) in terms of the indicators examined.
According to the 2016 census, the total dependency ratio in Iran was 43.06%. Among the provinces, Gilan recorded the lowest dependency ratio, while Sistan and Baluchestan exhibited the highest value. Spatially, total dependency ratios in the central, western, and particularly northern regions of Iran were lower than the national average, whereas peripheral provinces showed values higher than the national average. Since this indicator reflects the level of economic well-being and saving capacity of society, regions with lower dependency ratios experience less pressure on the working population to support dependents and generally enjoy better economic conditions and higher levels of welfare. Conversely, in peripheral regions where this ratio is high, economic conditions and welfare levels tend to decline, and greater pressure is placed on economically active individuals as primary income earners.
Based on the 2016 census data, the elderly dependency ratio for Iran as a whole was 8.73%, although this ratio varied considerably across provinces. Gilan recorded the highest elderly dependency ratio, while Sistan and Baluchestan had the lowest. The spatial distribution of elderly dependency ratios shows that central and especially northern regions have values higher than the national average, whereas peripheral regions exhibit lower-than-average ratios. Higher elderly dependency ratios in central and northern provinces indicate a gradual transition in the age structure of the population, with decreasing pressures related to meeting the needs of infants, children, and adolescents, and increasing pressures associated with meeting the needs of the elderly population. In contrast, lower elderly dependency ratios in peripheral regions lead to greater economic pressure on household heads to provide for the needs of younger dependents. Nikpour and Hassan Alizadeh (2020) similarly use total dependency and elderly dependency ratios in their spatial analysis of ageing indicators in urban and rural areas of Iran, and the results of their study are consistent with the findings of the present research.
Based on the 2016 census data and the results of this study, seven out of Iran’s 31 provinces exhibited male-dominated ageing (22.58%), while 24 provinces (77.42%) experience female-dominated ageing, indicating that population ageing in Iran is predominantly feminized. The spatial distribution of gender-specific ageing showed that South Khorasan, Ardabil, Alborz, Ilam, Kerman, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, and Sistan and Baluchestan are characterized by male-dominated ageing. In general, male-dominated ageing was concentrated in the eastern and southeastern regions of the country and, to a lesser extent, in other peripheral and border provinces. In contrast, the remaining 24 provinces including northern, central, southern and southwestern (except Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad), eastern (except South Khorasan), western (except Ilam), and northwestern regions (except Ardabil) are characterized by female-dominated ageing. Overall, peripheral provinces tend to experience male-dominated ageing, while central and northern provinces predominantly exhibit female-dominated ageing. These findings are consistent with the results reported by Naib Habib (2012) regarding the feminization of ageing in Iran.
Based on the 2016 census data and the findings of the present study, the ageing coefficient (or ageing index) for Iran as a whole was 25.42. According to the classification proposed by Shryock and Siegel, populations with fewer than 15 elderly individuals per 100 children are considered youthful, those with values between 15 and 30 are classified as middle-aged, and those with values of 30 or more are regarded as aged. Accordingly, the overall population structure of Iran can be classified as middle-aged. This value reflected increased life expectancy and a decline in the population under 15 years of age due to fertility control policies implemented in Iran. However, this indicator varied substantially across provinces. In Sistan and Baluchestan, the ageing coefficient was 8.35, indicating a youthful population and identifying it as the youngest province in the country. In contrast, Gilan recorded a value of 50, reflecting a critically aged population. Among Iran’s 31 provinces, two were classified as youthful, 20 as middle-aged, and nine as aged. Spatially, the southern and southeastern provinces (Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan) were youthful; central provinces (except Qom), East Azerbaijan, and especially northern provinces were aged; and the remaining provinces, covering much of eastern, southern, southwestern, western, and northwestern Iran were classified as middle-aged.
Conclusion
The results of this study indicate that the majority of Iran’s population currently falls within the adult category, while a significant and growing proportion has entered old age. Overall, Iran has passed its youthful demographic stage and is experiencing a gradual but accelerating transition toward middle age and population ageing. This process is occurring at different rates across various regions of the country.
The increasing trend of the ageing index suggests that a demographic ageing crisis in Iran is not far from realization and should be regarded as one of the most critical challenges facing the national development planning system, with far-reaching implications across all sectors. Therefore, it is essential for Iranian policymakers and relevant authorities to adopt comprehensive and prioritized planning strategies, beginning with northern provinces, followed by central regions, then other border provinces, and finally younger provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan. These strategies should aim to create favorable conditions that promote the health, well-being, and quality of life of the elderly population, enabling them to experience this stage of life in good health and comfort.
At the same time, comprehensive fertility-related policies are necessary, including measures to facilitate and encourage marriage among young people, provide appropriate incentives and support to increase childbearing, and strengthen social and economic support systems for parents and children.
Acknowledgments: No acknowledgments were declared by the author(s).
Ethical Permission: No ethical approval was declared by the author(s).
Conflict of Interest: This article is derived from the doctoral dissertation of the third author in the field of Geography and Urban Planning, conducted under the supervision of the first author and with the advisory support of the second author in the Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tabriz.
Authors’ Contributions: Mahmoudzadeh H (First Author), Methodologist/Discussion Writer (30%); Aghayari Hir T (Second Author), Research Assistant/Introduction Writer (30%); Hatami D (Third Author), Data analyst/Principal Researcher (40%)
Funding: This research was financially supported by the Research Administration of the University of Tabriz
Population ageing is a phenomenon that has affected, and continues to affect, the vast majority of countries worldwide, including Iran [Sobczak et al., 2020]. In today’s world, where populations are rapidly ageing, issues related to ageing have gained considerable attention and importance. A so-called “silent revolution,” driven by declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, has occurred globally. Compared with developed countries, population ageing in developing countries often emerges at lower levels of economic development, and societies are generally less prepared to cope with its rapid and extensive expansion [Guan et al., 2020]. Population ageing refers to a stage in which elderly individuals constitute an increasing proportion of the total population [Naib Habib, 2012]. Over the past five decades, socioeconomic development, declining fertility, and rising life expectancy have led to substantial changes in the global population structure, shifting age compositions from younger to older cohorts. At present, the growth rate of the elderly population exceeds that of the total global population. The importance of this issue has prompted numerous initiatives by the United Nations and governments worldwide aimed at addressing the conditions of older adults [Mirfallah, 2007].
Iran is not exempt from this global trend. The proportion of individuals aged 65 years and over in Iran has been steadily increasing. According to population censuses conducted in 1986, 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2016, the percentage of the population aged 65 years and above was 3.1%, 4.4%, 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.1%, respectively [amar.org.ir, 2020], and this figure continues to rise.
Over the past three decades, researchers have examined population ageing from demographic, sociological, economic, psychological, and other perspectives. At the macro level, studies have focused on the economic and social impacts of ageing [Guan et al., 2020]. One of the most prominent characteristics of population ageing is its regional nature; consequently, geographical studies addressing spatial disparities both interregional and intraregional have expanded. Research on interregional differences has been conducted at international, national, and subnational levels [Guan et al., 2020]. To analyze regional disparities and the characteristics of ageing dynamics, many scholars have carried out comparative studies at the provincial scale and from the perspective of urban settlements [Shan & Ding, 2013; Wang & Li, 2017]. Furthermore, clear contrasts between ageing conditions in urban and rural areas have been documented across different countries over historical periods [Cheng et al., 2019; Walford & Kurek, 2008]. Studies of interregional differences have shown that the concentration of elderly individuals within cities is higher than in suburban areas [Smith & Hiltner, 1975]. Some research has analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and development trends of ageing at the county level and across multiple spatial scales [Lin & Ma, 2007; Zhang & Chen, 2014; Liu et al., 2016]. Other scholars have extended their analyses to the city and street levels in order to investigate fine-scale spatial differences in ageing [Yuan et al., 2017; Zhou et al., 2018]. In recent years, studies on the spatiotemporal evolution of ageing at micro-spatial scales have increased.
Some studies have examined demographic trends of the elderly population, predicted the level and proportion of ageing in society, and primarily focused on the economic dimensions of the issue. It should be noted that scholars in geography and urban planning have paid relatively limited attention to this topic, and only a small number of theses and journal articles have addressed it. Existing studies have either examined the social conditions of the elderly or focused on the physical and spatial aspects of ageing [Mirfallah Nasiri, 2017; Faraji Sabkbar et al., 2019; Shams Ghahfarkhi, 2019; Nikpour & Hassan Alizadeh, 2020]. In Western countries and Southeast Asia, declining marriage rates, increased life expectancy, and reduced fertility have resulted in a higher proportion of elderly populations compared with Iran, and these regions are also more advanced in terms of urban planning. Consequently, greater attention has been devoted to ageing-related issues. Reviews of studies conducted in these regions indicate that as the elderly population has increased, scholarly and policy attention to ageing has intensified annually. Research has addressed topics such as age-friendly housing, pedestrian environments, transportation systems, climate suitability, insurance and economic security, socio-cultural indicators, physical indicators of elderly-friendly living environments, and the spatial distribution of elderly populations at national, regional, provincial, and urban scales.
For example, some researchers have predicted ageing trends and analyzed corresponding policy responses [Bijak et al., 2008; Edmonston, 2007; Lee & Mason, 2010; Li, 2016]. At the micro level, previous studies have focused on social retirement [Blazer, 1982; Krause, 1987], psychological demands of the elderly [Valdez-Torres & Waite, 2019; Warner & Adams, 2016], and their behaviors and activities [Horner et al., 2015; Rosenbloom, 2001; Schwanen & Paez, 2010]. More recently, housing, ageing support systems, and healthcare-related issues have also attracted scholarly attention [Golant, 2016; Yang et al., 2010; Mark & Cheng, 2015]. Some researchers have found that the elderly population in the United States is concentrated in inner-city areas and remote rural regions, forming so-called “retirement centers” [Cowgill, 1978; Flynn, 1980; Steinfeld & Golant, 1985]. Similar investigations have also been conducted in China [Bai & Lei, 2020; Guan et al., 2020].
Given the fundamental demographic processes currently occurring in Iran namely increasing life expectancy, declining fertility, and shifts in the population pyramid toward ageing the provision, maintenance, and enhancement of well-being and security for this vulnerable group represent one of the country’s most significant challenges and should be addressed within social development planning. According to many social theorists, society is the product of interactive relations among individuals, and each member constitutes a form of social capital; impairment or neglect of any group threatens the sustainability of the entire society [Nemati & Agha Bakhshi, 2013]. Although the elderly population still represents a relatively small share of Iran’s total population, the ongoing age transition from youth toward ageing necessitates increased attention and careful consideration. Effective planning for the elderly requires awareness of their status based on various indicators and an understanding of their spatial distribution across the country. Policymakers, by recognizing the distribution patterns of the elderly population at different spatial levels, can develop more effective strategies to address ageing-related challenges [Nikpour & Hassan Alizadeh, 2020]. Therefore, understanding the dimensions of population ageing and its spatial (geographical) dynamics can contribute to more effective management and enable planners to allocate facilities and services for older adults in an appropriate and equitable manner.
As the concept of the age-friendly city is relatively new in Iran, limited research has been conducted in this field. Most existing studies have focused on medical and nursing aspects of ageing, emphasizing physical, psychological, emotional, and economic health dimensions. In contrast, the present study seeks to examine the status of population ageing in Iran, its spatial distribution, and the spatial patterns of ageing indicators across Iranian provinces. Accordingly, the main objective of this research is to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of the ageing index in Iran’s population and to determine whether the country’s geographical population structure can be classified as youthful, middle-aged, or aged
Methodology
The present study adopts a mixed-methods approach combining descriptive–analytical methods, documentary research, and secondary data analysis, and was conducted in 2021. To analyze and evaluate demographic indicators of the elderly population in Iran, data from the 2016 National Population and Housing Census were used, encompassing the entire elderly population (aged 65 years and over) in both urban and rural areas of the country.
To examine the status of the elderly population and the degree of population ageing across all provinces of Iran (31 provinces), several indicators were employed, including the ageing ratio, the United Nations three-stage population classification (youthful, adult, and aged population), total dependency ratio, elderly dependency ratio, gender composition of the elderly population, and the ageing coefficient (or ageing index). For this purpose, census data for 2016 were obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran, and the total urban and rural population of the country as well as the number of individuals aged 65 years and over were extracted. Subsequently, population data for the 31 provinces were disaggregated, and the size of the elderly population in each province was determined. At this stage, the level and percentage of population ageing for Iran as a whole and for each province were calculated and compared with national averages.
In the second stage, the proportion of the elderly population in Iran and in each of the 31 provinces, as identified in the previous stage, was compared with the United Nations three-stage classification. According to this classification, countries with an elderly population share below 4% are considered youthful, those with a share between 4% and 6% are classified as adult, and those with an elderly population share of 7% or more are regarded as aged societies [Seifisarai, 2018]. Accordingly, Iranian provinces were categorized into youthful, adult, and aged groups.
In the third stage, the population aged 0–14 years and the elderly population of Iran (urban and rural), as well as the corresponding figures for each of the 31 provinces, were extracted. Based on these data, the total dependency ratio was calculated for the country as a whole and separately for each province.
In the fourth stage, the ratio of individuals aged 65 years and over to the economically active population (aged 15–64 years) was determined for Iran overall and for each province. This allowed for the assessment of the elderly dependency ratio at both national and provincial levels.
In the fifth stage, data on the population aged 65 years and over in the 31 provinces were extracted by gender from the 2016 Statistical Yearbook. Using these data, the gender-specific ageing status of Iran was first determined, followed by an analysis of gender-specific ageing conditions in each province.
In the sixth stage, the ageing coefficient (or ageing index) was calculated for Iran as a whole and subsequently for each of the 31 provinces.
Finally, the results obtained from the calculated indicators were transferred to the ArcGIS 10.08 software environment for spatial analysis. Using this software, the spatial distribution and patterns of elderly population indicators across Iran were analyzed, and the results were presented in the form of thematic maps illustrating provincial elderly population levels, population status based on the United Nations classification, spatial distribution of total dependency ratios, comparisons between national and provincial dependency ratios, spatial distribution of elderly dependency ratios, comparisons of national and provincial elderly dependency ratios, gender-based ageing patterns, and the spatial distribution of the ageing coefficient across Iranian provinces
Findings
The total population aged 65 years and over in Iran amounted to 4,868,585 individuals (2,403,898 men and 2,464,687 women), indicating that the number of elderly women exceeded that of elderly men nationwide.
The average proportion of the elderly population in Iran was 6.1%. In 17 provinces, the share of the elderly population was below the national average, reflecting a relatively younger population structure compared to other provinces. In the provinces of Fars and Kurdistan, the proportion of the elderly population (6.1%) was equal to the national average, placing these provinces in the second rank in terms of youthfulness after the first 17 provinces. A total of 12 provinces were in the ageing stage; among them, Gilan was identified as the oldest province, while Sistan and Baluchestan was the youngest province in Iran.
Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan were classified as youthful provinces. Twenty-three provinces, South Khorasan, Tehran, Zanjan, Semnan, Kermanshah, Ardabil, Fars, Kurdistan, Qazvin, Lorestan, Yazd, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Razavi Khorasan, West Azerbaijan, Alborz, Ilam, North Khorasan, Kerman, Golestan, Qom, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Khuzestan, and Bushehr, were categorized as adult provinces. It is noteworthy that among these 23 adult provinces, eight provinces, South Khorasan, Tehran, Zanjan, Semnan, Kermanshah, Ardabil, Fars, and Kurdistan had elderly population shares exceeding 6% and are therefore expected to transition into the aged category in the near future. In particular, South Khorasan, Tehran, Zanjan, Semnan, Kermanshah, and Ardabil are likely to reach this stage sooner than the remaining provinces. In contrast, six provinces including Gilan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Hamedan, East Azerbaijan, and Isfahan were identified as aged provinces.
The total dependency ratio in Iran was 43.06. Among the 31 provinces, Gilan recorded the lowest dependency ratio at 36.43, whereas Sistan and Baluchestan exhibited the highest dependency ratio at 70.94.
The elderly dependency ratio at the national level was 8.73. Gilan had the highest elderly dependency ratio, while Sistan and Baluchestan had the lowest among the 31 provinces.
An examination of gender-specific ageing patterns across provinces revealed that, out of 31 provinces, seven exhibited male-dominated ageing, whereas 24 provinces experienced female-dominated ageing.
According to the 2016 census, the ageing coefficient for Iran as a whole was 25.42, indicating that, on average, the population structure of the country falls within the adult stage. However, this indicator varied considerably across provinces, such that it reflected a youthful population structure in Sistan and Baluchestan and an aged population structure in Gilan
Discussion
Over the past five decades, economic and social development, declining fertility rates, the consequent reduction in population growth, and increasing life expectancy led to substantial changes in the global population structure, resulting in a significant rise in the number of older adults. Iran has not been exempt from this global phenomenon, and the proportion of individuals aged 65 years and over has been steadily increasing. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to examine and analyze the status of population ageing in Iran and to perform a spatial analysis of ageing indicators at the provincial level.
According to the 2016 National Population and Housing Census, the average proportion of the elderly population (urban and rural) in Iran was 6.1%. Among Iranian provinces, Sistan and Baluchestan, with 3.2%, was identified as the youngest province, as it has the lowest proportion of elderly individuals. In contrast, Gilan Province, with 9.8%, was the oldest province in the country. Overall, the spatial distribution of ageing in Iran indicated that the southern and southeastern provinces (Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan) had the lowest proportions of elderly individuals, while the central, northwestern, and particularly northern regions of the country contain the highest shares of the population aged 65 years and over.
A comparison of the findings of this part of the study with international research [Shan & Ding, 2013; Wang & Li, 2017; Li et al., 2017; Guan et al., 2020] and domestic studies [Faraji Sabkbar et al., 2018] shows considerable consistency. These studies similarly emphasize the spatial distribution of the elderly population, regional disparities in ageing, and variations in the proportion and size of elderly populations across different regions and provinces.
Based on the United Nations three-stage population classification, the spatial distribution of ageing across Iran reveals that the southern and southeastern provinces of Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan are classified as youthful; central provinces (Isfahan and Markazi), western provinces (Hamedan), and northern and northwestern provinces (Mazandaran, Gilan, and East Azerbaijan) are categorized as aged; and the majority of the country’s territory, comprising 23 provinces, falls within the adult category. Overall, this spatial pattern indicates that youthful provinces are concentrated in the south and southeast, aged provinces are mainly located in the central and especially northern regions, and most provinces are characterized by an adult population structure. The results of this section are consistent with the findings reported by Faraji Sabkbar et al. (2018) in terms of the indicators examined.
According to the 2016 census, the total dependency ratio in Iran was 43.06%. Among the provinces, Gilan recorded the lowest dependency ratio, while Sistan and Baluchestan exhibited the highest value. Spatially, total dependency ratios in the central, western, and particularly northern regions of Iran were lower than the national average, whereas peripheral provinces showed values higher than the national average. Since this indicator reflects the level of economic well-being and saving capacity of society, regions with lower dependency ratios experience less pressure on the working population to support dependents and generally enjoy better economic conditions and higher levels of welfare. Conversely, in peripheral regions where this ratio is high, economic conditions and welfare levels tend to decline, and greater pressure is placed on economically active individuals as primary income earners.
Based on the 2016 census data, the elderly dependency ratio for Iran as a whole was 8.73%, although this ratio varied considerably across provinces. Gilan recorded the highest elderly dependency ratio, while Sistan and Baluchestan had the lowest. The spatial distribution of elderly dependency ratios shows that central and especially northern regions have values higher than the national average, whereas peripheral regions exhibit lower-than-average ratios. Higher elderly dependency ratios in central and northern provinces indicate a gradual transition in the age structure of the population, with decreasing pressures related to meeting the needs of infants, children, and adolescents, and increasing pressures associated with meeting the needs of the elderly population. In contrast, lower elderly dependency ratios in peripheral regions lead to greater economic pressure on household heads to provide for the needs of younger dependents. Nikpour and Hassan Alizadeh (2020) similarly use total dependency and elderly dependency ratios in their spatial analysis of ageing indicators in urban and rural areas of Iran, and the results of their study are consistent with the findings of the present research.
Based on the 2016 census data and the results of this study, seven out of Iran’s 31 provinces exhibited male-dominated ageing (22.58%), while 24 provinces (77.42%) experience female-dominated ageing, indicating that population ageing in Iran is predominantly feminized. The spatial distribution of gender-specific ageing showed that South Khorasan, Ardabil, Alborz, Ilam, Kerman, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, and Sistan and Baluchestan are characterized by male-dominated ageing. In general, male-dominated ageing was concentrated in the eastern and southeastern regions of the country and, to a lesser extent, in other peripheral and border provinces. In contrast, the remaining 24 provinces including northern, central, southern and southwestern (except Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad), eastern (except South Khorasan), western (except Ilam), and northwestern regions (except Ardabil) are characterized by female-dominated ageing. Overall, peripheral provinces tend to experience male-dominated ageing, while central and northern provinces predominantly exhibit female-dominated ageing. These findings are consistent with the results reported by Naib Habib (2012) regarding the feminization of ageing in Iran.
Based on the 2016 census data and the findings of the present study, the ageing coefficient (or ageing index) for Iran as a whole was 25.42. According to the classification proposed by Shryock and Siegel, populations with fewer than 15 elderly individuals per 100 children are considered youthful, those with values between 15 and 30 are classified as middle-aged, and those with values of 30 or more are regarded as aged. Accordingly, the overall population structure of Iran can be classified as middle-aged. This value reflected increased life expectancy and a decline in the population under 15 years of age due to fertility control policies implemented in Iran. However, this indicator varied substantially across provinces. In Sistan and Baluchestan, the ageing coefficient was 8.35, indicating a youthful population and identifying it as the youngest province in the country. In contrast, Gilan recorded a value of 50, reflecting a critically aged population. Among Iran’s 31 provinces, two were classified as youthful, 20 as middle-aged, and nine as aged. Spatially, the southern and southeastern provinces (Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan) were youthful; central provinces (except Qom), East Azerbaijan, and especially northern provinces were aged; and the remaining provinces, covering much of eastern, southern, southwestern, western, and northwestern Iran were classified as middle-aged.
Conclusion
The results of this study indicate that the majority of Iran’s population currently falls within the adult category, while a significant and growing proportion has entered old age. Overall, Iran has passed its youthful demographic stage and is experiencing a gradual but accelerating transition toward middle age and population ageing. This process is occurring at different rates across various regions of the country.
The increasing trend of the ageing index suggests that a demographic ageing crisis in Iran is not far from realization and should be regarded as one of the most critical challenges facing the national development planning system, with far-reaching implications across all sectors. Therefore, it is essential for Iranian policymakers and relevant authorities to adopt comprehensive and prioritized planning strategies, beginning with northern provinces, followed by central regions, then other border provinces, and finally younger provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan. These strategies should aim to create favorable conditions that promote the health, well-being, and quality of life of the elderly population, enabling them to experience this stage of life in good health and comfort.
At the same time, comprehensive fertility-related policies are necessary, including measures to facilitate and encourage marriage among young people, provide appropriate incentives and support to increase childbearing, and strengthen social and economic support systems for parents and children.
Acknowledgments: No acknowledgments were declared by the author(s).
Ethical Permission: No ethical approval was declared by the author(s).
Conflict of Interest: This article is derived from the doctoral dissertation of the third author in the field of Geography and Urban Planning, conducted under the supervision of the first author and with the advisory support of the second author in the Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tabriz.
Authors’ Contributions: Mahmoudzadeh H (First Author), Methodologist/Discussion Writer (30%); Aghayari Hir T (Second Author), Research Assistant/Introduction Writer (30%); Hatami D (Third Author), Data analyst/Principal Researcher (40%)
Funding: This research was financially supported by the Research Administration of the University of Tabriz
Keywords:
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