[Home ] [Archive]   [ فارسی ]  
:: Main :: About :: Current Issue :: Archive :: Search :: Submit :: Contact ::
:: Volume 32, Number 1 (6-2017) ::
geores 2017, 32(1): 37-50 Back to browse issues page
Estimation of Relationship between Frequency-Duration and Return Period of Extreme Climatic Events in Khorasan Razavi Province
Maryam Erfanian1, Hossein Ansari 2, Amin Alizadeh3, Mohammed Banayan Aval4
1- . Ph.D student, Department of Water Engineering Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
2- . Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
3- . Professor, Department of Water Engineering Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
4- Associate Professor, Department of Agriculture Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
Abstract:   (273 Views)

Nowadays there is more attention to extreme climatic events because of its consequent financial, social and economic damages. It is proved that changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events have more damaging effects on human life, social and natural systems than the average climate changes. Therefore, more studies are required to assess these events for better risk management. The objective of this study is to assess the relation between occurrence probability, duration and frequency of extreme events in Khorasan Razavi province. Daily temperature and rainfall data of 22 stations between the years of 1982 to 2012 were used. For more accuracy, these stations were first clustered with Ward method and were fitted by some statistical distribution. The best distribution was chosen and equations of frequency-duration-return period were derived from each cluster. One can know the frequency of extreme event with an arbitrary duration and return period based on the abovementioned relations, so these equations could help to manage risk and crisis regarding agricultural crops and also for more efficient insurance.

Keywords: Extreme events, duration, Return period, Cluster analysis, Khorasan Razavi province
Full-Text [PDF 1005 kb]   (107 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2017/06/13 | Accepted: 2017/06/13 | Published: 2017/06/13
1. Akbari, T., Masoudian, A. (2009), regionalization of temperature regions of Iran, Geography and Environmental Planning, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 59-74, (in Persian).
2. Alijani, B., Roshani, A., Parak, F., Heidari, R. (2012), trend of temperature extreme variation with using climate change indices in Iran, Geography and environmental hazards, No. 2, pp. 17-28, (in Persian).
3. ­Alizadeh, A. (2001), Principals of applied hydrology, Mashhad, Astan Ghods Razavi press, 13th edition, (in Persian).
4. Asakere, H. (2012), Variation in frequency distribution of extreme precipitation in Zanjan, Geography and Environmental Planning, No. 1, pp. 51-66, (in Persian).
5. Asgari, A., Rahim Zadeh, F., Mohammadian, Nooshin, Fatahi, E. (2007), trend analysis of extreme precipitation in Iran, Iran-Water Resources Research, No. 3, pp. 42-55 (in Persian).
6. Caprio, J. M., Quamme, H. A., Redmond, K. T. (2009), A statistical procedure to determine recent climate change of extreme daily meteorological data as applied at two locations in Northwestern North America, Climatic Change, Vol. 92, 65-81.
7. Esmaili, R., Montazeri, M., Esmail Nezhad, M., Saberhaghighat, A. (2011), climatic zoning of Khorasan Razavi province with multivariate statistical methods, Climatic researches, No.7-8, pp. 43-56, (in Persian).
8. Ghayour, H., Montazeri, M. (2004), zoning of temperature regimes in Iran with Principle Components Analysis and cluster analysis, Geography and development, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 21-34, (in Persian).
9. Gohari, A., Eslamian, S., Abedi-Koupaei, J., Massah Bavani, A., Wang, D., Madani, K. (2013), Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Science of the total environment, vol. 442, 405-419.
10. IPCC, (2007), In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L. (Eds.), Climate Change (2007), The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to The Fourth Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom/ New York, USA. 996 pp.
11. Kattenberg, A. Filippo G. (2001), The scientific of climate change, The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp. 156-159.
12. Khosravi, M., Nazari Pour, H. (2010), cluster analysis in identifying rainy days characteristics (Khash station), geographical space, No. 31, pp. 65-90, (in Persian).
13. Masoudian, A., Darand, M. (2010), identifying and zoning of cold extreme temperature of Iran, Arid regions geographic studies, No. 2, pp. 43-54, (in Persian).
14. Masoudian, A., Darand, M. (2011), synoptic analysis of cold extreme temperature in Iran, Geography and development, No. 22, pp. 165-185, (in Persian).
15. Masoudian, A., Darand, M. (2012), Space-time analysis of cold days trend in Iran, Geographical Research, No. 2 (105), pp. 37-56, (in Persian).
16. Matthes, H., Rinke, A. Dethloff, K. (2009), Variability of observed temperature- derived climate indices in the Arctic, Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 69, pp. 214-224.
17. Mohammadi, H., Taghavi, F. (2005), trend of precipitation and temperature indices in Tehran, Geographical Research, No. 53, pp. 151-172, (in Persian).
18. Montazeri, M. (2009), Space-time analysis of daily extreme precipitation in Iran, Geography and Environmental Planning, No. 20 (34), pp. 125-140, (in Persian).
19. Montazeri, M. (2011), identifying temperature seasons with cluster analysis in Iran, Geographical Research, Vol. 26, No. 2 (101), pp. 173-198, (in Persian).
20. Naveau, P., Nogaj, M., Ammann, C., Yiou, P., Cooley, D. Jomelli, V. (2005), Statistical methods for the analysis of climate extremes, Comptes Rendus Geoscience, Vol. 337, pp. 1013-1022.
21. Peterson, T.C., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A. Plummer, N. (2001), Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs 1998-2001, World Meteorological organization, Technical Document, No. 1071, World Meteorological organization, Geneva, pp. 143.
22. Peterson, T. C., Taylor, M.A., Demeritte, R., Duncombe, D.L., Burton, S., Thompson, F., Porter, A., Mercedes, M., Villegas, E., Semexant Fils, R., Klein Tank, A., Martis, A., Warner, R., Joyette, A., Mills, W., Alexander, L., Gleason, B. (2002), Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region, Journal of Geophysical Research. Vol. 107 (D21) ,pp. 1-19.
23. Rahim Zadeh, F., Hedayat dezfooli, A., Pour Asgharian, A. (2011), trend and jump evaluation of extreme temperature and rain indices in Hormozgan province, Geography and development, No. 21, pp. 97-116, (in Persian).
24. Salahuddin, A., Curtis, S. (2011), Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea, Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 78, pp. 83-91.
25. Taghavi, F. (2010), Linkage between Climate Change and Extreme Events in Iran, Journal of the Earth and Space Physics. Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 33-43.
26. Taghavi, F., Naseri, M., Bayat, B., Motevalian, S., Azadi fard, D. (2011), The Identification of Climatic Patterns of Iran Based on Spectral Analysis and Clustering of Precipitation and Temperature Extreme Values, Natural Geography researches, No. 77, pp. 109-124, (in Persian).
27. World Meteorological organization, (2013), The global climate 2001-2010, a decade of climate extremes, summary report, No. 1119, pp. 16-22.
28. Yang, T., Hao, X., Shao, Q., Xu, C., Zhao, C., Chen, X., Wang, W. (2012), Multi-model ensemble projection in temperature and precipitation extremes of the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century, Global and Planetary Change, 80-81, pp. 1-13.
29. Zahraee, B., Roozbahani, A. (2007), Clustering of meteorological signals with respect to rain variation (case study: rain prediction of Sistan and Baluchestan province), Watershed Science & Engineering of Iran, No. 2, pp. 21-29, (in Persian).
30. Zhang, Q., Xu, C., Zhang, Z., Chen, Y., David, L., Lin, H. (2008), Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 353, Issues 3–4, pp. 215-227.
31. Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., Kutaladze, N., Rahimzadeh, F., Taghipour, A., Hantosh, T.H., Albert, P., Semawi, M., Karam Ali, M., Said Al-Shabibi, M., Al-Oulan, Z., Zatari, T., Khelet, I., Hamoud, S., Sagir, R., Demircan, M., Eken, M., Adiguzel, M., Alexander, L., Peterson, T. C., Wallis, T. (2005), Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, pp. 1-12.
32. Zhu, Y., Toth, Z. (2001), Extreme Weather Events and Their Probabilistic Prediction by the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System, Proceedings of the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impact, and Responses, Albuquerque, USA.
33. Zongxing, L., He, Y., Wang, P., Theakstone, W. H., An, W., Wang, X., Lu, A., Zhang, W., Cao, W. (2012), Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961-2008. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 80-81, pp. 255-272.
Send email to the article author

Add your comments about this article
Your username or email:

Write the security code in the box >

DOI: 10.18869/acadpub.geores.32.1.37

XML   Persian Abstract   Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Erfanian M, Ansari H, Alizadeh A, Banayan Aval M. Estimation of Relationship between Frequency-Duration and Return Period of Extreme Climatic Events in Khorasan Razavi Province. geores. 2017; 32 (1) :37-50
URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-101-en.html
Volume 32, Number 1 (6-2017) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.047 seconds with 827 queries by yektaweb 3461